Forex618.net Daily Currency report

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Daily Currency report for Friday February 16 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar






DateETReleaseForActualBriefing.comConsensusPriorRevised FromFeb 1214:00Treasury BudgetJan $40.0B$40.0B$21.0B Feb 1308:30Trade BalanceDec -$59.7B-$59.5B-$58.2B Feb 1408:30Retail SalesJan 0.5%0.3%0.9% Feb 1408:30Retail Sales ex-autoJan 0.6%0.3%1.0% Feb 1410:00Business InventoriesDec -0.1%0.4%0.4% Feb 1410:30Crude Inventories02/09 NANA-449K Feb 1508:30Export Prices ex-ag.Jan NANA0.5% Feb 1508:30Import Prices ex-oilJan NANA0.4% Feb 1508:30Initial Claims02/10 310KNA311K Feb 1508:30NY Empire State IndexFeb 10.011.09.1 Feb 1509:00Net Foreign PurchasesDec $60.0B$68.4B Feb 1509:15Industrial ProductionJan 0.1%0.0%0.4% Feb 1509:15Capacity UtilizationJan 81.7%81.7%81.8% Feb 1512:00Philadelphia FedFeb 2.05.08.3 Feb 1608:30Housing StartsJan 1590K1610K1642K Feb 1608:30Building PermitsJan 1570K1590K1613K Feb 1608:30PPIJan -0.6%-0.6%0.9% Feb 1608:30Core PPIJan 0.2%0.2%0.2% Feb 1610:00Mich Sentiment-Prel.Feb 97.597.096.9
EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2900

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:Very little change from yesterday as we hold nicely at the new breakout level and give little back to the market. There is still a chance that we may dip back to 1.3050, and even 1.3000, but this is becoming less likely, the longer we hold above 1.3100. Today, buy dips to 1.3050/60, stops below 1.3020. First target is 1.3150 and then 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Monday February 19 2007

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This Week's Economic Calendar






DateETReleaseForActualBriefing.comConsensusPriorRevised FromFeb 2108:30CPIJan 0.2%0.1%0.4% Feb 2108:30Core CPIJan 0.2%0.2%0.1% Feb 2110:00Leading IndicatorsJan 0.3%0.2%0.3% Feb 2110:30Crude Inventories02/16 NANA-589K Feb 2114:00FOMC MinutesJan 31 Feb 2208:30Initial Claims02/17 320K325K357K Feb 2210:00Help-Wanted IndexJan 333433
EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:The end of last week was a quiet period for the euro, whilst the other major currencies were somewhat more volatile and unpredictable. We have managed to hold very neatly above 1.3100, with a small "gap" higher over the weekend to 1.3155. We feel that the euro will try to use this good start to the week to rally further and confirm that we have indeed broken out from the recent range into a new bullish period. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:We are edging higher - not giving much up to the downside, but not moving higher with much momentum. We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers, so until that happens, the scenario remains very much the same as yesterday: There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 21 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:Again little changed as we move aimlessly around in a 60 point range. The longer we consolidate here the better the chance we will continue higher, but we will have to allow for a "spike" below the range first. We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers, so until that happens, the scenario remains very much the same as yesterday: There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Friday February 23 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2940

Support levels: 1.3090, 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2950

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:A brief spike to 1.3080 came as expected, and may just be the spark we needed to break the deadlock. The picture remains the same: We need to push through 1.3180/1.3200 today (plus a daily close above there) to attract more momentum buyers. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Monday February 26 2007

This is only a guide. Please refer to our specific entry signals for exact entries and stops.

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3090

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:Finally the euro has broken above the pivotal 1.3080 level, but has yet to gather some serious upside momentum. There is also a danger to bulls that we might be forming a sort of "broadening pattern" on the charts, with a top around 1.3200. This means until we have a daily close above 1.3200, there is an equal danger of a rush higher to 1.3300 or a sudden collapse to 1.3050. For now we will go with the fledgling upwards momentum and continue to buy dips. Support is roughly between 1.3140 and 1.3100. Below here means a visit to 1.3050 is on the cards. Still very tricky trading after a difficult month.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Tuesday February 27 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3090

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:Briefly up to 1.3200 a few hours ago, but really no change. It is pleasing that we have managed to hold above 1.3150, which means that another decent upside attack may be initiated today. However, there is also a danger to bulls that we might be forming a sort of "broadening pattern" on the charts, with a top around 1.3200. This means until we have a daily close above 1.3200, there is an equal danger of a rush higher to 1.3300 or a sudden collapse to 1.3050. For now we will go with the fledgling upwards momentum and continue to buy dips. Support is roughly between 1.3140 and 1.3100. Below here means a visit to 1.3050 is on the cards. Today we will look to hold longs or buy dips to 1.3150/30, stops below 1.3100.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Wednesday February 28 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:Amidst a turbulent day in many markets, the Euro has been relatively quiet. We have moved up to the weekly 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 1.3260 but there is little support from the pound in the rally to push it higher. In addition, downward pressure from the yen crosses has probably helped to keep the euro from punching through. We must now allow for more work in the 1.3100 - 1.3250 corridor, with dips still seen as buying opportunities for a rally to 1.3300. For today, we should get support between 1.3190 and 1.3160. Buy dips to these levels with stops below the reversals.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Thursday March 01 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:As we enter the last month of the first quarter, it is likely that we will see more direction in the currency markets. This means that a new trend direction should begin to develop this month - probably renewed dollar weakness. We will continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200. Right now, its a matter of patience and waiting for the right moment.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Friday March 2 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3190, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:The euro dipped slightly to 1.3150 as the yen crosses slipped further yesterday. We have managed to hold here quite well, but the danger of a further slip continues to threaten. We will allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200, with the first chance to try at 1.3150. Buy near 1.3170, stops below 1.3150, being prepared to re-try lower down.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart: