Week forecast for USD/JPY

[Halling]

February 12, 2007 - February 16, 2007

View on USD/JPY: steep turn

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+2484 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

The market brings surprises. In spite of USD/JPY course fall till the new correction minimum of 120.00 in the middle of the week nothing could prevent it to rise until 121.70. From the technical side we watch a rebound from 119.90 as the earlier broken out top of 2006 which now classically comes out as a support. And now a decline under 120.00 can find a postponement...

Last week the correction minimums were renewed again and the pair achieved 120.00, but could not break out a limit of 119.90. The level classically comes out as a support because earlier it was a resistance of 2006. Medium USD/JPY pair increase over 120.70 brought to a further rise and reaching for 121.70 by the end of the week. The situation is interesting and uncertain. Our second script was fulfilled: (30%) "Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 121.80 area". The correction goes on and a rebound from the important support makes for further USD/JPY course increase.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 122.20 area.
The pair is remaining in the current fluctuations range 119.90-122.20, in which it has been contained for a month already and can trade there for a week or two until the high or low limits do not be broken out.

Script 2 (30%): An upward trend to 125.70.
A quick breakout of 122 shape up is required for this script. In this case the former resistance area of 122.00/20 will come out as a support next. The target is 125.70.

Script 3 (30%): A downward trend to 119.00.
A breakout of the support area of 120.00/20 down is required for this script. Then this area will come out as a resistance. The nearest target is 118.50/119.00 area. This script may designate for fluctuations for the next few months and lead to deeper fall in the future.

Resistances
121.90 - the resistance projection line from the January's top.
122.20 - the January, 2007 maximum
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance
135.00 - the longstanding maximums level in the beginning of 2002 year

Supports
120.50 - the estimated line support area according to Jan/Feb 2007 minimums.
119.90/120.00 - the February support area and the broken up maximum of 2006 year
118.90 - the important supports lines region
118.00 - the January, 2007 minimum

[Halling]

February 19, 2007 - February 23, 2007

View on USD/JPY: long-expected downward trend

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+2004 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

The market keeps on bringing surprises. During the last week USD/JPY course came down with almost 300 pips: from the longstanding maximums in 122-shape area to the new correction minimums in 119-shape area. 119.90 top level of 2006 which classically came out as a support during the last three weeks turned out to be broken downward. Now deeper slide to 118.00 and possibly under may follow.

Last week our third script was fulfilled: (30%) - "a downward trend to 119.00". The yen rallied last week and USD/JPY course slid sharply from the up fluctuations margin of 122.00 to the upper one of 120.00. 119.90 level was broken down following which course slid sharply to the support line in 119.00-shape area. There is fair chance of the further USD/JPY course decline and achievement of 116.00-118.00 area during the next two or three weeks.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.00 - 120.00 area.
The pair may make a new side fluctuations range 119.00-120.00, beside the reached and broken out margins. Slide or rise will lead at the least to 100 pips movement to a breakout side.

Script 2 (40%): A downward trend to 118.00.
The 119.00 support break down is necessary for this script. The nearest decline target is January minimum level of 118.00. This script may lead to a deeper decline to the 116.60 level area where May, 2006 minimum trend line is situated.

Script 3 (20%): An upward trend to 121.00.
A sharp break above of the 120-shape is necessary for this script. 121.00 level (the middle of the previous range of 120-122) may come out a resistance line and lead to rebound with the following decline and the second script fulfillment. We don't expect for rising above 121-122 as yet.

Resistances
119.90 - the broken out support of the last three weeks - the top of 2006.
121.00 - the estimated resistance of the middle of the previous channel 120-122.
122.20 - the January, 2007 maximum.
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance in October and November.

Supports
119.00 - the last week support and the important supports lines region.
118.00 - the January, 2007 minimum.
116.60 - the May, 2006 support line region - yearly trend line. The broken out downward trend line from 1998 is in the same place.
114.50 - the local correction minimum of 2006 in December.

[Halling]

February 26, 2007 - March 02, 2007

View on USD/JPY: with its last bit of strength?

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+1241 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

USD/JPY currency pair was very volatile and unpredictable within the last two weeks. Last week the pair raised almost 200 pips higher till the 121.00 level what almost graded 300-pips decline the week before last from 122 till 119. The fluctuations range is still the same. The situation is uncertain.

Last week our third script was fulfilled: (20%) - "An upward trend to 121.00". Within the week the pair sharply rose from the lower fluctuations margin of 119.00 which was achieved the week before last to almost the upper margin of 122.00. The weekly maximum is 121.60. Closing is on 121.00. The situation is uncertain. The scripts of decline to the 118-shape were broken. And nevertheless in consideration of the current high course level there is a high probability of USD/JPY course decline to the 119-120.00 area within the next week. The future trends are uncertain. Everything will depend on the pair behavior next to the dominant margins and theirs breakouts.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.50 - 121.50 area.
The pair has made a new side fluctuations range of 119.00-122.00. But new fluctuations may just touch those margins not to attaining them. Slide or rise will lead to at the least 150-200 pips movement to a breakout side within several days.

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 118.00.
The 119.00/50 support break down is necessary for this script. The nearest decline target is January minimum level of 118.00. This script may lead to a deeper decline to the 116.60 level area in the future where May, 2006 minimum trend line is situated.

Script 3 (30%): An upward trend to 125.00.
A sharp break above of the 122-shape is necessary for this script. February resistance area of 121.60/122.10 may come out an obstacle and lead to a rebound developing the first script. But this region breakout above will become a signal for the further rise with an outlook of rising to the 2002 levels area of 124.00-125.80.

Resistances
121.60 - the last week maximum.
122.10 - the February maximum - monthly resistance.
122.20 - the January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance in October and November.

Supports
119.90 - the intermediate level - the previous support and the previous resistance.
119.00 - the week before last minimum and the important supports lines region.
118.00 - the January, 2007 minimum.
116.60 - the May, 2006 support line region - yearly trend line. The broken out downward trend line from 1998 is in the same place.

[Halling]

March 05, 2007 - March 09, 2007

View on USD/JPY: has plumbed

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+1555 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

This week USD/JPY currency pair committed that which it could not be able to the week before last when 119.90 support level was broken out. This time nothing could prevent USD/JPY to fall.

Last week our second script was partly fulfilled: (30%) - "A downward trend to 118.00". Because pair decline did not even "noticed" the 118.00 level, January minimum which came out just an interweek support. The pair went on further and by the end of the week achieved December, 2006 levels, the two-month minimums. A technical picture is not still in favor of dollar.

Script 1 (50%): A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 area.
This script logically continues a downward course trend. The achieved 116.40 support break down is necessary for this script. Decline target is December minimum level of 114.40. This script may lead to a deeper decline to 109.00 level area in the future where May, 2006 minimum trend line is situated.

Script 2 (30%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 116.00 - 118.00 area.
When the pair achieves the support in the 116-shape area it may be trading sideways within a new correction range of 116.00-118.00. After that a new decline will follow as in our first script described. Though rising to 118.00 and above will lead to the third script development.

Script 3 (10%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 116.00 - 119.00 area.
A break above of the 118.00-level is necessary for this script. The broken February support area (119-shape) may come out an obstacle and lead to a rebound developing the first script next. We do not expect though for pair rising above 119.00/90 area within the next few weeks.

Script 4 (10%): A downward trend to 114.00.
A sharp break down of December minimum 114.40 is necessary for this script. Decline target is May, 2006 minimum level of 109.00.

Resistances
118.00 - expected resistance of the broken January support.
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
116.80 - May, 2006 support line region - yearly trend line. The broken out downward trend line from 1998 is in the same place.
116.00/40 - last week achieved region - expected intermediate support.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
109.00 - May, 2006 minimum.

[Halling]

March 12, 2007 - March 16, 2007

View on USD/JPY: double bottom

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+2525 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

Last week USD/JPY currency pair established a new minimum and then went on to a correction. The 115.20 level unexpectedly came out as a support. The pair has almost come to December, 2006 minimum at 114.40. Then unexpected ascending impulse led to a sharp rise to the 118-shape area. Double bottom was left below.

It is very hard to forecast exactly the currency fluctuations after its 700-pip decrease for the last 4 weeks. Last week our two scripts were partly fulfilled: "A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 area" (50%) and "Side exchange fluctuations within the 116.00-119.00 area" (10%). In the beginning of the week the pair easily decreased to the new minimum levels from December, 2006 at 115.20, but December minimum at 114.40 was never achieved. The further correction to the upside made prospect for greater rise. At 4-hour chart there is a double bottom shape. Now an uptrend to 118.50-119.00 is supposed. Thus it is possible to expect for the pair decrease after any correction maximum has been met.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 117.00-119.00 area.
Current correction may remain in 117.00-119.00 range. The low margin is the double bottom neck line, and the upper margin is the mentioned shape workout target.

Script 2 (40%): A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 area.
A neck line break down at 117.00 level area is necessary for this script. A potential target price for this downtrend stands at the December, 2006 minimum. This script is also logically continues a downward course trend. This script may lead in the future to deeper decline to the May, 2006 minimum area at the 109.00 level.

Script 3 (10%): An upward trend to 120.00.
It must not be ruled out a higher increase, admittedly to the 120.00/120.90 level area. Thus, after such an upward trend a following downward trend is expected.

Resistances
118.50 - expected double bottom shape level.
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
117.00 - neck line area.
115.20 - last week achieved support.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
109.00 - May, 2006 minimum.

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[Halling]

March 19, 2007 - March 23, 2007

View on USD/JPY: shape after the shape

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+ 1924 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our Forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service.

The upward rebound from the 115.20 level in the beginning of March didn't lead to upper rise. Last week the pair consolidated at the 115.50-118.00 range, making a triangle fluctuations range. This formation can lead to the next course decline in the future.

Last week no one of our scripts was fulfilled exactly. Thus the pair exactly achieved the estimated by the double bottom shape target 118.50 (see the technical levels in the last review). A technical picture remains to be descending.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the three-cornered 116.10-118.40 area.
Current correction may remain in the bounds of the triangle. The break out of the limits will lead to the next two scripts.

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 113.00-114.00 area.
A bottom triangle line break down at 116.10 is necessary for this script. After that a potential downward target, the December, 2006 minimum area, will be achieved firstly. That will lead to a deeper decline in the future, while to the 113.00 level area, triangle workout target.

Script 3 (20%): An upward trend to 121.00.
It must not be ruled out this script, because an upside break out of the triangle may occur (the upper limit is 118.40). Thus, after such an upward trend a following downward trend to the March minimums is expected.

Resistances
118.50 - double bottom shape workout target - last week maximum (upper triangle bound is a bit below).
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
115.70/116.10 - last week support area, bottom triangle line as well.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
109.00 - May, 2006 minimum.

[Halling]

March 26, 2007 - March 30, 2007

View on USD/JPY: the triangle applies

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week our first script was fulfilled: "Side exchange fluctuations within the three-cornered 116.10-118.40 area" (50%). Though the bottom margin wasn't achieved, the course kept to the upper margin. Now decline/rebound to the bottom margin area is to be expected.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the three-cornered 116.60-118.30 area.
Current correction may remain in the bounds of the triangle. The break out of the limits will lead to the next two scripts.

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 113.00-114.00 area.
A bottom triangle line break down at 116.60 is necessary for this script. After that, firstly a potential downward target 114.40, the December, 2006 minimum area, will be achieved. That will lead to a deeper decline in the future, while to the 113.00 level area, triangle workout target.

Script 3 (20%): An upward trend to 121.00.
It must not be ruled out this script, because an upside break out of the triangle may occur (the upper limit is 118.30). But, after such an upward trend to the 120-121 area a following downward trend to the March minimums is expected.

Resistances
118.30/50 - the last two weeks resistances (upper triangle bound).
119.00/119.90 - the broken February support area.
121.60/122.20 - February resistance.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.

Supports
116.60 - bottom triangle line.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum.
114.40 - December, 2006 minimum.
113.00 - supported nearest fall target.

[Halling]

The Yen Forecast, May, 23 2007

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+1369 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service.

