[Halling]

GFSignals team (http://www.gfsignals.com) provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

USD/JPY for a month has been fluctuating within the limits of 200 pips of a range of 116.60 - 118.60. The couple keeps on testing a long-range line of downward trend and every week closes below it.

This week the following USD/JPY couple behaviour alternatives are possible:
1. Further sideway fluctuations. Fluctuations within a range of 116.60 - 118.60 may continue especially in the first half of the week. One of the levels break may lead to two others alternatives development. But range extension above to 119.00 is possible.
This is most likely outcome.

2. The downward trend to range of 114.00 and 115.00. Rebounds from the resistance lines may lead to steep downward trend. The signal is a breakout of level 116.60. In this case the downward trend will simply reach the area of 114.00-115.00. The further decline may lead to deeper slump towards objectives at the annual minimum area of 109.00.
This is less likely outcome than the first one.

3. The upward trend above 119.00. It is not improbable that the couple will rise above 119.00. This script is possible in case of a resistance lines breakout which hold in couple fluctuations from above.
This is the smallest outcome.

Major Resistance Levels:
117.90 long term trend line from 1998
118.60 short resistance line for last three weeks
119.60/90 yearly maximum in October 2006 (very import resistance)
121.40 maximum in December 2005 (level of significant resistance)

Major Support Levels:
117.50 local support from last week
116.60 local minimum from November
116.10 local minimum in the end of September
114.00/115.60 August and September monthly minimums

[Halling]

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week USD/JPY couple course sloped down steeply and punched the support levels above 116 closed the week in the area of 115.80. This situation gives a huge technical potential for the further couple course decline to the area 113.00-114.00 This situation is described by one of the scripts viewed in the last review.

This week the following USD/JPY couple range variations are posible:

1. Medium decline to 115.00
We are expecting couple course decline. It can be medium during the week with the maximum target of 115.00 (the first script) but can be steepper with the main target achievement of the area of 114.00 (the second script). Within the bounds of the first script it is not improbable a short-term upward movement during the week to 116.60 following which a down impuls be next. A breakout of 116.60 will lead to the third script development.
The chances of this script development are 50%.

2. A downward trend to 114.00-115.00 range.
A course decline may be rapid with a target achievement in the area of 114.00. Since it is reached a rising correction rebound will follow.
The chances of this script development are 40%.

3. An upward trend above 117.00.
We don’t leave out a couple rises above 117.00. The reason is a course technical need to test a broken neck line below (117.00/40 region). It will be a classic script of a "head-and-shoulders" shape. After such an upward trend further course decline to the calculated drop target area is to be expected.
This is the smallest outcome.

Major resistance and support level for USD/JPY

Resistance
116.00 – 116.60 nearest resistance level – broken support
117.40 level of “head and shoulders” figure
117.80 long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance

Support
115.60 local supports from last week – recent minimum of November, also September minimum
115.00 expected intermediate support
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimum

[Halling]

4 Dec - 8 Dec

USD/JPY couple course decline continued last week. Yen to dollar rising is not as fast as euro currencies, but medium dollar decline is going on anyway. Last week the 115.00 level was tested and price drop below (one of the last review’s scripts). It can be training for the next course decline within the next few days and fixing below. A technical picture says about high probability of the further couple course decline to the 113.00-114.00 region.

This week the following USD/JPY couple range variations are possible:

Script 1 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 115.00 - 116.60 area. After inert week for yen side exchange fluctuations within the 115.00-116.60 region are expected. Especially liable will be couple rising to 116.60 in the case of euro currencies correction beginning. The breakdown of these levels will lead to the next two scripts development.

Script 2 (40%): The downward trend to the 113.40-114.00 region. The course decline can continue in case of fixing below 115.00. In that case the nearest target of the 113.40-114.00 region will easily be reached during the week. After that the correcting rebound can occur.

Script 3 (20%): The upward trend above 116.60. It is not improbable that the couple will rise above the 116.60 level to the 117.40 area. The reason is a course technical need to test a broken neck line below (117.00/40 region).

