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  #391 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2017, 01:06 PM
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Date : 10th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were down, with Japan under pressure (closed down -0.79%at 19,301) as the Yen strengthened. The ASX is also in the red, while the Hang Seng outperformed ahead of economic data out of China later in the week. U.S. and European stock futures are heading sound after already being under pressure yesterday while oil prices are little changed, with the front end USOil future trading around the USD 52 per barrel mark. Bond futures remain supported as stock markets correct and while the drop in Sterling has for now underpinned the multinational dominated FTSE it may not be long before inflation concerns pick up again and weigh on Gilt futures. There is nothing in today?s calendar to shake up markets, with only inflation data out of Norway, French production and Swiss unemployment.

FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-softer, losing moderately versus the euro and yen, but gaining versus a still-underperforming sterling. USDJPY logged a two-session low of 115.19 as Tokyo markets returned to the fray following a long weekend in Japan. The conjecture in the market is that higher oil prices and recent weakness in the yen have eroded BoJ easing expectations, which has shifted the relative yield dynamic. USDJPY?s low from last week at 115.07 is in the frame. A breach below here would put the pair in one-month low territory, and a daily close below here would signal a shift to a downside bias. Supports are at 114.77-80 and 114.40, the latter of which is the present situation of the 50-day moving average. EUR-USD clawed out a 12-day peak at 1.0627, before ebbing back under 1.0600 to the upper 1.05s. Cable traded softer versus yesterday?s closing levels, but remained above yesterday?s 10-week low at 1.2124 ,while EUR-GBP clocked a fresh eight-week high at 0.8735. Weakness in the pound was sparked by weekend remarks form PM May, who suggested that a ?hard? Brexit is the course being set.

Overnight Data: UK Shop price index rose more than expected to 1.0% in December as UK shoppers spent significantly more on food in the week before Christmas. Poor Retails sales figures for Australia failed to den the AUDUSD rally; Retail Sales grew only 0.2% in November against expectations of a 0.4% rise. Mixed data from China as PPI index beat expectations at 5.5% (4.5% expected) and CPI missed expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY when 0.3% and 2.3% were expected respectively. Better news from Japan as consumer confidence grew to 43.1 from 40.9 last time and beat expectations of 41.3 (consumer confidence in the US is expected at 98.5 on Friday)

US Data Yesterday: US consumer credit surged $24.5 bln in November, stronger than expected, after a $16.2 bln increase in October (revised from $16.0 bln). Non-revolving credit paced the rise, jumping $13.5 bln versus $13.8 bln in October (revised from $13.7 bln). But, revolving credit was up a solid $11.0 compared to the prior $2.4 bln gain (revised from $2.3 bln) ? it?s the largest increase in this measure since February 2001, with the record $19.5 bln increase set in April 1998.

Fedspeak: Lockhart said it?s too early to estimate fiscal policy effects, in his written remarks. That?s a contrast from some of his colleagues who priced in some upside risk due to fiscal expectations. And he added it is unclear whether the economy is positioned for markedly higher growth. GDP is forecast at around 2% over the next few years, less optimistic than several others on the Committee, and below the markets? hopes. Inflation is projected to move to 2.0% this year or next. He still looks for a gradual pace of rate hikes. It?s time for the FOMC to shift to ?more of a support role? as the new administration comes into play.

Main Macro Events Today

US Wholesale Trade ? Wholesale trade data for November is out today and should reveal a 0.4% sales headline for the month with inventories up 0.9% as indicated by the advance economic indicators report. This follows respective October figures of 1.4% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio ticking up to 1.31 from 1.30 in October.

Canada Housing Starts ? Housing starts are expected to improve to a 190.0k unit rate in December from the 184.0k pace in November. The ever volatile multi-unit category was the source of the decline in total starts during November: multi-unit starts fell 7.7% to 105.9k in November while singe-detached units were steady at 60.9k. Underlying starts growth remained steady in November, as the six-month moving average was 199.1k from 199.6k in October. Permits, also due Tuesday, are expected to reveal a 5.0% drop in value during November after the 8.7% gain in October.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #392 (permalink)  
Old 01-11-2017, 09:20 AM
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Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets managed to move higher, with Hong Kong outperforming as stronger metals boosted miners. The Yen retreated, which helped to underpin gains in Japan, while mainland China underperformed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 51 per barrel, after the latest slump and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are down. Sterling up from recent lows, but still down against most currencies, which should continue to underpin equities, (UK100 closed at a record high for the ninth consecutive day yesterday) but is also reviving inflation concerns. This added to Gilt underperformance versus the Bund yesterday and saw yields moving higher. In the Eurozone spreads were volatile throughout the day yesterday, and yield curves steepened as the short end outperformed again, highlighting that as inflation is making a comeback, the ECB is struggling to get a grip on the long end despite QE, although the most recent dip in oil prices, if sustained should help to dampen inflation concerns somewhat and base effects should see headline rates peaking in Q1 this year, before falling back somewhat. The local calendar has U.K. trade and production data, as well as a German 10-year Bund sale, but markets will be looking mainly to Trump?s eagerly awaited press conference.

