I have received some complaints from other forum users that my "Dead Forex Firms Walking Dead Pool" amounts to nothing more than scare tactics since the rule hasn't passed and since no one is yet required to meet the proposed $5 million capital requirement. In short, these little firms are being given a bum rap.
But those critics are missing the big picture. The Dead Pool is not meant to be fair. It is meant to single out those firms that have a low probability of meeting the proposed capital requirement (keep in mind Currency Trader Magazine said the proposal could possibly “wipe out 90% of the industry.”) The counter argument to that is some of those firms have additional capital they aren’t showing in the CFTC Capital Reports. That may be so but how is the average trader to know that absent firms showing us their company financials? My critics insist the onus of responsibility to find this out is on me because I am putting these firms on the Dead Pool list but I say the onus of responsibility is on the firms because it is they who are soliciting customers to trade at their firms.
Why the Dead Pool? Because traders should be aware of the very precarious state these firms may find themselves in should the rule pass. The time to know this information is BEFORE a firm goes under, not after it has gone under. That is why I have included so many stories in this thread detailing the demise of so many poorly capitalized firms. The CFG case in particular is an instructive one I encourage everyone to read.
True, CFG was undercapitalized while the firms in the Dead Pool are currently meeting their capital requirement. But the NFA was taken by surprise when they checked CFG’s books, who as late as January of this year showed they were meeting their capital requirement too. My point is “low capitalization” can quickly lead to “undercapitalization.” And while the firms on the dead pool are not undercapitalized (I take back any comments to the contrary regarding undercapitalized firms on the dead pool), they are poorly capitalized and thus a lot more likely to go out of business should this rule pass.
Finally, I want to make clear I'm not saying all these firms will be going out of business should the new capital requirement be adopted. Surely some will survive. And it should also be noted that a firm’s month to month Adjusted Net Capital on the CFTC’s website can change radically from one month to the next. While I joked about I Trade FX with the line “Run Forrest Run” after they posted negative capital for one month I never stated I Trade FX was bankrupt and their current Adjusted Net Capital figure shows them to have close to $4 million which means they are one of the most likely firms to survive the proposed capital increase. So the CFTC capital requirement figures are not the end all be all in this debate. That I will grant my critics.
But at the moment, that report is the only independent source for checking a firm’s financial health. As such it carries tremendous weight and needs to be closely followed by the trading public in addition to the many other things a trader should do when checking on a firm before they open an account.