Resistance
116.00 - 116.60 the nearest resistance region – broken support
117.40 the neck line region of “head and shoulders” figure
117.80 the long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance

Support
115.00 the last week reached supports
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimum
109.00 May yearly minimum as a long-range target of the current decline

[Halling]

December 11, 2006 - December 15, 2006

GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week USD/JPY couple correction brought out. On Monday it reached a new minimum in the 114.50 level area and then on Friday increased up to 116.50.

Script 1 (20%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 114.50 - 116.60 area.
Recommencement of side exchange fluctuations within the 114.40-116.60 region can be expected. But the chances of it are bad. Last week the lower fluctuations limit fell to 114.40. But there wasn?t less than 114.00 limit decline there. The upward trend up to 116.60 says about high probability of overcoming of this limit as well. Stated side exchange fluctuations limits overcoming will lead to the next two scripts development.

Script 2 (40%): The downward trend to the 113.40-114.00 area.
The course decline can continue in case of fixing below 114.50. In that case the nearest decline target of the 113.40-114.00 region will easily be reached during the week. After that the correcting rebound can occur again.

Script 3 (40%): The correcting upward trend up to 117.40/60.
The couple has increased more than 100 pips up to 116.50 during Friday. It is not improbable that it will rise above the 116.60 level to the 117.50 area. Classically it will be a course technical need to test a broken neck line below (117.00/40 region) ? ?head-and-shoulders? shape script. After such rising further downward trend to the calculated decline target region is to be expected.

The major resistance and support levels :

Resistance
116.60 the nearest critical resistance region ? broken support
117.50 the neck line region of ?head and shoulders? shape
117.70 the long time trend line since 1998
118.60 November resistance

Support
114.40 the last week reached supports
114.00 August monthly minimum
113.40 July monthly minimum
109.00 May yearly minimum as a long-range target of the current decline

[Halling]

December 18, 2006 - December 22, 2006

View on USD/JPY: dollar is going to be restored

GFSignals team ( http://www.gfsignals.com ) provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week USD/JPY couple continued to grow. Weekly increase amounted to almost 200 pips and arrived at 118.30. A technical picture is uncertain.
"Head-and-shoulders" figure working-off is likely to be unrealized, since couple course got over the "neck line" as a very important resistance.

Script 1 (50%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 117.40 - 118.60 area.
118.60 level achievement may lead to rollback and to side exchange fluctuations within the 117.40 - 118.60 area generating. These side exchange fluctuations levels overcoming will lead to the next two scripts development.

Script 2 (20%): Downward trend under 117.00.
In case of a downward trend less than 117.40 "Head-and-shoulders" figure working-off script which is viewed in our previous reviews will reestablish. Course decline will continue to the 115.00-116.00 area.

Script 3 (30%): Upward trend up to 119.70/90.
Couple has arrived to 118.60 as the upper level of the side range expected. In case of overcoming it the couple will get over 119.00 and reach 119.90.

Resistance
118.60 November resistance
119.70/90 October resistance region - top points of 2006 year
121.40 2005 year resistance - the longstanding maximum

Support
117.40 Support to be expected (broken resistance)
116.60 The resistance level broken upward - support to be expected
115.40 Medium December support
114.40 December monthly minimum

[Halling]

USD/JPY has flattened out in the Y118.35 area. Traders point to major option barrier on Y118.15. Stops are in the Y118.60/80 area, orders for sale are on Y119.30. Orders for buying are on Y117.60. Larger are on Y117.30 right up to Y117.00.
GFSignals team ( http://www.gfsignals.com )

[Halling]

January 15, 2007 - January 19, 2007

View on USD/JPY: all the expectancies for 121.30

GFSignals team ( http://www.gfsignals.com ) provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week USD/JPY pair rate rose sharply, went beyond the October maximum and almost run up to 121.30 as the longstanding maximum of November 2005. The situation is not in favour of yen which continues to fall. Technically the pair is ready to cross over 121.30 level which remains to be the nearest resistance key level.

The breakout of the resistance level of 2006 year (119.90) is technically not for advantage of yen. Now it can easily arrive not only the longstanding maximum region (121.30) but also higher levels, for example in the 122-125 area, within the next few days or weeks. Though the pair is trading still below 121.30 what can so far lead to recommencing it and to downward trend.

Script 1 (55%): Upward trend above 121.30
Everything says about a high probability of this script development and pair increase above 121.30. The nearest target is 122-123 area from which a rollback can start with an achievement of the broken resistance. Then increase can continue with a 125.00 level target.

Script 2 (35%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.20 - 121.00 area.
It is possible to expect pressure increasing to the course from the bears nearby the 121.30 level.
The pair can surely decrease to the 119.00 level region where the support view line from December is situated. From it an upward rebound is expected.

Script 3 (10%): Downward trend under 119.00 to 118.00.
It should not be ruled out a probability of pair decline to 119.20 as well as a breakout of this support down.

The major resistance and support levels :

Resistances
120.80 - last week resistance region as 2006 yearly tops
121.30 - 2005 year resistance - the longstanding maximum
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance
135.00 - the longstanding maximum level in the beginning of 2002 year

Supports
119.90 - The broken up resistance of 2006 year
119.00 - The broken resistance line view on the tops of 2005-2006 years
117.00 - The longstanding downward trend line from 1998 year
113.40-114.40 - January, July and December local minimums of 2006 year

[Halling]

January 22, 2007 - January 26, 2007

View on USD/JPY: is the further increase unavoidable?

GFSignals team ( http://www.gfsignals.com ) provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week the 121.30 longstanding maximum of 2005 year was tested and broken out. USD/JPY pair rate achieved the 121.50 area as a new longstanding maximum. The situation is not in favour of yen as before which continues to fall against dollar and pound. Now technically the pair is ready to achieve the 125.00 area. Is it inevitability? What can bring to a stop a missile?

Yen is under a strong pressure. Last week our first script was fulfilled: (55%) Upward trend above 121.30. The market renewed the longstanding maximum of 2005 year. The new longstanding maximum is at 121.50 by now. Though there is a high probability of a further USD/JPY pair increase.

Script 1 (40%): Fixation above 121.30 and upward trend to 122.00
Everything says about a comparatively high probability of this script development and pair increase above 121.30. The nearest target is 122-123 area from which a rollback can start with the broken resistance achievement. Then increase can continue with a 124.00 - 126.00 level target.

Script 2 (40%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 121.50 area.
Bears pressure near the 121.30 level can intensify and lead to correction. The pair can decrease to the earlier broken out 119.90 level region where the support view line from December 2006 is situated. From it an upward rebound is expected.

Script 3 (20%): Downward trend to 118.00/60.
It should not be ruled out a probability of pair decline to 119.90 as well as a breakout of this supposed support down.

Resistances
121.30 - the broken out longstanding maximum and 2005 year resistance
121.50 - the local 2007 year resistance as a new longstanding maximum
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance
135.00 - the longstanding maximums level in the beginning of 2002 year

Supports
119.90 - The broken up resistance of 2006 year, support view line area from December 2006
118.00 - The January minimum of 2007 year
117.00 - The longstanding downward trend line from 1998 year
115.80 - the medium-term view line - the bottom line of the upward channel from May 2006.

[Halling]

January 29, 2007 - February 02, 2007

View on USD/JPY: four-year maximum

GFSignals team ( http://www.gfsignals.com ) provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Last week brought us 121.80 as the new longstanding maximum from March, 2003. It is the second new January top already after the breakout of the 2005 year maximum in the 121.30 area.
There is a strong pressure to yen on the market even though a short-term USD/JPY course fall during the week. Technically the pair is ready to achieve the 125.00 area.

Yen is under a strong pressure. We have seen new longstanding tops. A new maximum is 121.80. And nevertheless there wasn?t a further increase. Last week our second script was fulfilled: (40%) ?Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 121.50 area?. During the week the pair sharply came down to the 120.20 level support and then sharply rebounded. Technically the two-month short-term upward trend linear projection from December 2006 which was indicated in the last review became a support line. Such a pair behavior confirms an importance of the mentioned projection.

Script 1 (45%): A further upward trend with the 122.50 target.
There is a strong possibility of a further USD/JPY pair increase in the nearest future. Both the upward 121.80 breakout and the next rebound from the mentioned above trend line will promote it. The nearest target is the 122.50-123.00 area where a number of linear projections run as potential resistances.

Script 2 (20%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 121.80 area.
Judging by sharp rebound last week after the new yearly maximum reaching it is possible to suppose the next currency decline for instance to the same level 119.90 or somewhat lower to 118.00. Though even the next decline under 121.00 by the end of the week may stand for the mentioned above trend line breakout and correction fluctuations dragging out.

Script 3 (35%): Deep correction fall with target to 118.50.
It should not be ruled out 119.90 downward breakout as the nearest supposed important support. It may take place after a breakout and course fixation under the two-month trend line. Stronger support levels at the 118.00-119.00 area will do a target for this fall. This area can hold the pair and lead to the next upward trend in February. The third script will drag out the pair fluctuations on the reached high levels and may lead then both to deeper fall (118.00 downward breakout) and to further rise (121.30/80 upward breakout).

Resistances
121.80 - the local 2007 year resistance as a new longstanding maximum
121.90 - the 2003 year maximum in March
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance
135.00 - the longstanding maximums level in the beginning of 2002 year

Supports
121.00 - projection line area from December, 2006 - the two-month trend line
119.90 - the broken up maximum of 2006 year
118.00 - the January minimum of 2007 year
117.20 - the longstanding downward trend line from 1998 year


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[Halling]

February 05, 2007 - February 09, 2007

View on USD/JPY: there is time for downward

GFSignals team ( http://www.gfsignals.com ) provides a week forecast for USD/JPY

Every week of this year brings us a new maximum. Last week the pair reached 122.20 as a new longstanding maximum. But from the next week the situation may change. Things are reaching turning point on the market which may bring to a downward USD/JPY pair trend. From the technical side the week minimum which has overridden the previous minimum is noteworthy. Following a downward trend the pair can easily reach the 118-119 region in February, holding with it an estimated upward potential to the 125 shape regions.

Last week renewed the longstanding maximums achieved a new maximum 122.10, but didn?t forget about minimums. There was no chance to stay too long over the 122 shape. The bears pressure brought to the course downswing and before last week minimum renewal from 120.20 to 120.10. This dynamics says about the risk of deeper USD/JPY course decline during the next few weeks. Last week our second script was fulfilled: (20%) ?Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 121.80 area?, but the top limit was renewed to 122.20. Examined in the last two reviews the two-month short-term upward trend linear projection from December 2006 turned out to be broken down. By the end of the week the pair classically reestablished to this line breakout region of 121.40. Now there is a strong possibility of the further pair decline.

Script 1 (60%): A correction downward trend with the 118.80-119.00 target.
We suppose a roll-back from the reached resistance line in the 121.40-80 area, decrease and a breakout of the support level of 119.90. It will lead to decrease to the 119.90 region, where the more important supports lines are situated. Here the first rebound is expected. It should not be ruled out the further decline and January, 2007 minimum achieving of 118.00. This level may hold the pair and lead to the next upward trend in the latter half of February.

Script 2 (30%): Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 122.20 area.
The pair may easily stay at the current fluctuations range of 119.90 - 122.20. And nevertheless one of the limits breaking will lead to the other two scripts developments.

Script 3 (10%): An upward trend continuation with the 125.70 target.
In spite of the bears spirits increase and a high possibility of correction development we don?t exclude a possibility of the further USD/JPY pair increase. An upward 122.20 breakout will make for it, especially after the next rebound from the support line in the 119.90-120.10 area. The nearest target is 123.00/50 then.

Resistances
121.40/80 - the local resistance of the broken down upward trend line from December, 2006
122.20 - the January, 2007 maximum
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance
135.00 - the longstanding maximums level in the beginning of 2002 year

Supports
120.10/20 ? the last two weeks support area
119.90 - the broken up maximum of 2006 year
118.90 ? the important supports lines region
118.00 - the January, 2007 minimum


Welcome to our new section, Forex Economic Calendar. You will find there a Forex market events calendar with comments for the current week.