FX Update: Forex markets have been hunkering down ahead of the U.S. president-elect Trump?s press conference, his first since the election, scheduled later on Wednesday, looking for some clarity on the political and fiscal agendas of the incoming administration. USD-JPY has settled around 116.00, above last week?s one-month low at 115.07, and below the pre-Christmas trend high at 118.66. EUR-USD has become entrenched in a narrow orbit of 1.0550, holding just below the 50-day moving average at 1.0571. We see Trump?s conference as something of a wildcard, though there is a chance he will manage to reignite the Trumpflation rally. This would follow bond guru Gross remarks of yesterday, where he argued that a sustained break in the U.S. T-note yield above 2.60% ? which Gross reckons is much more important than Dow 20,000, $60-a-barrel oil or parity in EUR-USD ? would mark the beginning of a ?secular bear bond market.? Such a scenario would fuel another upward adjustment in dollar valuations against most other currencies.

Kuroda and Abe meet: BOJ?s Kuroda says meeting with Abe was a regular one and they discussed the global economy, specifically the US economy. They touched on Trump but no actual reference was made to the president-elect and both see the US economy growing ?steadily?. No reference or report on the FOMC rate hike cycle. USDJPY continues to pivot around the 116.00 handle.

Overnight Data: The U.S. wholesale report was modestly disappointing, with a 0.4% November sales rise after a downwardly-revised 1.1% (was 1.4%) price-led October surge, alongside a 1.0% inventory gain that exceeded the 0.9% increase in the advance indicators report, following a 0.1% drop in October. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in November but are still outpacing inventories overall in Q4 as oil prices rebound, following Q3 weakening in both sales and inventories. The Q4 GDP growth estimate has increased slightly to 1.6% from 1.5%, but this trims Q1 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.4%. Expectations are now for a $14 (was $10) bln inventory addition and a still-lean $21 bln accumulation rate that extends the $16.5 bln bounce in Q3, as inventories are now reversing a big five quarter inventory headwind that culminated in a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2. U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 71k to 5,522k in November after dropping 180k to 5,451k (revised down from 5,534k). The rate edged up to 3.7% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). November hirings rose 59k to 5,219k following the 39k increase to 5,160k (revised from 5,099k). The rate was steady at 3.6% (October was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 41k to 3,064k from -29k to 3,023k (revised from 2,986k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1%. The JOLTS report is an important one to Fed Chair Yellen, but this is rather old news for the markets and hence didn?t move the ticker.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker announced his retirement for October 1 on the Richmond Fed?s website. He?s been the bank?s president since August 2004, but has been with the Richmond Fed since 1989. He has also been a serial dissenter, opposing the consensus in all of his voting turns. In his last stint in 2015 he dissented twice against the consensus unchanged policy stance. And back in 2012 he opposed the FOMC?s outcome in all 8 meetings. He was the lone opponent in 2009, but it was with respect to QE and the purchase of Treasuries. But back in 2006 he dissented four times, each for a 25 bp hike. There?s going to be a lot of turnover at the Fed during Mr. Trump?s administration. He has two open governorships, while Atlanta Fed?s Lockhart already announced he?ll be stepping down in February. Meanwhile, Chair Yellen has indicated she plans to continue through her term which ends early in 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

Donald Trump Press Conference ? Scheduled for 16;00 GMT. No a data release but by far the most significant event of the day. A wide ranging event is expected including Tax reform, immigration controls and reference to the Wall and climate change. Of particular interest to traders will be the incoming administrations (Mr Trump specifically) approach to trade and the impact particularly on the Mexican and Chinese currencies. Trade War Round 1?


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #393 (permalink)  
Old 01-12-2017, 11:57 AM
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Date : 12th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, with Japan underperforming and the Nikkei closing with a 1.19% loss as the strength of the yen weighed on exporters. The first press conference of the incoming U.S. administration disappointed and initially sparked a fresh bout of volatility, with investors taking a wait and see stance now to get a clearer picture of what lies in store going ahead. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south and the Bund future, which outperformed yesterday, lost much of its gains during the PM session. Eurozone spreads narrowed yesterday and the German yield curve flattened as the short end underperformed, while the U.K. yield curve steepened on short end outperformance. Today?s calendar has the first estimate of German 2016 GDP, seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in 2015. The calendar also has Eurozone production data for November, as well as the final reading of French December HICP and the ECB?s minutes for the Dec meeting.

