Early Technical Analysis for Monday August 7 2006
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Early Technical Analysis: Rally or Correction?
The beginning of the week is traditionally poor on macroeconomic news. The pound can appear under pressure in case of output forecastles data on industrial production: decrease in rates of growth on monthly basis and negative value on annual.
In the evening there will be an index of Consumer crediting in the USA. Usually it does not render influence on the market, but it is necessary to remember, the forecast - decrease in volume of crediting is negative for dollar.
During a week intermediate term events of the market will be defined by two factors:The USA FRS decision on a discount rate (Tuesday) and the data on the International trade balance the USA (Thursday).
EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Bullish
Resistances
1.2908 (Friday’s high 08.04.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006), 1.3043 (76.4% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640)
Supports
1.2834 (high 08.02.2006), 1.2778 (61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978)
GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.9127 (Friday’s high 08.04.2006), 1.9145 (high 02.18.2004), 1.9177 (towards 61.8% projection of 1.7229 to 1.9023 from 1.8089)
Supports
1.8913 (Thursday’s high 08.03.2006), 1.8795 (short time ascending trend line from low at 07.25.2006 at 1.8383 to low 08.03.2006 at 1.8700), 1.8680 (23.6% retracement from 1.7229 to 1.9127)
CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend – Bearish
Resistances
1.2285 (50.0% retracement from 1.3284 to 1.1920), 1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2395 (the top part of “orchid” channel)
Supports
1.2190/80 (Friday’s low at 1.2190, low 06.05.2006 at 1.2185 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2180), 1.2049 (38.2% retracement from 1.3284 to 1.1287), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)
JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.53 (high 08.04.2006), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.63 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.63 and 61.8% retracement from 121.38 to 108.96)
Supports
113.97 (Friday’s low 08.04.2006), support 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 111.32 (low 06.02.2006)