Daily Technical Analysis by Forexalt.com

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Early Technical Analysis for Tuesday August 1 2006

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Early Technical Analysis: The Players concern "Rates" a theme



The American dollar has continued falling at the tenders last day July, despite of favorable news on the American economy. To tell the truth, the impulse of dollar bears has strongly weakened, and falling was not so intensive, like on Friday.
Chicago Index reflecting business activity in the industry of this region has grown up to 57.9 items against the forecast about decrease to 56.0 items. This parameter, and also other regional indexes, force investors to hope for a strong parameter of a federal index of business activity in a manufacturing industry which publishes Institute of managers on deliveries. Meanwhile the market has not reacted in any way to this news, as players concerned exclusive "rates" a theme.
In the yesterday's performance president FRB of St. Louis William Poole, has declared, that, in his opinion, the probability of increase of the rate next week makes 50:50. It has specified growth of inflation as a major factor playing advantage of toughening of monetary policy.
However words of Poole did not render essential influence on the market - as in the given structure of FOMC it has no vote. And here his colleague - a voting member - Janet L. Yellen who has become famous for the care concerning a credit policy declared approach the termination of a cycle of rate increases. She also has noted that each FRS decision affects economy with delay; therefore, to reach effect from the previous increases, it is necessary to wait.

EUR

Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657), 1.2560/55 (50.0% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2560 and 23.6% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2555)


GBP

Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8515 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel), 1.8450 (the bottom line of the “lime-green” channel)


CHF

Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2439/23 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006), 1.2585/93 (50.0% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2585 and Wednesday high 07.19.2006 at 1.2593)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)


JPY

Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Midday Technical Analysis for Tuesday August 1 2006

Full report with charts on Forexalt.com

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Midday Technical Analysis: The Dollar has a little Strengthened


The dollar has a little strengthened the positions in relation to the major currencies. On the eve the important levels of resistance and technical correction before the publication of the major economic data have been achieved is represented by natural enough event.
On the USA the output of a package rather considerably the data is expected. Most interesting of them will be parameters of personal incomes and spending, and also PCE Core Chain Wt Price Index. It is expected, that PCE Core, and also personal incomes will grow. However it is improbable, that forecast parameters have forced the market to reconsider a position concerning decision FRS, therefore positive influence on dollar will be short-term. And here negative influence in a case of weaker, than predict the data, can be more significant.
Also there will be data on an ISM index in July. Analytics predict decrease in this index; however after an output of the good data under the Durable goods orders, use of capacities and the regional indexes, many expect a parameter in area 54.5-55. Such value can support a dollar exchange rate a little.

EUR

Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657), 1.2560/55 (50.0% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2560 and 23.6% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2555)

GBP

Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8515 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel), 1.8450 (the bottom line of the “lime-green” channel)

CHF

Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2439/23 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006), 1.2585/93 (50.0% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2585 and Wednesday high 07.19.2006 at 1.2593)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)

JPY

Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Early Technical Analysis for Wednesday August 2 2006

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Early Technical Analysis: The Dollar has Fallen



