Forex618.net Daily Currency report

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Daily Currency report for Monday March 5 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3090

Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3080

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to supportafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today:Despite the carnage taking place in other markets (Yen crosses!), the euro has remained relatively stable, holding well above the 1.3100 level and keeping up a bullish tone. This means that our analysis has not changed: We will allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200. Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 6 2007

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GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.9680

Resistance levels: 1.9400, 1.9500

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Medium term: The trend remains bullish whilst above roughly 1.9200, but it is becoming mature and our medium term target is possibly 2.0000. As we approach the BIG figure at 2.0000 and indicators become extremely overbought, great caution is required, as swings both ways may be huge, random and very fast. Big overhead resistance from very long term highs lies above between 1.9800 and 2.100, and general dollar weakness supports from underneath. This means we shall have to allow for more of the same for several more weeks or months, and trading will continue to be tricky.

Today: Pushed down relentlessly by the falling GBP/JPY cross rate, the pound touched below 1.9200 for the first time since November 2006. This move will have cleared out many over-optimistic long hands and frightened many onto the sidelines, particularly with the turmoil in other markets. That makes it the perfect opportunity for a new base to form at the important 1.9200 trend reversal level and medium term Fibonacci confluence. Buy dips/hold longs from 1.9230, first target 1.9400, and then 1.9500, where we shall watch for signs of topping and opportunities to sell again. Stops at 1.9170.

GBP/USD Hourly chart:



GBP/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Monday March 12 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3215

Resistance levels: 1.3160, 1.3200

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Very little change as we hover between 1.3100 and 1.3200 since the middle of last month. There is a small "head and shoulders" pattern potentially forming on the hourly charts which will place pressure on the downside, but we don't expect it to complete its projected low at around 1.2950 (although not impossible by any means!) We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. Alternatively, sell with the current trend around 1.3160 - 1.3200.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:



EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Tuesday March 13 2007
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This Week's Economic Calendar

DateETReleaseForActualBriefing.comConsensusPriorRevised FromMar 1214:00Treasury BudgetFeb -$123.0B-$118.0B-$119.2B Mar 1308:30Retail SalesFeb 0.2%0.3%0.0% Mar 1308:30Retail Sales ex-autoFeb 0.3%0.3%0.3% Mar 1310:00Business InventoriesJan 0.2%0.1%0.0% Mar 1408:30Current AccountQ4 -$204.0B-$203.0B-$225.6B Mar 1408:30Export Prices ex-ag.Feb NANA0.3% Mar 1408:30Import Prices ex-oilFeb NANA0.0% Mar 1410:30Crude Inventories03/09 NANA-4848K Mar 1508:30PPIFeb 0.4%0.4%-0.6% Mar 1508:30Core PPIFeb 0.2%0.2%0.2% Mar 1508:30Initial Claims03/10 330KNA328K Mar 1508:30NY Empire State IndexMar 15.017.024.4 Mar 1509:00Net Foreign PurchasesJan $15.6B Mar 1512:00Philadelphia FedMar 5.04.00.6 Mar 1608:30CPIFeb 0.2%0.3%0.2% Mar 1608:30Core CPIFeb 0.2%0.2%0.3% Mar 1609:15Industrial ProductionFeb 0.3%0.3%-0.5% Mar 1609:15Capacity UtilizationFeb 81.3%81.3%81.2% Mar 1610:00Mich Sentiment-Prel.Mar 90.090.591.3
EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3215
Resistance levels: 1.3200
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, sell rallies to resistance after an entry signal.
Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
Back up to 1.3200, but not out of danger yet. There is a small "head and shoulders" pattern potentially forming on the hourly charts which will place pressure on the downside, but we don't expect it to complete its projected low at around 1.2950 (although not impossible by any means!) We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050. Alternatively, sell with the current trend around 1.3160 - 1.3200.
EUR/USD Hourly chart:

EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 14 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Support levels: 1.3150, 1.3100, 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to support levelsafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: We have managed to retrace 78.6% of the euro's previous decline, at 1.3220, and the price is stalling here. As we are not getting any assistance from the pound (although the yen has done particularly well) we may need to wait another day or two before the euro can really get some upward momentum. Until then the strategy remains the same: We continue to allow for the euro to have one last look at the downside, probably no lower than 1.3050 - 1.3000, if it must go there, but more likely is a resumption of the bull trend towards 1.3700 from current levels. For today and the rest of this week, we will watch carefully for opportunities to buy euros on convincing dips and clear signs of reversal between 1.3000 and 1.3200 (1.2950 max) Buy near 1.3100/1.3080, stops below 1.3050.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Thursday March 15 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3160, 1.3100

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to support levelsafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today: Pushing up towards the recent high at 1.3260 and stalling slightly there for now. We expect that the euro will eventually break above here and head towards 1.3500, but we will allow for some back-filling today, and perhaps the rest of this week. Dips should try to hold above 1.3150, so all declines to that sort of area are good opportunities to re-buy euros for another strong rally. Watch for dips and signs of reversal between 1.3180 and 1.3100 today before buying.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Monday March 19 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to support levelsafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We pushed up slightly higher on Friday, but without a great deal of conviction. This means that the picture hasn't really changed, and we should still allow for a period of consolidation under 1.3370. Dips should try to hold above 1.3240/50, but may extend to 1.3200/1.3180. Both of these areas are seen as good opportunities to buy euros for another attempt at breaking above 1.3370.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3200

"Set and forget" entry: Buy 1.3200, stop 1.3165, target 1.3350

Counter-trend opportunities:Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3370. Use tight trailing stop loss.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Wednesday March 21 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to support levelsafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: 5 days holding in an 80 pip range means that the euro is overdue for a significant move. It is easy to pick a direction and gamble on being right, but it is probably a 50/50 call right now. We will either rush higher towards 1.3500 or drop back to better support around 1.3200. Wait for a G7 set up near 1.3240 or even lower at 1.3180 before buying, or try small counter-trend trades higher up on signs of topping against 1.3500/20 .

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3180

"Set and forget" entry: Buy 1.3250, stop 1.3230, target 1.3370. Re-buy 1.3190, stop 1.3160, target 1.3370

Counter-trend opportunities:Maybe try tiny shorts on signs of topping at 1.3500. Use tight trailing stop loss.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Thursday March 22 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to support levelsafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: Up to 1.3400 and the highest price since early 2005, with lots of fanfare and chatter. At the same time, the Aussie dollar reached above 0.8000 and the highest level in 10 years against the dollar. This is all very exciting, but remember that these are historically extreme levels and they bring their own danger with them - uncertainty, large swings and perhaps even dramatic collapses. Nevertheless, the euro remains bullish and despite the possibility of a strong retracement from 1.3400, dips are opportunities to buy cautiously. Today, try very small (counter-trend) shorts around 1.3400, stops above 1.3425, or wait for dips to 1.3280/50 to buy - stops below 1.3230.

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3250, 1.3280

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3280, stop 1.3230, target 1.3400.

Counter-trend opportunities:Maybe try tiny shorts at 1.3400, stop 1.3430, target 1.3300.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart:

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Daily Currency report for Friday March 23 2007

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EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3070

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level,buy dips to support levelsafter an entry signal.

Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.

Today's trade suggestion: We have retraced 100 points from yesterday's highs to 1.3300 - nothing to be too concerned about and well within normal corrective price action. Remembering that we are more likely to see sudden price swings the closer we get to 1.3500/1.3600 (historically extreme levels) we will allow for more of the same today. Dips "should" try to hold above 1.3280, but the danger of a slip to 1.3250 or 1.3200 cannot be ruled out. Try buying at 1.3280/1.3300, stops below 1.3250, but be prepared to re-buy at 1.3240, stops below 1.3200. Have a fantastic weekend!

Key G7 Support levels: 1.3280, 1.3250, 1.3200

"Set and forget" entry: BUY 1.3280, stop 1.3230, target 1.3400. Re-buy 1.3210, stop 1.3170.

Counter-trend opportunities:None

EUR/USD Hourly chart:


EUR/USD Weekly chart: