A-B-C-D Trade - page 214

Gold spikes down to 1828

Large spike down in gold and CFD XAU_USD. Our recently posted fib channels acting as good support levels, as pic shows 314.2 there prior to small bounce back up to 261.8.

Could be large institutional holders shedding some gold. Could even be SNB.

As XAU_USD continued to push downward today, perhaps in a transfer of money back into equities, we needed more support lines for our last plot.

As with other fib tools, we moved the 2nd point (B1) from the Moon 135-degree to the next level down, which is the Moon 90-degree (B2).

Horizontal yellow fibs: High 1920.88 Low = 1858.79

The spike down, as we mentioned, is now on the 100% and that is the Moon 0-degree.

At the end of the European session, price broke out to the downside further and landing on the 200% (same as Moon 270-degree).

We can clearly see the breakout levels. When we have good S&R plots, we can anticipate these breakouts and formulate exit levels. Conversely, bounce trade opportunities also become clearer.

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Some analysts expected a bump up on gold after the Swiss National Bank's verbal intervention. We expected gold weakening short-term, per our previous posts.

Gold started weakening before the SNB statement. However, much of the rush of money leaving short swissy positions had to be converted back into USD. This helped drive gold lower.

There were also probably some traders booking profit on gold to cover their losses on stocks and swissy shorts.

USOIL double top 89.71 and near previous Sept 1st high 89.88, ahead of FED Beige Book.

Attached split-screen shows fib channels on left and horizontal extension fibs on right. Now just bounced down to 200% fib channel, 89.11.

Here is an informative article impacting oil, released by bloomberg about 2 hours ago.

It explains the recent push up on oil, with many expecting a lower inventory, along with another "possible" hurricane developing in the next few days

Oil Rises on Forecast Supply Decline as Storm Threatens Gulf - Bloomberg

End of day US30 and SPX500 stalled at 11,400 and 1198 respectively. Short oil positions are mostly scalps.

Andrew's Pitchfork plot on SPX500 1-hour chart:

Handle = Aug 17th 14:00 high 1208.10

Upper corner = Aug 31st 14:00 high 1230.90

Lower corner = Aug 22nd 06:00 low 1117.40

The location selected for the Lower corner was unconventional as it was not the lowest in the neighborhood. However, it was the result of finding a price hit to the median line (middle fork), which occurred on Sept 5th-6th.

That validates the plot and we saw the upper fork line provide resistance that aligned with the Sept 2nd high of 1202.40. This was recently touched at 22:00.

Switching to a lower time-frame, we watch for some evidence of adherence prior to SELL. Using a 15-min trigger for entry is also an option. The 15-min EFT had 23:30 entry of 1202.00,

Retrace plot Low = 1137.40 High = 1202.80

23.6% = 1187.40

Tighter plot uses Low = 1173.40. Its 50% = 1188.30

Updated charts from last plots with PSQ9 & fib channels:

EUR/USD 1-hour

We last mentioned bottom at the channel's 314.2%, just below Moon 270.

Price rebounded to Mars 180 Sept 7th 08:00, which was a 50% retracement from Spike caused by SNB manipulation.

Price bounced around and made another peak at 20:00 (1.41028) at the 138.2 channel. We plot a trend line (TL) from Sept 6th 11:00 high 1.41868 and this peak.

Price respected that TL and bounce down off of it at Sept 8th 07:00, to the downside revisiting Low and touching the 423.5 channel during 12:00 candle period.

USOIL 1-hour

We last mentioned approach to Sept 1st previous high of 89.88 (yellow).

Price retreated from the 261.8 channel with double top at price 89.71, to the 23.6% retrace fib (88.95) based on Low = Sept 7th 09:00 price of 86.49.

Note that this was just ahead of American Petroleum Institute's crude inventory report. This is not listed in economic calendar, but was in the article we linked.

In other words, the market was anticipating that particular report will come out at a lower inventory figure. Trader shaved a few pips on the retrace prior to report.

Part 2

The Department of Energy (DOE) U.S. Crude Inventories report is due out today at 14:30 GMT. This is the major play.

Price made a high at the 314.2 channel marking high of 90.19 yesterday at 20:00. Price retraced 38.2% to 88.78 on 07:00, supported by the 161.8 channel. Wick probed to 138.2 channel.

The Low for that retrace plot is the same at 86.49. After retrace, price climbed back up to yellow 89.88 at 14:00 ahead of data.

XAU_USD 30-min

As mentioned, price bottomed at 200% channel and 200% horizontal fib extension on Sept 7th 14:00.

For the subsequent rise, we plotted horizontal fibs (blue):

Low = Sept 7th 14:00 1792.34 High = Sept 7th 16:30 1829.02

All major extension leevls respected.

The 100% channel (same as Moon 0-degree) caught the 138.2 extension.

The 61.8 channel and Moon 45-degree caught the 200% extension.

Charts did not attach, here they are.

Here is updated and zoom-in on SPX plot per last post. We identified the area for take-profit (TP) at 1188 (green zone on chart).

The wide plot is in blue and tight in white.

Price made a retrace to the white 38.2% fib of 1192 at 07:00 this morning. The bounce up revisited high area and also contained by TL (yellow). This is also another short opportunity on revisit.

TP zone hit during 12:00 candle period, probing to 1185.90.

This trade opportunity to the TP captured 12.00 with decent tight S/L of no more than 3.00. That's a R/R of 4:1.

EUR/USD

Pair testing low of 1.39520

Move B to Moon 0-degree.

If price declines during this candle period, support at 200% channel 1.3910.