The USD currency renewed three-month maximums against the yen as policy meeting minutes indicated the Bank of Japan plans to keep interest rates unchanged this year.
USD/JPY has tested the Y121.80 resistance level and come back to Y121.65.
"The interest-rate differential story is talking, pushing down the yen, " said Koichi Yoshikawa, head of currency trading at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. "The yen's weakening trend is likely to continue to 122 a dollar today." Traders of interest-rate futures priced in lower odds the Fed will reduce its target rate for overnight lending between banks from 5.25 percent.
Japan's currency also traded near a record low of 163.93 per euro set on May 21 as a Japanese government report this week will show consumer prices probably declined last month. A drop in prices lessens the need for the Bank of Japan to raise its overnight lending rate from 0.5 percent.
The carry trade has remained intact however downside risks prevail as BoJ eyes further rate increases in the long term. For now, USDJPY remains bullish.
"We still have a weak yen, the carry trade continues," said Chris Furness, head of currency strategy at 4CAST Ltd. in London. "The carry trade will carry on for quite some time."

Technique on USD/JPY:

Resistance level 3: Y122.80
Resistance level 2: Y122.00
Resistance level 1: Y121.80
Current price: Y121.69
Support level1: Y121.20
Support level2: Y120.50
Support level3: Y119.50

Comments: the pair trades lower yesterday's maximums at Y121.80. The main target to gain remains at Y122.00 (February's maximum). The nearest support line is at Y121.20. This level breakdown will open a way to Y120.50. The more important support line is at Y119.50 (the May, 11 minimum).

[Halling]

May 28, 2007 - June 01, 2007

View on USD/JPY: again at the long standing maximums

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+384 pips - this is the trades result for the last week of our forex traders' signals.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service.

USD/JPY is shifting focus to the January-February 122.10/122.20 double top. Last week was the fifth week of declines for the Yen, the longest since a 6-week trend in September-October 2005. Last Wednesday 121.90 high would mark minor resistance before 122.10 next resistance. The main support is still at the 120.50 level.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 121.00-122.20 area.
Next week the course is possible to remain in the region achieved of 121-122 (testing the January's maximum at 122.20), afterwards the further direction will get obvious (either break out 122.20 up or decline to the bottom of the fluctuations range).

Script 2 (30%): A downward trend to 119.50/120.00 to the March trend line testing.
An upward trend line lies in the 120.00 level region. It is very possible the pair decline to it, afterwards either a new upward impulse with the 122.20 level achieving/breaking may occur or trend line break down with a further decline to 118.00 (115-116 in prospect).

Script 3 (30%): An upward trend above 122.20.
It must not be ruled out the January's top level 122.20 break up. It may be both a short term impulse with a decline following to 121.00 and the beginning of an upward trend to 125.00 level region.

Resistances
121.90 - the last week resistance (a new May's minimum).
122.10 - the upper margin of the upward fluctuations channel.
122.20 - January, 2007 maximum - yearly resistance.
125.00 - expected rise target level if 122.20 breaking out.

Supports
120.50/70 - the last two weeks support.
120.00 - March rising trend lines, key support.
117.60 - April, 2007 minimum, upper triangle line support as well.
115.20 - March, 2007 yearly minimum - yearly support.

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[Halling]

June 25, 2007 - June 29, 2007

View on USD/JPY: the flight is going well, for now

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

+1532 pips - this is the trade result for the last week for our forex signals providers.
More details at our web-site: Forex Signals Service .

The US dollar has grown last week up to longstanding maximums in 124-shape area against the Japanese yen and keeps on its rise. And it is very likely it will hit 2002 year local maximums at 125.00/80 in the next couple days. But the rise can’t be endless. So it is very possible it will go back down soon.

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 123.10-124.50 area.
Current rising can stay in the region achieved with just side exchange fluctuations within the 123.10-124.50 area.

Script 2 (30%): A correction decline to 122.20.
It is very likely a correction downward trend to the broken key resistance area at 122.15/20 with a following upward rebound.

Script 3 (30%): A further upward trend hitting 125-shape area.
Next week a further course rising hitting 125-shape area is very much expected. The target is at 125.00/80 area.

Resistances
124.15 - last week maximum.
124.70 - intermediate resistance.
125.00 - expected rise target.
125.80 - 2002 year local maximum.

Supports
123.10/123.30 - last week support.
122.20 - the broken key resistance, now expected key support.
121.70 - March current upward trend line.
120.80 - June and May level supports.

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