Hmm, I have to say this is rather messy in my head right now. Whether the rouletter has hit M 500 times before it doesnt mean it has a better chance of hitting an L or H the next, unless it is because it's programmed. Each choice has a 1/3 chance, it's not like there is a limited amount of H's, L's and M's. In the end there will be a somewhat equal number of H's L's and M'l but the past cannot predict the future when its outcome is independent.
Once again though I think it is because of the software, it might choose a random sequence. For example it will try to not make the same choice appear more than 30 times out of 35 or something...
Think about it though, this math is more of take a marble out of the bag and put it back in then shake and take another one. It is not take a marble out, keep it out and choose another one. What I mean by that is this:
If there are 10 H's, 10L's and 10M's then chosing an H, L or M is each 1/3 change. If you then get 5 M's in a row, the chances of getting an H will not be 10/25 (2/5) but still 1/3. I think this is either a software issue or just a psychological reaction. If you choose to roll a die and say for example 1,2 is H, 3,4 is M and 5,6 is L... You'll probably get the same results.
Now on a related note of predicting the future based on the passed:
I think the best way to read the currency market is just to go with a moving trend, telling the future is near impossible. I've never really been into those neurologic things but I know that technical analysis should not be based on a past move but past REACTIONS. What we have to base the trades on are how the market reacts to things such as those triple candle moves in the same direction etc. Sometimes these things are temporary such as it goes up for one more candle and then the market goes crazy again in different directions. This is why I aim for such a small amount of profit per trade, these small trends can go crazy later but if you get in on that one last step of sanity, there is a lot of profit to be gotten.
Scorpion, I think we should make an RSX or some kind of short term trader that can close trades with less than 5 pips. What I mean by this is a TP that is within the expert itself not metatrader so it acts as a human would close it. I know metatrader doesnt accept you putting a take profit smaller than 5 pips but closing it manually works, so why not make an expert do it for us?
Let me if anything like that has ever been done or has been filtered out.