The Dollar got Donalded: Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said. That would certainly explain his skepticism about the intelligence community?s motivations and secrecy. His conference roamed wildly across the range from fake news, to reaffirming the Mexico wall will remain an urgent priority (the peso plunged through 22.0), along with the relationship with Russia, Pharma pricing, hacking protections, the Trump Trust, Veteran?s affairs, etc. The conference was wide ranging and characteristically frank, leaving the press on their heels and markets chomping in ranges, but not essentially charting a new course. He was all rather vague and the markets reacted accordingly, the USD fell from its heady heights and continued to decline overnight. EURUSD sits at 1.0630, USDJPY under 114.50 (at one month lows) and Cable over 1.2240.

Carney: BoE Governor Carney said Brexit-related risks have ?gone down? during testimony, in terms of what he described as the immediate scale of risks, before a parliamentary select committee. However, he warned that a disorderly Brexit process, where there is no transitional arrangements, could lead to ?unforeseeable moves in markets.?

Fedspeak: NY Fed?s Dudley spoke on reforming the culture in banking, in his written text on ?Remarks at the Culture Imperative ? An Interbank Symposium.? He noted the NY Fed was prompted to work on this issue after the LIBOR manipulations and misconduct highlighted the importance of culture. He believes evidence points to an industry wide problem, across firms and countries. Also, he stressed that reforms must be industry driven, while not denying the importance of regulation. He did not discuss monetary policy.

Main Macro Events Today

German 2016 GDP The first estimate for full year 2016 GDP is as usual released before the Q4 numbers are out, but with expectations for a robust fourth quarter growth rate, is widely seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in the previous year. The numbers will confirm that Germany is on a solid growth path, and confidence indicators suggest that this will remain the case in the first quarter this year, although going ahead, there are numerous downside risk.

US Import & Export Prices December trade price data should reveal a 0.7% increase for headline import prices and a 0.2% decline for export prices on the month. This follows respective November figures which had import prices down 0.3% with export prices down 0.1% for the month. Oil prices resumed there rebound in December so there is some upside risk to import prices.

US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of January should reveal a 252k headline, up from last week?s 235k which marked a low extending all the way back to the1970?s. Claims are expected to average 258k in January, about matching December?s 257k average and up from 252k in November.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #394 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2017, 01:53 PM
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Date : 13th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Aftershocks from President-elect Trump?s campaign-like press conference, which had weighed on global stock markets and yields started to recede late in the U.S. session and U.S. equities managed to recover part of their losses. Asian markets rebounded led by Japan as the Yen weakened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher, while the front end Nymex future is trading around USD 53 per barrel. Bund futures already started to head south in the after hour session yesterday and core yields are likely to move higher in early trade. The European calendar only has the BoE?s credit conditions survey and the final reading for Spanish December HICP, leaving markets to focus on global developments.

FX Update: The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday?s one-month low at 113.75. EURUSD has firmed up to around 1.0630 after logging an intraday low in Asia at 1.0603, but still remains some 50 pips below yesterday?s one-month peak. While doubts have now crept in about U.S. president-elect Trump?s reflation plans following his fractious press conference on Wednesday, returning some support to the dollar have been Fed speakers, who were not been shy yesterday in warning of upside risks to policy in 2017, with the debate hottest over how quickly to hike rather than when to do so. Another batch of U.S. data today will help shape Fed policy expectations, though Trump may have his work cut out to reignite the sputtering Trumpflation trade.

U.S. Reports revealed surprising firmness in December export prices alongside a restrained oil-boost to import prices, and a largely expected 10k rise in initial claims to a still-firm 247k that signals a tight start for 2017. For trade prices, the relative firmness in export versus import prices trimmed Q4 GDP growth prospects, though we left our estimate at 1.6%. For claims, gyrations through the New Year?s week can be attributed to holiday volatility, though we?re encouraged that claims are starting January below the 258k December average. Next week?s BLS survey week reading will likely undershoot the 275k December BLS survey week figure. We expect a 180k January nonfarm payroll rise that matches the average monthly gain in 2016, though this average faces a likely downward bump with the next report?s annual revisions.

Fedspeak: Chair Yellen?s speech contained surprises and keynote comment was that sh e thought ?short term I would say I don?t think there are serious obstacles. I see the economy as doing quite well? Fed?s Bullard maintained a rather circumspect outlook on policy and the economy. He projects only limited movement in rates, reiterating his views noted earlier of perhaps only 1 tightening this year and noting there is little reason to alter policy as the Fed nears its goals. There shouldn?t be any undue pick up in inflation. Job growth is likely to slow this year and next. And in terms of the new administration?s policies, he said it?s questionable what will actually occur. Bullard is not a voter this year. Kaplan: Fed should be removing accommodation in 2017, with growth forecast at greater than 2%, even without any fiscal boost. The U.S. is pretty near full employment and inflation is heading to 2%, though there?s some slack in the labor market and more demand than supply for skilled workers. He expects regulatory review and tax reform to help boost productivity, along with infrastructure investment. Kaplan said he will be scrutinizing decisions on trade, immigration and Obamacare for any impact on growth, while manufacturing plants need to be allowed flexibility in supply chains. This about par for the course, with the Fed evidently predisposed to normalize rates in 2017 all else equal.

