[Dan007]

Morning all

Enjoy the GBP weakness and Reuben get on that USDCAD after the break on the 123.

Enjoy and see you all on Tuesday.

D

[Dan007]

Well unlike Usain Bolt at the 100metres today was more like a marathonin a diving suit in comparison. Painfully slow and despite better datathe green shooters have hit the wall and are suffering from a minorstitch. I still say that this is a blip and profit taking relatedhowever the signal that the taps are being switched off is definitelynot helping matters. I had to chuckle to myself at the Bloomberg surveyfrom just last week that had investors feeling more bullish on equitiesthan they had done the last time the market collapsed in 2007. Flow wasthe same as the past few sessions ie real money selling (but in smallervolume) and retail buying. Although I believe we will see buyingeventually into this weakness one thing I would say is that if this doesturn into a proper, "squeaky bum time" sell off EM technically speakingis in a pretty good place. As discussed previously bonds are in saferhands than before, unlike the HG world where we have seen recordissuance. The reason I mention this is that despite the record issuanceof HG debt there are less dealers than there used to be plus limits areat best unchanged to what they were a year or 2 ago. My point being, ifwe see some decent selling of HG new issues, dealers (most of whom havemade budget for the year) will be less inclined to put their ars*s onthe line and buy paper. The result will be a repeat of what we sawlast year, ie a liquidity driven sell off not necessarily related tofundamentals. If HG sells off it will have a knock on effect on EMwhich initially in my view will outperform. This evening for the firsttime in a while I'll be watching channel 505 to get a sense for where weopen tomorrow, a continuation of this will at least make the day becomemore like the 10,000 metres than a marathon!

[Dan007]

Good morning

I hope you are all well and that you are making a few (cheeky) piparoonies.

Speak soon.

D

[Dan007]

Good morning

Weak US PPI figure out yesterday has kept the stock market alive for the time being.

USDX is boxed between the WP and DP. Any break below WP at 78.79 will confirm further USD weakness. From this range I would stay away from buying USDX until we see a solid move back above MP at 79.15. Need confirmation of breaks this am for direction in USD.

CABLE
• A solid retracement from 1.6260 back to 1.6550.
• 4hr chart suggests if this 1.6500 region can hold the 4hr Golden Cross will come into play for a potential long play back up to test the 1.6800 region.
• The 60min chart suggests CABLE could be a little beast this am, as the range is 1.6507 to 1.6588 but it is hard to sell on the break into the DP and MP on the downside.
• Therefore I will only look to sell CABLE today either at the highs of yesterday, with a very tight risk play or wait for a 123 back down through the MP at 1.6475.
• Only buy option I have (at this level) is a very tight play at 1.6510/15 region with a very tight risk play below DP, for a bounce back up to yesterday’s highs.

EURUSD
• 4 Hour chart suggests lower highs and lower lows for a downward trend.
• Only support ahead is the MP and 60min 50ma.
• For short plays I would like to see a break of the MP for a 123 south and a Golden Cross of the 60min MA´s.
• On the upside I won’t be looking for any long plays until we see a 123 off the WP at 1.4192 for confirmation of support.


USDCAD
• It seems all charts are boxed between the MP and WP suggesting a boxed market with difficult trends to read.
• If CABLE tests the low side we would expect USDCAD to rally but I can’t look at any long plays until we break back above the MP or at least have a 123 above the DP and 60min 20ma.
• On the downside I have the WP at 1.0956 which will offer solid support.
• Potentially I could play the break to the WP from 1.1000 down to 56 but again a very risky trade.

Verdict
• See both ways this am so risk is high.

[Dan007]

Good morning

9.30am - Revised GDP for GBP Expect -0.8%

Better than expected Prelim GDP for States yesterday. Indices remain supported (for now) so USD still remains under pressure.

USD X
• Struggled to remain in its new range above the WP and is now back down close to Mondays lows around the 78.00 level.
• USD X not helping us too much to be honest and after yesterdays dramatic fall we should be wary of buying USD for the immediate term.

CABLE
• Large retracement off yesterdays lows at 1.6150
• Boxed between the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma
• Looking for break of either the high at 1.6303, or the DP (61.8 Fib) at 1.6245.


EURUSD
• As mentioned on the videos over the last week there is no need to short this fella.
• EUR is bid and any sign of a weak USD and EURUSD rallies.
• Would like to see a pullback to 1.4300 for a potential long play.

GBPJPY
• Would like to see USDJPY remain below its DP but if CABLE breaks its DP watch GBPJPY break lower as well.
• Will look to short through the DP (61.8 Fib) to test yesterdays lows.

Have fun

[Dan007]

Morning all

Sorry for the lack of time spent on here but James and I have been building the new website. Really looking forward to the new service starting from next week.

A good day today shorting USDCAD from highs to lows and buying CABLE on break to DR1 today.

Nice end to the week and keep short of USD for the time being.

Really think the SMS alert service will work well. Infact can't wait and takes all the hard work away from you all.

Speak soon
D

[Dan007]

Good morning

Indices finally make their statement yesterday and USD is back in the bullish books.

USDX looks supported above the Daily 20ma and DP at the 78.40/50 level. As long as the price holds this level I will remain looking for USD strength. The chart is setup for a perfect 123 with a bounce off the Daily 20ma but we need to see a pullback first. I am looking for weak USD first thing this am (pullback) but further strength later today.

Huge moves yesterday and good to see some of you taking the CABLE trade. 4 Hourly charts all look a little oversold (except EURGBP) so looking for retracements this am which would tie in nicely with the USD X.

CABLE
• Would prefer to keep selling this beast but not at this level.
• Looking for retracement back towards the 1.6240 region.
• Only anti trend play (I would be keen to play) is a re test to 1.6112 with a tight stop below.
• Verdict – Looking to buy off yesterdays low or sell around the 4hr 20ma.

EURUSD
• Similar to CABLE and needs a pullback,
• Looking to sell at a better level up at the 1.4260 region with the trend.

[Dan007]

Hi all

CABLE was a good long today and a great entry (for all of us) at the lows at 1.6120 with a stop at 1.6105. Small risk for a huge gain!!

You know the 4 hour and 1 hour charts are key and thats where i get my major levels from. The new blog is up and running and hopefully u r enjoying the new alert setups.

I have added the CABLE 4 hour chart below.

Well done
D

[rockdrive]

Hi di hi Campers - Back from hols; and a small break before my next project begins. Had a little go with the black beast today. Lovely set up. Take a peak at your hourly charts. Off the 20 MA and down. Managed myself a small 76 pips for a very modest risk. And all this before lunch. Amazing run on the Orange Lady. Where did that one come from. No pips for me but a definite show of strength. Hopefully some of the usual suspects on this thread snagged some.

Was interested to see cable do its mad slide this morning after news and then make the usual massive recovery. Like the look of EURGBP and fancy it lower myself. But play what you see and not what you read.

Rockie is well tanned - but somewhat larger around the girth. Too many cooked breakfasts, vin rouge and gallons of Koppaberg pear cider. Lovely jubbly. Its good to be back.

Ample Waist Rockie

[rockdrive]

EURGBP - called it lower and I managed a couple of pips on the slide. Had to go out today so I had a play with a limit order. Not as many pips as I would have liked but no complaints at my +40 blind. No trading tomorrow - I have to see a man about a sheep. Remember play what you see and not what you read. The only way to trade - is your own book.

Hope to post a few more items in the coming weeks - but no promises.

Happy Pipping.

Great Western Rockie