December 11, 2006 - December 15, 2006
GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY
Last week USD/JPY couple correction brought out. On Monday it reached a new minimum in the 114.50 level area and then on Friday increased up to 116.50.
Script 1 (20%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 114.50 - 116.60 area.
Recommencement of side exchange fluctuations within the 114.40-116.60 region can be expected. But the chances of it are bad. Last week the lower fluctuations limit fell to 114.40. But there wasn?t less than 114.00 limit decline there. The upward trend up to 116.60 says about high probability of overcoming of this limit as well. Stated side exchange fluctuations limits overcoming will lead to the next two scripts development.
Script 2 (40%): The downward trend to the 113.40-114.00 area.
The course decline can continue in case of fixing below 114.50. In that case the nearest decline target of the 113.40-114.00 region will easily be reached during the week. After that the correcting rebound can occur again.
Script 3 (40%): The correcting upward trend up to 117.40/60.
The couple has increased more than 100 pips up to 116.50 during Friday. It is not improbable that it will rise above the 116.60 level to the 117.50 area. Classically it will be a course technical need to test a broken neck line below (117.00/40 region) ? ?head-and-shoulders? shape script. After such rising further downward trend to the calculated decline target region is to be expected.
The major resistance and support levels :
Resistance
116.60 the nearest critical resistance region ? broken support
117.50 the neck line region of ?head and shoulders? shape
117.70 the long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance
Support
114.40 the last week reached supports
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimum
109.00 May yearly minimum as a long-range target of the current decline