The dollar has fallen on Tuesday on closing of positions after the block of the mixed economic data. Predictably, reports in the greater degree have justified expectations. Exception has made industrial ISM which appeared better forecasts, having shown growth up to 54.7 in July against 53.8 month earlier. However it rendered only time support to dollar. Some occasion for purchase of the American currency has given new secretary of US Department of the Treasury Henry M. Paulson who has noted, that "the American economy at all does not face recession". Meanwhile, the majority of analysts expect that the central bank will make in August a pause in 2-years campaign on toughening a monetary policy. From the beginning of year the dollar has fallen to 7.2 % in relation to eurocurrency on speculation of reduction of differential of rates between the USA and Europe. Last month FOMC in 17-th time has raised the basic rate of refinancing up to 5.25 %. At the moment futures on Federal Funds take into account 31 %-s' probability of increase on August, 8 rates up to 5.5 % that is lower than 85 % month earlier.
The confidence of the future pause of actions FOMC began to become stronger from performance of the chapter of the Federal reserve of Ben Bernanke on July, 19. Then it has declared, that delay of rates of economic growth is observed. The president FRB on San Francisco Janet L.Yellen eve has declared, that the current rate of refinancing practically answers a necessary level. The separate report yesterday has shown that spending has increased for 0.4 % in June, and incomes - on 0.6 %. Inflationary a component (PCE) the report also has justified forecasts, having shown growth on 0.2 %. In opinion of many analysts, PCE it is carefully traced by the Federal Reserve for studying the inflationary environment in the country.
The euro-currency in the beginning of day has rolled away from 3-week maxima against dollar as traders have preferred to close a part of positions before session ECB on this Thursday. However already at the American session of euro has taken a strong level of resistance at 1.2778 and figure 1.2800. The last month president ECB Jean - Claude Trichet has noted, that the central bank continues to keep "vigilance" concerning inflationary processes in region. It has strengthened gamble on a theme of continuation of increase of rates ECB. Interrogation of economists has shown that ECB on August, 3 will raise the basic discount rate up to 3 %. Moreover, analytics believe, that by the end of the current year the rate will reach 3.25 %. On July, 6 Trichet has declared, that the central bank is ready to speed up process of increase of cost of credits under condition of growth of inflationary pressure. According to the reports published yesterday, industrial PMI the Euro-Zone has reached 6-years peak while a rate of unemployment in Germany has fallen to a 2-years minimum.
Today promises to be quiet. The important news for today it is not planned.



EUR

Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2834 (today high), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)

GBP

Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8800 (target and psychological level), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8555 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel)

CHF

Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2337/41 (61.8% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2341 and 38.2% retracement from 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2337), 1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006)
Supports
1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)

JPY

Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Midday Technical Analysis for Wednesday August 2 2006

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Midday Technical Analysis: The Dollar was Stabilized


The dollar in relation to the major currencies remained in areas established before minima. We shall remind that yesterday the European currencies have punched the important technological levels of resistance as the theme of differential of rates any more does not support to dollar. The matter is that participants of the market are practically sure, that at session on August, 8 the Federal Reserve will declare a pause in a cycle of increase of rates. During same time Europe and Japan declare increase of rates in the regions. Britain, in view of good economic reports and the strong data on the market of habitation, too can resort to toughening a monetary policy this year.
As a whole, day promises to be quiet. The tenders will be defined by a technical picture.

EUR

Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2834 (today high), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)

GBP

Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8800 (target and psychological level), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8555 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel)

CHF

Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2337/41 (61.8% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2341 and 38.2% retracement from 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2337), 1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006)
Supports
1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)

JPY

Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Early Technical Analysis for Thursday August 3 2006

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Early Technical Analysis: The Market awaits ECB Meeting

On Wednesday the euro came to an end of 3-weeks maxima in relation to dollar as traders have preferred to close a part of long positions before ECB session. From the beginning of the year, euro has become stronger on 7.5 % on a background of rates increase ECB is up to 2.75 %. Interrogation of economists has shown that today the central bank of region will raise the basic rate up to 3 %. The last month, acting on traditional press conferences, ECB president Jean - Claude Trichet has declared that the central bank still shows "vigilance" in the attitude of inflationary processes and is ready to sharp measures for protection of price stability. Futures says untill the end of current year ECB will finish the rate with 3.25 %.
Yesterday positions of euro for some time have improved after published by private concern Automated Data Processing Inc. (ADP) the report has shown, that employment in the USA in July has grown on 99,000, that is the minimal parameter for this year. The report has left two days prior to the most important report of month - Payrolls. on July, 5 the dollar has flied up to 2-week maxima against euro after the report of this firm has shown the maximal growth of employment in June since 2001. However in two days from it rally remained nothing, as the official statistics has shown reduction of quantity of new workplaces. In result, the dollar has failed to 4-week minima both against euro, and against yen.
The euro can continue to weaken on fears of that the chapter of Bank of Spain Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez which will take part today in voting under rates as a member Governing Council meeting of the ECB can vote against increase. Last week Mr. Ordonez has declared that high interest rates bear in themselves threat to economic growth of Spain. Reports of this week have shown, that industrial PMI the Euro-Zone has reached 6-years peak, and retails of Germany have grown more, was rather than predicted.

In the morning we shall pay attention to the data on Retail in the Euro-Zone. Growth of parameter that can promote small strengthening of euro is expected.
The bank of England as expected, will not change the rate, and this decision does not render essential influence on the market.
The ECB will also consider today a question on the rate of crediting. Analytics mark, that the market has already put in pawn in the current rate of euro an opportunity of ECB rate increase on 3 %. Therefore the decision in itself will not cause special movements in the market; the greater interest will be represented with press conference of ECB president Trichet and his forecasts concerning prospects of a credit policy of bank. In particular, the market expects increase of the rate until the end of the year up to 3.5 %, and will search hints in Trichet performance on it. If formulations of the banker will be insufficiently aggressive the euro can fall in the price.
At last the index of business activity in sector of services the USA (ISM services index) in the evening will be published. The segment of this sector makes 60 % of economy, but essential changes in the market it almost never causes. Analytics for decrease in an index that can put short-term pressure upon a dollar exchange rate wait.

EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2834 (high 08.02.2006), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006)
Supports
1.2740 (today low), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)

GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8800 (target and psychological level), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8555 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel)

CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2423/39 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178)

JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Midday Technical Analysis for Thursday August 3 2006

Full report with charts on Forexalt.com

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Midday Technical Analysis: FX await press conferences J-C Trichet

The dollar has insignificantly strengthened the positions against the basic currencies, however, remains nearby achieved before local minima. Activity in the market now is insignificant, as investors prefer to wait press conferences of the president of the European Central Bank of Jean - Claude Triсhet in which the further actions can be outlined concerning toughening a credit policy.
Practically there are no doubts concerning that today ECB will raise the interest rate up to 3 %, however now there are fears, that in a kind of growth of inflationary pressure and considering certificates of revival of economy of region, rates of growth of rates can be increased.
Let's remind, that published in the beginning to week the data have testified that fact that rates of growth of industrial activity in Europe remain in area of the maximal values for last six years, and a rate of unemployment in Germany, the largest economy of region, has decreased to a minimum level for last two years.
The rate of inflation in region the third month keeps at a level of 2.5 % successively and within one and a half years exceeds target level ECB of 2 %.

EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2834 (high 08.02.2006), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006)
Supports
1.2740 (today low), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)

GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8800 (target and psychological level), 1.8877 (high 06.05.2006), 1.8960/1.9023 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8960 and high 05.17.2006 at 1.9023)
Supports
1.8672/87 (Thursday high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and Monday’s high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605), 1.8555 (the bottom line of the “yellow” channel)

CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2423/39 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178)

JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Early Technical Analysis for Friday August 4 2006

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Early Technical Analysis: The Market is Focused on NFP

The basic events of Thursday became decisions under rates of the central banks of Britain and the Euro-Zone. As well as it was supposed, ECB has raised the basic discount rate up to 3 %, however to the most important began speech of ECB president Jean - Claude Trichet at traditional press conference. He has noted that inflation most likely there will be above 2 %, and the bank will continue to trace a situation with the prices. It allows assuming, that ECB will continue to raise interest rates. In July Trichet has declared, that the bank continues to remain "vigilant" concerning inflationary processes in region, and is in case of need ready to resolute actions. Futures for interest rates of the Euro-Zone now take into account probability of one more increase until the end of the year on 25 p. to 3.25 %. Unexpectedness for the market began with raise decision by the МРС of Bank of England the interest rate to 4.75 % that occurs for the first time for last 2 years. This decision rendered essential support to pound sterling in relation to dollar and euro.
At first half of day easing of yen occurred as a result of speech of Japaneze deputy minister of finance Hideto Fujii. He has declared that it is necessary for central bank to trace influence of interest rates increase for the last month on a national economy before to undertake the subsequent steps. Yen has risen in price for 1.8 % since representatives of Bank of Japan have declared, that would be wrong to assert, that the central bank will not raise the rate to the end of year.
Losses of dollar had temporary character. At the second half of American session the rate started to be restored sharply, traders explained closing positions before the today's report on employment. Besides support to a rate is rendered with optimistic expectations on Payrolls, where analytics predict growth in July on 145,000. Yesterday service index ISM which has shown decrease up to 54.8 in July against 57.0 month earlier has been published. The separate report has fixed growth of factory orders in June on 1.2 % against +0.7 % in May.
Today is expected the publication of data Payrolls, which last years traditionally causes the highest volatile in the market. Analytics expect growth of this parameter in comparison with the previous report up to 145000 against 121000. However such value hardly will seriously change the situation in the market. As believe, the dollar can receive stimulus for growth at a parameter above 180000 as it can become one more argument for the benefit of those who insists on increase of rates. Value 100000 and below can cause a sharp collapse of dollar on all fronts.

EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2834 (today high), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)

GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8913 (yesterday high 08.03.2006), 1.8960 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047), 1.9023 (high 05.17.2006)
Supports
1.8750 (the rising short-term line from 07.26.2006 at 1.8383 to 08.03.2006 at 1.8695), 1.8687/72 (high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605)

CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2423/39 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178)

JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Midday Technical Analysis for Friday August 4 2006

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Midday Technical Analysis: The FX waits Payrolls

Activity of the tenders is insignificant, as participants of the market show care before an output of the data on a labour market the USA which can give the answer to a question on further actions FRS concerning interest rates. Before the publication of the data probably some strengthening of the American currency, connected to fixing the profit.
Today will be published American data: Nonfarm Payrolls (July), Unemployment rate (July), Average hourly earnings (July), Average workweek (July) at 12-30 GMT.
The strong data can put under doubts the opinion about delay of rates of growth of US economy and will support the American currency. Otherwise sale of dollar will renew with new force.

EUR
Weekly chart EUR trend – Range
Resistances
1.2834 (today high), 1.2860 (high 07.07.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006)
Supports
1.2771/78 (high 07.28.2006 at 1.2771 and 61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705/06 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978 at 1.2705 and 61.8% retracement from 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2706), 1.2660/57 (50.0% retracement of 1.2860 to 1.2459 at 1.2660 and 38.2% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2657)

GBP
Weekly chart GBP trend - Range
Resistances
1.8923 (today high 08.03.2006), 1.8960 (76.4% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047), 1.9023 (high 05.17.2006)
Supports
1.8750 (the rising short-term line from 07.26.2006 at 1.8383 to 08.03.2006 at 1.8695), 1.8687/72 (high 07.27.2006 at 1.8672 and high 07.31.2006 at1.8687), 1.8595/1.8605 (61.8% retracement of 1.9554 to 1.7047 at 1.8595 and 23.6% retracement of 1.7229 to 1.9023 at 1.8605)

CHF
Weekly chart CHF trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2423/39 (61.8% retracement of 1.1287 to 1.4281 at 1.2439 and the 38.2% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920 at 1.2423), 1.2545 (high 07.25.2006)
Supports
1.2285/83 (50.0% retracement from 1.1287 to 1.3284 at 1.2285 and 76.4% retracement from 1.2185 to 1.2593 at 1.2283), 1.2231 (23.6% retracement from 1.3237 to 1.1920), 1.2185/78(low 07.07.2006 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2178)

JPY
Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.40 (61.8% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.70/90 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.70 and 76.4% retracement of 119.37 to 108.96 at 116.90)
Supports
114.19 (50.0% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96), 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 112.95 (38.2% retracement from 119.37 to 108.96)

[Forexalt]

Early Technical Analysis for Monday August 7 2006

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Early Technical Analysis: Rally or Correction?



The beginning of the week is traditionally poor on macroeconomic news. The pound can appear under pressure in case of output forecastles data on industrial production: decrease in rates of growth on monthly basis and negative value on annual.
In the evening there will be an index of Consumer crediting in the USA. Usually it does not render influence on the market, but it is necessary to remember, the forecast - decrease in volume of crediting is negative for dollar.
During a week intermediate term events of the market will be defined by two factors:The USA FRS decision on a discount rate (Tuesday) and the data on the International trade balance the USA (Thursday).


EUR

Weekly chart EUR trend – Bullish
Resistances
1.2908 (Friday’s high 08.04.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006), 1.3043 (76.4% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640)
Supports
1.2834 (high 08.02.2006), 1.2778 (61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978)


GBP

Weekly chart GBP trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.9127 (Friday’s high 08.04.2006), 1.9145 (high 02.18.2004), 1.9177 (towards 61.8% projection of 1.7229 to 1.9023 from 1.8089)
Supports
1.8913 (Thursday’s high 08.03.2006), 1.8795 (short time ascending trend line from low at 07.25.2006 at 1.8383 to low 08.03.2006 at 1.8700), 1.8680 (23.6% retracement from 1.7229 to 1.9127)


CHF

Weekly chart CHF trend – Bearish
Resistances
1.2285 (50.0% retracement from 1.3284 to 1.1920), 1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2395 (the top part of “orchid” channel)
Supports
1.2190/80 (Friday’s low at 1.2190, low 06.05.2006 at 1.2185 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2180), 1.2049 (38.2% retracement from 1.3284 to 1.1287), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)


JPY

Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.53 (high 08.04.2006), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.63 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.63 and 61.8% retracement from 121.38 to 108.96)
Supports
113.97 (Friday’s low 08.04.2006), support 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 111.32 (low 06.02.2006)

[Forexalt]

Midday Technical Analysis for Monday August 7 2006

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Midday Technical Analysis: Dollar has a Little Corrected



The dollar has a little corrected upwards at the tenders on Monday as some players have already started to reduce positions before tomorrow's meeting of Federal Reserve System on which, predictably, the central bank will declare a pause in a two-year-old cycle of increase of rates. These expectations have amplified after the publication on Friday of data NFP for July has shown that the number of new workplaces appeared below forecasts.
Meanwhile, the American currency can find some support before session FRS as the market will do forecasts of that central bank can tell about the further policy in the application published on Tuesday. Even if FRS will leave the rate at a former level, dollar, probably, will not test sharply decrease if FOMC will not give precise hints on the termination of a two-year-old cycle of increase of interest rates. If FRS will hint, that interest rates can be raised depending on a situation, sell dollars can to be difficult.
It is quite probable, that before the meeting FOMC the major currency pairs will bargain in narrow price corridors.

EUR

Weekly chart EUR trend – Bullish
Resistances
1.2908 (Friday’s high 08.04.2006), 1.2971/78 (highs 05.15.2006 and 06.05.2006), 1.3043 (76.4% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640)
Supports
1.2834 (high 08.02.2006), 1.2778 (61.8% retracement of 1.3483 to 1.1640 at 1.2778 and 61.8% retracement of 1.2978 to 1.2459 at 1.2778), 1.2705 (23.6% retracement from 1.1825 to 1.2978)


GBP

Weekly chart GBP trend - Bullish
Resistances
1.9127 (Friday’s high 08.04.2006), 1.9145 (high 02.18.2004), 1.9177 (towards 61.8% projection of 1.7229 to 1.9023 from 1.8089)
Supports
1.8913 (Thursday’s high 08.03.2006), 1.8795 (short time ascending trend line from low at 07.25.2006 at 1.8383 to low 08.03.2006 at 1.8700), 1.8680 (23.6% retracement from 1.7229 to 1.9127)


CHF

Weekly chart CHF trend – Bearish
Resistances
1.2285 (50.0% retracement from 1.3284 to 1.1920), 1.2365 (Tuesday high 08.01.2006), 1.2395 (the top part of “orchid” channel)
Supports
1.2190/80 (Friday’s low at 1.2190, low 06.05.2006 at 1.2185 and 61.8% retracement of 1.1920 to 1.2593 at 1.2180), 1.2049 (38.2% retracement from 1.3284 to 1.1287), 1.2015 (low 06.05.2006)


JPY

Weekly chart JPY trend – Capped?
Resistances
115.53 (high 08.04.2006), 115.77/81 (23.6% retracement from 108.96 to 117.86 at 115.77 and low 07.21.2006 at 115.81), 116.63 (resistance line from high 12.04.2005 to 04.11.2006 at 116.63 and 61.8% retracement from 121.38 to 108.96)
Supports
113.97 (Friday’s low 08.04.2006), support 113.44/43 (low 07.10.2006 and 50% retracement of 108.96 to 117.86 at 113.43), 111.32 (low 06.02.2006)