[Dan007]

The market essentially hasn't got a clue what it wants to do. Itcontinues to follow S&P futures and stoned green shooters still talkabout a jobless recovery. I still cant believe what I am hearing, cansome smart economist explain a dumb Essex man how a jobless recoveryworks when you have no equity in your house and you and your friends arelosing your jobs? Yes the financial industry is doing well but at whatstage is the ever increasing delinquency rates on mortgages, creditcards, home loans, car loans etc going to outweigh the profits banks aremaking on a few new issues and nice wide bid offer spreads. All thatsaid there is now a debate going on whether we can hit the March lows instocks or have we seen the worst. Personally I think we do test thoselows again as you don't fix a 20 year spending spree in 3months. I dohave good news however for technical reasons I would be very surprisedto see EM corps trade at levels they did last year or early part of thisyear. Bonds are in safer hands plus free floats are smaller as issuershave bought back their own debt at discounts. The focus for the nextcouple of weeks is definitely on corporate earnings. I am no chartistbut stocks need to find support here otherwise it could be another notso sunny Summer for the markets. Not all is lost however as the Ashesstart tomorrow and the Open begins next week, plenty of green shootsthere!

Mr P......

[rollingstone]

Originally Posted by Dan007

Charts are crisp and clear now...
D

Hi Dan, hi all

I've been in the room pretty much full time now for almost a month and my learning curve is phenomenal, just being able to benefit from full sessions every day is amazing. I mean I could see trades before I left the rat race, but not all of them and mainly just with the trend jobbies. Nothing wrong with that I know, but there are so many more opportunities.

Anyway, just doing some homework on divergence as James and Zak talk about it alot and saw this example of hidden divergence on a day I would have previously just looked at and seen a mess then a move of 150 pips. When you look closely at the chart and know what you are looking for all the clues are there.

Two 15m charts, one with candles and the other with heiken ashi (I like both), with SW42 added to show the 30m pullback. The hidden divergence shows a lower low on the chart but a higher low on the SW21 indicating a possible continuation of the up trend. A break of resistance and away she goes for 150 piperoonies, or you could wait a few extra pips to break through the 4hr 20ma, last one to tackle (obviously wasn't Jason Robinson - I loved him). I stuck the Fibonacci Expansion on just for good measure and it reaches T1 perfectly.

I would never have seen this sort of trade before, or even looked for it but being in the room has opened my eyes to so many more trading opportunities. Thanks Dan.

Learning fast RS

PS Just got told off for asking when the Ashes "kicked off", hee hee, you don't kick off in cricket apparently. Well when does it tee off then? You men are so easy to wind up.

PPS I know the chart is from April it's just where I got to on my studying.

[Dan007]

Good morning team

As expected Indices have continued their respective falls. Oil is back down at 62.72 and continues to look weak. On the back of that the USD will likely remain supported until we see the Indices find support.

CABLE
• Daily, 4hr and 60min trends are down and we should be looking to either add to a short or get short on a trend reversal.
• 1.6057 is the low from yesterday so a break through here would push us down towards the 1.6000 level which is bound to hold a little support.
• You can play this break with a very tight stop above the 57 level but make sure the short term CCI´s are not too oversold at the time of entry.
• Technically I would like to see a pullback this morning back up to the DP or just above at 1.6205
• From here I would then be looking for a lower high to confirm a double top before another push lower again.
• Everything is positioned in the red and therefore trying to play the retracement up for a few pips will be difficult.
• For me it could be a patient morning for CABLE and wait for the 60min trend to change before I even tempt going long.
• Verdict is still to wait for the double top and trade with the trend again.

EURUSD
• Daily, 4 hr and 60min trends are down and we should be looking for a short play through the respective support levels.
• Key support is at 1.3876 and we should look for a break through here for further downside potential
• As it stands the USD could go either way this am and with higher highs on the 15min chart I would like to see a change in direction with a double top before a short play (with trend) back down to support at 1.3876

JPY´s
• With USDJPY finally falling..(How long did that take!!!) EURJPY and GBPJPY have had the confidence to go with.
• They are bother slightly oversold and would like a small pullback (same as CABLE & EURUSD) before continuing their downtrends.
• Would like to see GBPJPY back towards the 153.20 region and EURJPY back to the 132.00 area.
• Remember to use the triggers to your advantage here and look for double tops on the short term charts to confirm trend reversals.

Verdict
• If you want to trade with the trend this morning then patience is needed.
• We are up a lot of pips this week, so let’s not get too greedy with trading against the trend.


Dan

[Dan007]

Its as quiet as a snail in a shoe box today...

Go and have fun.

See u tom.

D

[Dan007]

Stocks, commodities all struggling to find a mojo and yet EM still feelsfine. I am not sure if it's the money that was pumped into VTB thisweek via the CBR either way the market feels ok. Another market that isapparently doing very well is the high grade world. I am hearing newdeals flying out the door every other hour with many times oversubscribed books. Someone asked me earlier where is this liquiditycoming from? Clearly some is coming from the central banks and I amassuming we continue to see money market flows as well, however whetherthe cash from QE finds its way into real money is a question of debate.I don't know if I am being super sceptical but this market reminds me ofthe Nasdaq in 2000, everyone is piling into these new issues like theyare a guaranteed way to make money and we know how that one ended.Bottom line the market is difficult to call as the fundamentals remainawful but the liquidity remains ample.

Mr P......

[Dan007]

Good morning all

USDJPY as expected has made that big drive down towards the $90.00 which has helped EJ & GJ on their way. As mentioned yesterday you need a little patience with these trades and you must keep a firm eye on that 4 hour chart to give you that confidence to hold trades overnight.

OIL and Indices are still in a strong down trend which is assisting the USD. Every trade has been with the trend and that’s why JULY is such a good month.

CABLE
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma.
• 15min CCI and 60min CCI are both positive suggesting a little life in the beast. However lets remember the 4hr and daily trend is down.
• 1.6072 is immediate support but selling here with the DP and 15min 50ma at 1.6050 is risky.
• 1.6000 is always going to see a few brave buyers out there so we need to respect this level.
• For me the only trade is a 123 through the DP with the main trend.
• If I hit the break I will surely let you know.
• If for what ever reason OIL & Indices start to find support I would only be looking for a long back above 1.6142 with a 123.

EURUSD
• Very similar setup as CABLE.
• USDCHF is holding this fella back and would like to see the CHF break 1.0952.
• Some of you (in school) would have been sent my detailed video on EURUSD yesterday and we are still holding 50% after banking 85 pips.
• Same as CABLE I will be looking for a 123 south through the DP at 77.
• That 15min 50ma is like an Australian wicket keeper and catches a lot of people out.
• We need to see a break and then a pullback for any short play with the main trend.
• On the upside if USDCHF break 1.0850 then EURUSD would find support.
• No that keen on a huge long so would have to play 123 on a technical setup through the resistance at 1.3915.

USDJPY
• Same setup as CABLE and EURUSD.
• Major trend down, our15min 50ma behind the stumps so lets be patient and wait for the 123 and get all MA¨s behind us.
• 93.00 is the immediate support and 93.50 resistance.
• If this goes watch EURJPY through 128.75 & GBPJPY through 148.95

[Dan007]

Good morning all.

Quite a different day here yesterday, getting to grips with the whole dollar strength thing, poaching a few off the Swissie, smashing the Kiwi and for those of you fortunate to be part of the video alerts, almost a couple of hundred on the Gold to round off a great day.

Today looks like a different story altogether for the dollar. There is a potential for a double bottom on yesterdays low at 80.51, but there seems to be more bias at this stage of the day, for it to fall through here and head back to the daily 20 or lower.

Dow fell aggressively early into the US session along with commodities and yet the Dollar didn’t really take advantage of the situation until falling back somewhat late on with the Wall St bounce.

I am liking the buck down a bit this morning yet all dollar related currencies are still set up for shorts, so we must be a little cautious until such time as the 60m 20 crosses the 50.

USDCAD

This can make a little run south with the Dollar.

4hr 1hr & 15m trends are all telling me to take a small short one here to the 4hr 50 at 11625 and and then to the weekly pivot at around the 11550 level

Stops would need to be 40 pips above the price around the 15m 50sma at 11660.

AUDUSD

Again this is based on a weaker US dollar. If dollar weakness fails to materialise the leave this.

60m trend and 15m trend trying to push up against the longer term 4hr trend.

Always a little caution required but a chance that a break up through 0.7820 could see this to the 60m 50 somewhere up around the 0.7880 level.

Stop would ideally need to be situating itself just below the pivot.

We could even look for a 5m double top around the 60m 50 / 4hr 20 region at 07880 then go short with the main trend if USD finds support later.


Not massive pipers but a couple of small potentials playing the counter-trends.

Always use smaller stakes when playing against the 4hr trend.

Have a good morning

[Dan007]

Good afternoon

All these notes are emailed to you at 6.30am each morning.

It was a good day and we are building well for July. Zia was student of the day yesterday with 600 pips.

Today we went long of EURJPY and GBPJPY for a total of 65 pips. We also shorted UJ for 20 pips and still holding part.

We are respecting the trends and only playing breakouts against the trend for short term plays.

Overall another great day and kept it very tight. We are all set up for the big plays with the trend and hopefully they get hit later this afternoon.

D

[Dan007]

Ok so played break in EJ at 75, banked at DP which is support, shorted again at 80 for the 123 and looking for it to now break the DP which is the neckline. You can keep a tight stop above the figure if u like which was the previous break.

Lets see.

D

[Dan007]

Banked the short again at the DP and will re enter on break of DP ...

A solid 100 plus pip trade...

D