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales ? December retail sales data is out today expectations are for a 0.7% headline with the ex-autos aggregate up median 0.5% on the month. This follows November data which had the headline up 0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%.

US PPI Data ? December PPI data has expectations to post a 0.3% with the core index up 0.2% on the month. This compares to respective November figures which posted a 0.4% headline and a 0.4% increase for the core. Despite the fact that oil prices remain at depressed levels we did see a 14.0% climb in WTI prices in December which could lend some support to the headline.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment ? The first release on January Michigan Sentiment should reveal a headline increase to 98.5 (median 98.4) from 98.2 in December and 93.8 in November. Consumer confidence measures have been posting improvements since the election and the January IBD/TIPP poll has already reveal an increase for the month with a rise to 55.6 from 54.8 in December.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #395 (permalink)  
Old 01-16-2017, 10:00 AM
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Date : 16th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.




Main Macro Events This Week

U.S. markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day. This will be a busy week for traders, with the inauguration of president-elect Trump on Friday headlining. While that won?t be market moving in and of itself, investors and traders anxiously await clarity his ambitious agenda to be outlined in his 100-day plan once he assumes office.

United States: This week?s data calendar is busy and includes several important releases. The December CPI report (Wednesday) will be key after the surge in the inflation expectations. Also on tap this week is December industrial production (Wednesday). The Empire State data (Tuesday) and The Philly Fed reading (Thursday) will be watched closed as these are as close to real time indicators as possible. December housing starts (Thursday) and other data this week includes the January NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Wednesday), and November Treasury capital flows (Wednesday).

Fedspeak: Considerable Fed presence this week; Chair Yellen will make two appearances (Wednesday & Thursday), Dudley (Tuesday). Dallas Fed?s Kaplan, Minneapolis Fed?s Kashkari both (Wednesday). Fed?s Harker, a voter, speaks on the economic outlook (Friday). Also, Williams will give closing remarks (Friday) at the Bay Area Council meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed releases its Beige Book (Wednesday) for the January 31, February 1 FOMC meeting. It will be interesting to see what references are made regarding the post-Trump surge in equities and the pick-up in several of the manufacturing and sentiment numbers.

Canada: The main event is the Bank of Canada?s rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report (Wednesday). Expectations are for no change to the 0.50% rate. Manufacturing (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 1.0% rise in shipments after the 0.8% drop in October. The December CPI (Friday) is projected to be unchanged. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October.

Europe: The focus this week is on the first ECB meeting of the year. Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold. German PPI inflation (Friday) is expected to jump to a 0.9% y/y clip from 0.1% y/y, and the data will confirm that for at least Germany. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for January is due (Tuesday) and is expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. Other data releases include Eurozone trade and BoP numbers for December, which will be too backward looking to change the overall outlook.

UK: December inflation data (Tuesday), labour market figures covering November and December (Wednesday), and official December retail sales (Friday). Carney speaks Monday and PM May on Wednesday at Davos; these two could be fundamental to the performance of Sterling this week.

China: Releases are back loaded to Friday. Q4 GDP highlights and is expected to print a 6.7% y/y rate, unchanged from Q3 clip. In fact, 6.7% has been the reported rate of growth for each of the three quarters of 2016 so far. December industrial output is forecast at 6.0% y/y, slightly slower than the 6.2% seen previously, and would be the slowest since July. December retail sales are penciled in at a still robust 10.6% y/y from 10.8% in November. And, December fixed investment is seen at a 8.2% y/y rate, little changed from 8.3% previously.

Japan: Revised November industrial production is due (Tuesday), having originally posted a 1.5% monthly gain.

Australia: The calendar has the employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 15.0k gain in December following the 39.1k rise in November. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.7%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to fall 2.0% m/m in November after the 0.8% decline in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #396 (permalink)  
Old 01-17-2017, 09:27 AM
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Date : 17th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed, with Japan and ASX heading south amid reports that U.K. Prime Minister May will announce plans for a hard Brexit at today?s keynote speech. Yen strength is also continuing to put pressure on the Japanese markets. Mainland Chinese markets meanwhile mostly managed to pair losses in late trade and the CSI 300 is currently unchanged on the day while the Hang Seng is up 0.48%.Oil prices are little changed on the day, with the front end WTI future trading at USD 52.30 per barrel and Gold benefiting from the risk on mood trading at USD 1212. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, after European markets already closed in the red yesterday, while core bond yields came off, with Sterling weakness for once not weighing on Gilt futures, which outperformed yesterday as inflation considerations are balanced with the risks of weaker growth going ahead as the U.K. seems to be heading for an exit from the single market. May?s speech aside today?s calendar includes U.K. inflation data for December, as well as German ZEW investor confidence (see below)

Canada Home Sales: Existing home sales improved 2.2% m/m in December after the 5.3% tumble in November?s seasonally adjusted home sales. The pull-back in November was the largest one month decline in 4 years and corresponded with the implementation of tightened mortgage regulations. The increase in December is contrary to expectations for another decline. But total actual (not seasonally adjusted sales) fell 5.0% compared to the level in December of 2015. New listing fell 3.0% in December versus November. Prices continued to climb on an annual basis: the MLS HPI was 14.2% higher y/y in December while the national average sales price grew 3.5% y/y.

Davos Speak: (From the BBC) ? The big draw at the World Economic Forum in Davos today is Chinese president Xi Jinping who will officially open the event this morning. It is the first time a leader from China has attended the event. Early afternoon, Anthony Scaramucci, a member of US president-elect Donald Trump?s transition team, will talk about the outlook for America. Shortly afterwards, the outgoing US secretary of state, John Kerry, will discuss ?diplomacy in an era of disruption?. Then Satya Nadella, the chief executive of Microsoft, will tackle the issue of artificial intelligence alongside Zhang Ya-Qin, boss of China search engine giant Baidu. Other highlights include The Future of Finance: John Cryan, the boss of the troubled Deutsche Bank takes part in a panel discussion on where now for the industry and Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz will examine how to end corruption.

ECB?s Praet: ECB policy was focused on avoiding deflation trap. The Executive Board member said at a conference in Paris late yesterday that the ?when you have a very slow growth rate with an increase in unemployment for a long period of time, you get into a sort of vicious circle. You have to use the tools that you have to support demand?. Praet said that ?it has been key from the central bank point of view to avoid the de-anchoring of inflation expectations? with ECB policy ?driven by the mandate and by avoiding that we fall into a sort of deflationary trap?.

Main Macro Events Today

UK CPI & PPI ? 09:30 GMT ? YoY UK CPI data is expected to increase to 1.4% from 1.2% last time, with the Core figure up to 1.5% from 1.4%. MoM for December expected to increase to 0.3% from 0.2%. PPI figures also released at the same time this morning with input figures expected to increase to 2.2% from -1.1% last time and output figures expected to increase to 0.3% for 0.0% last time.
German ZEW ? 10:00 GMT ? December expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. This would be consistent with a quarterly growth rate of 0.4% in the first quarter of this year after a broadly similar number in Q4 2016.
UK PM May Speech ? 11:45 GMT ? Expected to outline 12 key points for UK?s exit from the EU. No ?half in, half out measures?. Prerelease of speech from Downing Street overnight.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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  #397 (permalink)  
Old 01-18-2017, 10:16 AM
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Date : 18th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets continued to stabilise during the Asian session, and the Nikkei closed with a 0.43% gain as the Yen retreated and markets started to shake off the most recent Trump jitters while the Dollar stabilised. Hong Kong outperformed and most Chinese shares gained amid speculated state intervention to ensure more stability as President Xi Jinping visits Davos for the World Economic Forum. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher. The FTSE 100 underperformed yesterday as the Pound bounced back from recent lows, following May?s Brexit speech, but Sterling is already retreating again and this is helping the FTSE to win back lost ground, which could see yields picking up again today, especially as the Bund future already started to come off highs going into yesterday?s close and today?s final German and EMU inflation data for December and UK labour data. Oil held over $52 and GOLD continued in positive mood around the key $1212 level.

German HICP confirmed at 1.7% y/y, as expected, with prices up 1.0% m/m. The sharp acceleration from just 0.7% y/y in November was mainly due to base effects from lower energy prices and the breakdown showed that prices for heating oil jumped 21.9% y/y in December, after still falling -6.7% y/y in the previous month. Petrol prices rose 6.0% y/y, after falling -2.2% y/y in December. Still, even excluding household energy and petrol, the annual rate jumped to 1.6% from 1.2% in November and the data will back the critics of Draghi?s expansionary policy in Germany. The Eurozone headline rate, due later today, remains lower, but at 1.1% has also been trending higher ? at least for now. But with growth picking up and the labor markets improving, there is the risk of second round effects, especially in areas where wage indexation still remains in place.

UK PM May Speech: UK PM confirmed that Brexit really does mean Brexit, setting a course for the UK to make a ?clean? break from the EU, meaning a departure from single market membership and the customs union. That is the bottom line from her long-awaited, platitude -laden (Britain to be ?truly global ? profoundly internationalist? etc etc) keynote speech that is laying the government?s four principles and 12 negotiation priorities for Brexit. Among the highlights, May confirmed that the Brexit deal will be subject to parliamentary approval, which should not be too much of a surprise but has still gone down well in markets, sparking a rally in the pound, which has built on gains seen after hotter than expected UK inflation data earlier. Cable rallied by 3% at seven week highs above 1.2400, putting in some distance from Mondays? three-month lows that were seen just under 1.2000.

US Data: The Empire State headline drop to 6.5 trimmed the December surge to an 8-month high of 7.6 (was 9.0) from 2.2 (was 1.5) in November and a pre-election -5.5 (was -6.8) in October, leaving a big net climb despite the January setback. And, the component data beat estimates to leave an ISM-adjusted Empire State rise to 50.7 from 48.8 (was 48.9) in December, 47.3 (was 47.2) in November, and 46.9 (was 46.3) in October, with small annual revisions that did little to alter the trajectory. We expect a January Philly Fed drop-back to 14.0 after the December spike to a 2-year high of 19.7, a Richmond Fed drop to 7.0 from 8.0, a Dallas Fed rise to 16.0 from 15.5, a Chicago PMI rise to 55.0 from 54.6, an ISM downtick to 54.5 from a 2-year high of 54.7, and an ISM-NMI downtick to 57.0 from a 1-year high of 57.2 over the past two months. The mix should allow the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to rise to a 2-year high of 54 in January from 53 in November and December, 51 in October and 50 in August and September.

FedSpeak: Fed governor Brainard said more rapid rate hikes are likely if fiscal policy changes quickly eliminate labor market slack, but a gradual path of rate hikes will be appropriate so long as inflationary pressures are muted. She sees fiscal change that persistently raises aggregate demand alone could reduce the ability of fiscal policy to respond to future shock. Brainard views risks for the domestic economy as closer to balanced than they have been in a long time, while full employment remains in reach and could be sustainable with the right policy mix. Like the risks she cites, her views are pretty balanced. NY Fed dove Dudley is optimistic about the U.S. expansion, expecting it to continue, though ?long in the tooth.? He doesn?t think Fed action will snuff out the expansion anytime soon as inflation is not a problem. He sees pressure on labor resources increasing, but quite slowly, while dollar strength will pressure import prices lower and limit domestic producers from raising prices. Dudley sees household finances in unusually good shape at this stage in the cycle, while challenges in retail are not due to aggregate demand but changing consumer demands.

Davos Speak: (from BBC) IMF managing director Christine Lagarde will discuss Squeezed and Angry: How to Fix the Middle Class Crisis along with renowned economist Larry Summers who served in the Obama administration. Government ministers from UAE, Egypt and Tunisia will examine The Future of Arab Economies. Economists Kenneth Rogoff, Joseph Stiglitz and Larry Summers are part of a discussion on Economics for the Global Commons. Pierre Moscovici, the European Commissioner for economic and financial affairs, taxation and customers will be involved in a discussion on The European Disunion. Joe Biden, US VP for just two more days, will give a special address at the forum this morning. And in the afternoon Al Gore will talk about climate change. Of interest will be an interview with Jack Ma, founder of China?s internet giant Alibaba.

Main Macro Events Today

Yellen Speech ? (20:00 GMT) ? ?The Goals of Monetary Policy and How We Pursue Them? at the Commonwealth Club, in San Francisco. Possible policy implications ahead of Trump inauguration on Friday.

US CPI ? The December headline CPI is expected to grow 0.3%, while the core index rises 0.2%.Forecast risk: downward, as oil prices gave up some of their gains in November.Market risk: downward, as inflation undershoots may affect the timing of additional rate hikes. Energy prices are expected to remain flat, with a 1% gasoline price increase. Food prices have risen by 0.1%-0.4% per month over the past three years, though the drought in California had an upward effect with last year?s 0.5% May rise being the largest since August of 2011.

BOC Rate Decision ? The consensus outlook is no change to the 0.50% rate setting today alongside a cautiously constructive view of the growth and inflation outlook. The base-case policy assumption remains for no change in rates this year, followed by an eventual shift to modest rate increases by the middle of 2018.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #398 (permalink)  
Old 01-19-2017, 01:00 PM
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Date : 19th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher, as Fed?s Yellen said she expects to hike rates few times a year through 2019 to 3% neutral rate. The weaker Yen helped to underpin Nikkei and Topix, while the drop in energy prices added to pressure on Chinese stocks with energy producers and miners leading the way down. The front end WTI future has lifted somewhat, but remains firmly below USD 52 per barrel. U.S. stock futures are also down, while FTSE 100 futures are posting gains, despite a stronger Pound. In Europe the focus turns to today?s ECB announcement, where Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold and will be under pressure to defend the ECB?s QE extension as inflation lifts higher and growth remains strong. The calendar also has Swiss producer price inflation and Eurozone BoP and current account data for November.

BOC: Larger Question Marks on the Outlook; The Bank of Canada delivered the widely expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting alongside a modestly more upbeat domestic and global growth outlook. The outlook is largely similar to October, but the degree of uncertainty has increased according to Governor Poloz. Hence, the Governor, in his Q&A, said that a rate hike remains on the table. While the outlook remains very uncertain, consensus is to see no change in rates for an extended period as the most sensible base-case policy scenario.

Fed Chair Yellen: Said she can?t give the timing of the next hike, but noted the Fed is close to meeting its twin goals, in her comments at The Commonwealth Club. As suggested by the outcome of the December FOMC meeting and the dot-plot, she noted that she and most of her colleagues expect ?a few? rate hikes a year. The next tightening will be a function of the economy over the coming months (that suggests a March move is unlikely). It makes sense for the Fed to gradually reduce monetary policy support.

US Data: U.S. reports revealed a hefty 0.8% December industrial production rise thanks to a 6.6% utility output surge that reversed the prior 9.7% weather-induced 3-month drop, alongside a 1.8% vehicle assembly rate bounce before a likely January drop-off, and a 0.7% business equipment rise that reversed a 0.7% November decline. Expectations are for a resumption of positive industrial production growth in 2017 led by a 2.4% Q1 clip, after a 0.6% weather-induced Q4 contraction rate that left a 7th decline over the last 9 quarters. We also saw the expected December CPI headline gain of 0.3% (0.282%), though the core price rise of 0.2% rounded down from a surprisingly firm 0.230% gain that sets the tone for bigger price gains in 2017.

Davos Speak: (from the BBC) Bills Winters and Briyan Moynihan, of Standard Chartered and Bank of America respectively, will be part of a panel examining the Global Banking Outlook.?Santander chairwoman Ana Botin forms part of a discussion on Which Europe Now?-Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook, will discuss A Leader?s Resilience. Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and founder of Bayshore Global Management, will be sharing his ideas. Bill Gates and GSK boss Andrew Witty take part in a discussion on CEPI: A Global Initiative to Fight Epidemics. Saudi Arabia and Russia will discuss the Global Energy Outlook. The UK PM Theresa May will pitch her Brexit plan to leaders and the Russian deputy PM Igor Shuvalov will talk about Russia?s place in the world.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Rate & Statement ? ECB is widely expected to keep policy on hold after clarifying the policy outlook through to the end of the year, with purchase targets cut back to EUR 60 bln again from April. The ECB obviously tried to create some stability at least on the monetary front amid heightened uncertainty on the political front ahead of the Brexit talks and amid the change in U.S. administration. However, with inflation jumping higher, the central bank?s policy is coming under more scrutiny again and much of the press conference will likely be an exercise in trying to play down the importance of the rise in HICP to the highest level since 2013 as the ECB is heading for a further expansion of its balance.


US Housing Starts ? Should reveal an increase in the pace of starts to 1,184k from 1,090k in November and a recent high 1,340k in October. Permits should climb to a 1,230k pace from 1,212k in November and completions should be 1,100k from 1,216k in November.

US Phili Fed Index ? Should reveal a headline decline to 15.1 from 19.7 in December and 8.7 in November. Revisions to the Philly Fed were released last week and lowered December?s headline slightly. More broadly, producer sentiment is expected to remain firm in January with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures rising to 54 from 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #399 (permalink)  
Old 01-20-2017, 10:24 AM
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Date : 20th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th January 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, after U.S. and European shares closed in the red Thursday. Japan and mainland China bourses managed to move higher (Chinese GDP beat expectations at 6.8%), but investors are cautious ahead of the inauguration of President elect Donald Trump. Bund futures managed to move up from lows yesterday, after Draghi re-affirmed the central bank?s commitment to further QE and kept the easing bias in place, despite the jump in inflation, but yields still moved higher and the DAX closed in negative territory yesterday. Gilts and FTSE 100 underperformed. Today?s European calendar is pretty quiet, with only German PPI at the start of the session and U.K. retail sales, which will leave the focus firmly on the U.S.

German PPI inflation jumped to 1.0% y/y in December from 0.1% y/y in the previous month. Not a total surprise considering the sharp acceleration in import price inflation previously and the pick up in HICP that month. Still, the numbers serve to highlight that the rebound in inflation is well and truly underway, even if producer prices remain the main driving factor so far. Indeed, the breakdown showed that energy prices were up 0.2% y/y, after falling -1.7% in the previous month, while non-durable goods prices jumped 2.1% y/y, after 1.5% y/y in November. With growth continuing strong, however, and the labour market looking very tight, while house price inflation is also picking up sharply, the risk of second round inflation effects are rising at least in Germany, although for now that doesn?t seem to impress Draghi too much, who yesterday confirmed the ECB expansionary course for the year.

FX Update: The dollar has settled moderately lower, by about 0.2% versus the other majors, as markets brace for Trump?s inauguration later today, hungry for further detail on his plans for fiscal and trade policies. USD-JPY has ebbed back under 115.00 after rallying strongly over the previous two days. Resistance is marked at 115.31, which marks the present situation of the 50-day moving average. The 20-day average is at 115.65. EURUSD has recouped to the upper 1.06s, about a big figure up on yesterday?s low at 1.0589. Cable has settled around 1.2350, also about a big figure higher relative to yesterday?s low while remaining below the week?s high at 1.2616 and the 50-day moving average, at 1.2400.

BOC: Fed Chair Yellen: She was less hawkish yesterday and toned down her earlier policy stance. ?Gradual monetary adjustments were prudent?, although she warned against letting the economy run hot. Yet on Wednesday she had cautioned that waiting too long to raise rates could lead to ?too much inflation, financial instability, or both,? amid comments by other Fed officials that also favoured faster hikes.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales ? Expectations are for a YoY to increase to 7.3% with a flat December at 0.2%.

Canada CPI ? Expectations are for unchanged (0.0%) in December versus November, contrasting with what is usually a sizable pull-back in this not seasonally adjusted index during December. Our projection for the steady reading on December month comparable CPI is due to the collision of the typical seasonal decline with a hefty increase in gasoline prices. Total CPI is seen accelerating to a 1.7% y/y pace in December from 1.2% in November.

President Trump Speech ? 14:00 GMT ? Expect the unexpected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #400 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2017, 11:14 AM
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Date : 23rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2017.




FX News Today

President Trump has his feet under the desk in the Oval office and the tone of his inaugural speech and actions over the weekend reiterated his campaign themes to ?Make America Great Again?. The unapologetic dogmatic ?America First? rhetoric caused markets to pause on protectionism and trade barriers. The media once gain came under scrutiny over claim and counter claim from the new administration for attendances at the inauguration, and the women?s led demonstrations on Saturday. The NAFTA came under immediate review, the new Presidents tax returns will not be released ?People didn?t care. They voted for him? (Kellyanne Conway) and the USD sold off significantly at the beginning of the new trading week.

United States: The week starts with existing home sales (Tuesday) forecast to rise just 0.2% to 5.62 mln in December following the 0.7% gain in November. The MBA mortgage market report (Wednesday) is due, alongside the EIA energy inventory report. The Advance trade report is forecast (Thursday) to show wider deficit to the tune of $65.7 bln in December, while the Chicago Fed national activity index is on tap, along with an expected 20k rebound in initial jobless claims to 254k for the week ended January 21. New home sales are expected to sink 2.0% to a 580k unit pace in December. Advance Q4 GDP is projected to sink to 2.0% from 3.5% in Q3 (Friday), Durable goods orders are expected to rebound 2.5% in December vs -4.5% previously and final Michigan sentiment is seen revised up to 98.5 in January from 98.1 initially.

Fedspeak runs dry this week after the flurry from Yellen and company last week, though it is entirely possible that some impromptu remarks could be forthcoming. Overall, even the doves now appear wary of unleashing fiscal stimulus with the jobless rate down at 4.7% and core CPI inflation topping 2.2% y/y ? levels that Yellen suggested are consistent with the Fed?s twin goals.

Canada: Wholesale shipments (Monday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October. The establishment survey (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 0.1% gain in average weekly earnings during November after the 0.1% dip in October. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week. Governor Poloz delivers a speech at the University of Alberta School of Business on January 31.

Europe: Eurozone markets will be looking to the U.S. this week, as investors await more guidance on U.S. economic policies going ahead, but also on the future relationship between Europe and the U.S. and the implications for Nato. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI predicts a rise to 55.0 from 54.9, while we see the services reading at 53.7, which should lift the composite to 54.5 from 54.4. French business confidence is seen steady at 106, and the German Ifo Business Climate reading is expected to rise to 111.3 from 111.0 in December

UK: PM May last week at a long-awaited keynote speech on Brexit set the course for the UK to make a ?clean break? from the EU. This cleared up a chunk of uncertainty, helping put a floor under the beleaguered pound. Cable rallied by just over 3% in the wake of the speech last Tuesday, helped on its way by a spike in CPI data, in what was the biggest single-day rally the pound has seen since 2008. May will also be the first foreign leader to meet with the new USA President this week. January CBI industrial trends and distributive trades surveys (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively). The first estimate of Q4 GDP is also up (Wednesday), growth of 0.5% q/q and 2.1% y/y is expected, which would be slightly off the 0.6% and 2.2% pace of Q3. Overall, as-expected outcomes in the data should not have much impact on sterling markets.

China: The docket is empty.

Japan: The December trade balance (Wednesday) should reveal a wider surplus, to JPY 400.0 bln from 150.8 bln in November. December services PPI are penciled in at up 0.3% from the 0.2% increase previously. December national overall CPI (Friday) is seen up 0.1% y/y, down from 0.5% previously. Core CPI is expected at -0.4% y/y, unchanged from November.

Australia: The calendar is highlighted by the CPI (Wednesday), expected to gain 0.6% in Q4 after the 0.7% gain in Q3. The Q4 PPI and trade prices for Q4 are due on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia?s schedule remains empty this week, with nothing due from the bank until the meeting in early February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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