Midday Technical Analysis for Thursday August 3 2006
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Midday Technical Analysis: FX await press conferences J-C Trichet
The dollar has insignificantly strengthened the positions against the basic currencies, however, remains nearby achieved before local minima. Activity in the market now is insignificant, as investors prefer to wait press conferences of the president of the European Central Bank of Jean - Claude Triсhet in which the further actions can be outlined concerning toughening a credit policy.
Practically there are no doubts concerning that today ECB will raise the interest rate up to 3 %, however now there are fears, that in a kind of growth of inflationary pressure and considering certificates of revival of economy of region, rates of growth of rates can be increased.
Let's remind, that published in the beginning to week the data have testified that fact that rates of growth of industrial activity in Europe remain in area of the maximal values for last six years, and a rate of unemployment in Germany, the largest economy of region, has decreased to a minimum level for last two years.
The rate of inflation in region the third month keeps at a level of 2.5 % successively and within one and a half years exceeds target level ECB of 2 %.
EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2834 (high 08.02.2006), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006)
Supports
1.2740 (today low), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)
GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8800 (target and psychological level), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8555 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel)
CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2423/39 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178)
JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)