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Daily Currency report for Tuesday February 13 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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This Week's Economic Calendar






DateETReleaseForActualBriefing.comConsensusPriorRevised FromFeb 1214:00Treasury BudgetJan $40.0B$40.0B$21.0B Feb 1308:30Trade BalanceDec -$59.7B-$59.5B-$58.2B Feb 1408:30Retail SalesJan 0.5%0.3%0.9% Feb 1408:30Retail Sales ex-autoJan 0.6%0.3%1.0% Feb 1410:00Business InventoriesDec -0.1%0.4%0.4% Feb 1410:30Crude Inventories02/09 NANA-449K Feb 1508:30Export Prices ex-ag.Jan NANA0.5% Feb 1508:30Import Prices ex-oilJan NANA0.4% Feb 1508:30Initial Claims02/10 310KNA311K Feb 1508:30NY Empire State IndexFeb 10.011.09.1 Feb 1509:00Net Foreign PurchasesDec $60.0B$68.4B Feb 1509:15Industrial ProductionJan 0.1%0.0%0.4% Feb 1509:15Capacity UtilizationJan 81.7%81.7%81.8% Feb 1512:00Philadelphia FedFeb 2.05.08.3 Feb 1608:30Housing StartsJan 1590K1610K1642K Feb 1608:30Building PermitsJan 1570K1590K1613K Feb 1608:30PPIJan -0.6%-0.6%0.9% Feb 1608:30Core PPIJan 0.2%0.2%0.2% Feb 1610:00Mich Sentiment-Prel.Feb 97.597.096.9
EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.2980, 1.2920

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:the euro has dropped slightly to 1.2950, now roughly in the middle of the range which has prevailed for 5 weeks and at the 61.8% retracement level from the low to the high. Unfortunately, this means that swings could still go either way and and trade ideas are close to a 50/50 bet. However, weekly momentum remains just bullish and support levels are easily recognised at 1.2950, 1.2900 and the major range bottom at 1.2880. For today, we will continue with the same strategy of buying dips at these levels, with tight stops and only on clear sins of basing. We need to break above 1.3050 to begin the next significant rally, but a drop below 1.2880 (look at daily charts for the possible "bearish flag") will probably lead to a sharp decline towards 1.2820 and possibly even lower to 1.2650.

EUR/USD Hourly chart: