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  #421 (permalink)  
Old 02-16-2017, 10:00 AM
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Date : 16th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets continue to move higher and after European and U.S. bourses closed with gains, most Asian markets also managed to rise. Japanese bourses were the notable exception, with investors apparently spooked by a rise in indices of future volatility in U.S. markets, which raised doubts about the sustainability of the especially the U.S. run higher. A stronger yen, which weighed on automakers and exporters didn?t help either and the Nikkei closed with a -0.47% loss. U.S. stock futures are indeed in the red, while FTSE 100 futures are still managing gains, after yesterday?s broadly higher close in Europe. The FTSE 100 managed to close above 7300 and the DAX also remains at lofty highs even if gains above the 11800 mark could be held into the close. The Italian MIB underperformed after some rumors that Renzi is pushing for snap elections in September, which would only add to Europe?s political challenges this year. Today?s data calendar is quiet, with Italian trade numbers, as well as Eurozone current account data and inflation numbers from Sweden.

FX Update: The dollar has remained on a back foot, marginally extending the correction from post-U.S. data highs of yesterday. USDJPY has fallen back under 114.00, logging a low of 113.76 in Tokyo trade today. The move comes after the pair topped out at near three-week highs of 114.95 in the aftermath of yesterday?s hotter U.S. CPI outcome. Good selling was reported from the highs, with profit taking ramping up into the key 115.00 level, where a wave of Japanese exporter offers is reportedly sitting. The 50-day moving average is at 114.88. EURUSD has breached above yesterday?s peak in making 1.0624. AUDUSD rallied to a three-month peak at 0.7732, since settling just under 0.7700.

Fedspeak: During Fed Chair Yellen?s testimony, to House Financial Services Committee, she did state that she believes much of the rally on Wall Street is a function of hopeful fiscal policy expectations. The firmer dollar, meanwhile, reflects expectations of Fed rate hikes. She hopes that the economy will allow the Fed to raise rates faster. On the border tax, she sees great uncertainties with respect to impacts on trade and currency flows. Unfortunately, much of the day?s testimony saw grandstanding from many committee members who seemed more interested in throwing barbs at the new administration, rather than discussing key issues of monetary policy and the economy. Hence, there weren?t any fresh insights on how Yellen viewed today?s stronger than expected data and if the reports upped the chances for a March tightening. Meanwhile, Fed?s Harker repeated he supports 3 rate hikes this year, assuming the economy remains on track, in his speech on the economic outlook. The economy is more or less back at full strength he said, forecasting GDP growth a little above 2%. And he expects the inflation target to be met later this year or next. He does think the economy needs more workers and immigration could help.

US reports: revealed a wide array of upside surprises that have boosted prospects for the consumer and factory sectors in the face of rising confidence, small business optimism and producer sentiment, with a solid inventory reversal and a big bounce in the inflation gauges into 2017 that lift the risks of a Fed tightening at the March FOMC meeting. We saw January retail sales gains of 0.4% overall and 0.8% ex-autos after upward revisions, alongside a 0.4% December business inventory rise that lifted Q1 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.0% after an expected Q4 boost to 2.2% from 1.9%. We saw a 0.3% January industrial production drop that reflected temporary weather and auto hits, but with upward revisions that left a strong report, alongside a February Empire State surge to a 29-month high of 18.7 with an ISM-adjusted pop to 54.5. We saw a 0.6% January CPI gain with a 0.3% core price rise that left respective y/y gains of 2.6% for the headline and a cycle-high 2.3% for the core.

Main Macro Events Today

ECB Report ? ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Report.
US Philly Fed Index ? February U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index is expected to dip to 15.0 after a January surge to 23.6 from 19.7 in December. The Empire State index for the month was already released and posted a big headline bounce to 18.7 from 6.5 in January. Producer sentiment in February now looks poised to hit a two-year high with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures rising to 55 from 55 in January.

US Housing Starts & Unemployment Claims ? January housing starts data should reveal a 1,226k headline for the month. This would be an unchanged pace following the 11.3% bounce to this level in December from 1.102k in November. Initial claims data for the week February 11 expected to rise to 247k after a big dip to 234k in the week prior. Claims in February are expected to average a stronger 244k in February from 247k in January and 258k in December.

NZ Retail Sales ? New Zealand?s Retail Sales for last quarter of 2016, expected to rise by 0.2%, i.e. 1.1% from 0.9% last quarter.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #422 (permalink)  
Old 02-17-2017, 09:58 AM
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Date : 17th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th February 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. U.S. stock futures are also in the red and only the FTSE 100 future is posting marginal gains. The correction in stock markets seems to be continuing Reflation trades have run out of steam for now and investors remain hesitant as indices remain at lofty highs. It may need another trigger though, to push the FTSE 100 lastingly above 7300 and the DAX above 11800. The correction on bourses should continue to underpin bond futures, with long yields heading south again yesterday especially in Eurozone peripherals after yesterday?s BoE minutes confirmed that the central bank is considering temporary deviations from QE purchases according to the bank?s capital key. Today?s calendar includes Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as U.K. retail sales and Swedish inflation data.

FX Update: The dollar has consolidated losses, with major pairings showing less than a net 0.2% chance since the New York close yesterday as London interbank traders take to their desks. USDJPY has settled in the mid 113s after logging a low of 113.07 in the New York PM session yesterday, which completed a near two-big figure drop from Wednesday?s peak. EURUSD has steadied in a narrow range shy of yesterday?s 1.0670 high. It?s a similar picture in other pairings. We retain a bullish view on the dollar the back of the contrasting Fed versus most other central bank policy outlooks, with the former expected to trigger three more 25 bp hikes this year.

US reports: revealed a round of big upside surprises for business and consumer sentiment, alongside solid labor market and housing sector readings, hence adding to the robust round of data released on Wednesday. We saw a February Philly Fed surge to 43.3 that left the strongest reading since January of 1984, when payrolls rose 446k and GDP growth reached 8.2%, and the ISM-adjusted measure rose to a 6-year high of 57.8, leaving a spike reminiscent of the small business optimism surge. We saw a rise in yesterday?s Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to a 10-year high of 48.1. We saw small 5k rise in initial claims to a lean 239k in the second week of February, leaving an average thus far for the month of just 237k. Finally, we saw a 2.6% January housing starts drop with a 4.6% permits increase that beat estimates thanks to upward revisions to prior starts figures that left a strong trajectory for both measures to likely Q1 new cycle-highs, after solid but weather-boosted Q4 figures.

New Zealand and Japan: New Zealand?s calendar has Producer Price Index during the weekend (Sunday). Additionally, Japan will release adjusted Merchandise Balances and Import, Exports data for January late on Sunday as well.

Main Macro Events Today

UK Retail Sales ? The UK?s official retail sales report for January is up today, where a 0.9% m/m is expected, rebound after the unexpectedly sharp 1.9% m/m drop in December, though be warned as already-released January surveys of the sector by the CBI and BRC suggest downside risk.

US CB Leading Indicator ? US Leading Indicator released by the Conference Board for January, expected to be unchanged following the 0.5% in December.

Canada Foreign securities ? Canadian calendar today, features International Securities transactions for December, where $11.59B expected from $7.24B reported last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #423 (permalink)  
Old Yesterday, 10:16 AM
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Date : 20th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th February 2017.




FX News Today

It?s been a busy couple of weeks so far in February with politics dominating, though monetary policy issues were back in the spotlight with Yellen?s testimony and the ECB minutes indicating the bank mulled stepping back from QE via the capital key. There will be no want of global issues, data, and events ahead to keep the markets choppy. Of course, Mr. Trump will remain a focal point, especially as tax initiatives may be trickling out, though the border adjustment tax may be on the ropes. But there is also rising angst over the upcoming French elections after the Left considered combined forces. A Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting is on tap, with Greece bailout problems back in the spotlight. Attention is also turning to March ? Beware of the Ides. There are two important events on the 15th, the FOMC meeting and the elections in the Netherlands. Each could have significant market consequences ahead.

United States: The U.S. calendar is a relatively lean one this week when markets reopen on Tuesday after the long President?s Day weekend. The February Markit Flash PMI (Tuesday) is likely to show a dip to 54.0 on manufacturing from 55.0. MBA mortgage market data are due (Wednesday), along with existing home sales forecast to rise 1.1% to 5.55 mln from 5.49 mln. Initial jobless claims may bounce back 8k (Thursday) to 247k for the week ended February 18. The week winds down with new home sales (Friday) forecast to rebound 6.3% to a 570k unit pace in January from 536k in December. Michigan sentiment (final) is expected to be left unrevised at 95.7 in February.

Fedspeak: The Fed minutes (Wednesday) will be scoured for clues on the policy stance, but the report has lost much of its impact in the wake of chair Yellen?s testimony and the strength in recent data on inflation, sales, production, and confidence. Of course, the Fed left policy unchanged at its February 1 meeting. The key for the report will be the degree to which policymakers thought a rate hike might be affected sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, there are only likely to be a minority of FOMC members who were factoring in fiscal stimulus into their outlooks, and the majority won?t front-run fiscal initiatives. Rather than the minutes, the markets will look to upcoming data, especially payrolls, to fine-tune March rate hike probabilities. Geopolitical risks and market impacts will also play a part. While Fedspeak will be important, Chair Yellen didn?t show any urgency for a March tightening, nor have the two voting doves, Evans and Kashkari. Minneapolis Fed centrist Kashkari will take part in a conversation on the economy and the role of the Fed (Tuesday) from 8:50 ET and Philly Fed hawkish Harker discusses the economic outlook from Wharton in Philadelphia from 12 ET. Governor Powell will give his update on policy and the economy (Wednesday). Later in the week (Thursday) Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart will be ?Looking Back on 10-years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta? from 8:35 ET. Yellen?s next scheduled speaking engagement is set for Friday, March 3 at an Executives Club of Chicago even.

Canada: The holiday shorted week is long on important economic reports. While markets are closed Monday for Family Day, Statistics Canada will release wholesale trade, which is expected to reveal a 1.0% m/m gain in shipment values during December. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen expanding 0.1% in value terms during December. But the ex-autos aggregate is expected to improve 1.0% after the 0.1% rise in November. The wholesale and retail reports will solidify the December GDP outlook. Average weekly earnings for December are due Thursday, and are expected to be consistent with a tame compensation backdrop. The CFIB?s Business Barometer survey of small and medium business for February will also be released Thursday. The January CPI (Friday) is expected to power higher by 0.4% m/m in January after the 0.2% drop in December. Annual growth is projected to accelerate to 1.7% y/y from the 1.5% y/y growth rate in December. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins participates in a panel discussion (Tuesday) at the Competition Bureau Ottawa, but the remarks will not be published on the Bank?s website.

Europe: The data calendar heats up with the second round of February confidence data in the form of Eurozone PMIs and the German Ifo, but with Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting at the start of the week, the Greek bailout problems will remain in focus and election jitters and Eurozone breakup concerns are also unlikely to go away. The latter has been fueling increased volatility in peripheral spreads over the German benchmark, but also yield curves in recent weeks, although speculation of possible ?real? QE tapering also played a role, as growth remains robust and inflation spiked higher. Data releases include detailed Q4 GDP readings from Germany and the Eurozone. The German February Ifo Business Climate expected higher to 109.9 from 109.8, as strong orders are hoped to have lifted the expectations readings, but with inflation and import, as well as producer price inflation, rising sharply and political risks picking up, confidence indicators come with a slightly higher error margin than usual. Meanwhile PMI readings are expected to come in narrowly mixed across countries, but remain firmly above the 50 point no change mark. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.2 from 55.2, while the services reading is seen at 53.8, slightly higher than the 53.7 in the previous month. At the same time inflation is moving higher and the Eurozone HICP reading is expected to be confirmed at 1.8% y/y, already broadly in line with the ECB?s upper limit for price stability. With core inflation stuck much lower at 0.9% y/y, the data does back Draghi?s view, however, that the uptick is driven mainly by base effects from energy prices, which means so far at least the ECB is content to ignore the rise and remain on course for a further expansion of the balance sheet. The calendar also includes final inflation numbers from France and Italy, as well as French national business confidence numbers. Germany sells EUR 1 bln of 30 year Bunds.

UK: Sterling came under pressure last week, losing ground to the G3 currencies, along with other European currencies and the dollar bloc units. One bearish driver has been data. The other bearish driver is the nearing start of the EU exit negotiation process, as there remains uncertainty about how the process will pan out. Markets will get a better hold on this once the negotiation gets under way. The UK data calendar schedule this week starts with the February CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a near steady +4 reading, in the headline total orders reading. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Tuesday), ahead of the second-estimate of Q4 GDP (Wednesday), which is widely anticipated to come in unrevised at 0.6% q/q and 2.2% y/y. The February CBI distributive sales survey (Thursday) has us anticipating a moderation in the headline realized sales figure, to 24 from 26 in January. BBA mortgage approvals are also due (Friday).

Japan: The December all-industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in a -0.3% m/m, reversing November?s 0.3% gain, given the broad-based weakness in the tertiary index, with wholesale and retail trade lower. January services PPI (Thursday) should come in at 0.5% y/y from 0.4%. The accelerating price pressures are good news for the BoJ. Revised December leading and coincident indices are due Thursday.

Australia: The calendar has a double dose of Governor Lowe: The Reserve Bank of Australia governor speaks at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney (Wednesday). And he appears before The House of Representative?s Standing Committee on Economics (Friday). The minutes to the February meeting will be released Tuesday. Recall the Bank held rates steady at 1.50%, matching expectations. Economic data features Q4 private capital expenditures (Thursday). The wage price index (Wednesday) is projected to grow 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.4% gain in Q3.

New Zealand: The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. The bank held the OCR steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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  #424 (permalink)  
Old Today, 11:00 AM
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Date : 21st February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st February 2017.




FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Hang Seng and ASX are in the red, but bourses in Japan and mainland China managed to climb higher. The Nikkei closed up +0.68%, underpinned by a weaker yen helped to underpin exporters and the BoJ?s purchases of exchange traded funds. Carmakers and banks gained, while telecommunication shares dragged. Comments from Fed?s Harker that he wouldn?t take a March hike off the table underpinned a stronger USD and U.S. stock futures are also higher, while FTSE 100 futures are down, as Sterling rose in tandem with the Dollar. The FTSE 100 already underperformed yesterday and once again didn?t manage to close above 7300, while the DAX finally seems to be taking the 11800 mark. Bund yields dropped yesterday despite the stronger currency, after progress in Greek bailout talks, Gilt yields rose, as did French yields as Le Pen continues to advance in the polls. Frexit remains very unlikely, but after the U.K. and U.S. poll surprises, markets are not taking any risks this time around. Today?s calendar has Eurozone PMI readings for February, as well as U.K. public finance data and final French inflation numbers.

Japan: Japan?s preliminary Manufacturing PMI for February exceeded expectations and climbed up to 53.5 from 52.7 last time. This value is a multi-year high. As Reuters states, Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 54.3 (53.2 in January) has been then sharpest rate of growth for three years, which can be reflected to a record-high for business confidence at Japanese manufacturers. Samuel Agass, economist at IHS Markit, stated that: ?Japan?s manufacturing engine shifted into a higher gear during February, as faster increases in output, new business and employment were reported. Subsequently, business confidence was at a survey-high, with goods producers buoyed by the strongest upturn in the sector for 35 months. ?

Canada: Canada?s wholesale improvement bodes well for December GDP: The 0.9% increase in shipment volumes suggests wholesalers will provide a solid positive contribution to GDP. The 2.3% gain in December manufacturing shipment volumes should be the driver of the expected 0.3% m/m gain in December GDP. An as-expected monthly gain would leave a 2.0% GDP growth pace in Q4 overshooting the BoC?s 1.5% estimate and presumably providing additional reassurance to the bank that the pick-up in the economy anticipated for 2017 is on track. Retail sales volumes are expected to contract. Housing starts improved 10.2% to a 206.3k unit pace in December. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the upside. Energy export values grew 15.9% m/m in December, but higher prices were the reason for the gain. Yet the manufacturing report?s petroleum and coal shipment values grew 11.6%, driven by firmer volumes as a number of refineries resumed production after maintenance and retooling work in September and October.

Germany: German PPI inflation jumped to 2.4% y/y from just 1.0% y/y in the previous month. The uptick was higher than expected and the breakdown confirmed that the turnaround from the firmly negative rates last year was mainly driven by a sharp pick up in energy and basic goods prices. The former jumped to 4.0% y/y from 0.2% y/y in December, while basic goods price inflation rose to 2.4% from 1.1%. Price increases for durable as well as non-durable goods remained pretty stable, and it will take some time for the uptick in energy prices t feed through, but with a tight labour market, the risk of second round effects are higher in Germany than in most other Eurozone countries.

Australia: RBA February Meeting minutes were published early today, and extended on an unchanged rate decision. Hence higher commodity prices and higher terms of trade have been observed, which lead Australian dollar to a slight growth. For Inflation, RBA mentioned that based on the enhanced labor conditions, wage inflation us likely to show a quicker increase.

Main Macro Events Today

EU PMI ? Preliminary PMI readings for February, are expected to come in narrowly mixed across countries, but remain firmly above the 50 point no change mark. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.2 from 55.2, while the services reading is seen at 53.8 slightly higher than the 53.7 in the previous month, which should leave the composite unchanged at 55.4. The Eurozone recovery remains intact, but with preliminary consumer confidence taking a hit this month, the political clouds gathering over the monetary union mean the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.

UK BOE & Finance Data ? January?s government borrowing data is also up today, and expected to come down to -14.4B from 6.4B last time. Also, Governor Carney is going to give a speech later today.

US Markit PMI ? The February Markit Flash PMI expected to show a dip to 54.7 on manufacturing from 55.0. The Markit services PMI is seen slipping to 55.5 from 55.6.

RBA ? RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

Fedspeak ? Minneapolis Fed centrist Kashkari will take part in a conversation on the economy and the role of the Fed from 8:50 ET and Philly Fed hawkish Harker discusses the economic outlook from Wharton in Philadelphia from 12 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
__________________
HotForex is an award winning, fully regulated and licensed online forex and commodities broker. Offers various accounts, trading software and trading tools to trade Forex and Commodities for individuals, fund managers and institutional customers. Retail, IB and White Label Clients have the opportunity to access interbank spreads and liquidity via state of the art automated trading platforms.
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