The London Open

[Dan007]

Worth a read if u get a sec...


I am not sure whether to laugh or cry and I am sure others are feeling
the same way. It is Armageddon out there and aside from a stock squeeze
that may suck a few buyers in I really don't have any good news for you.
I don't really think you need a commentary to be informed that the market
is in free fall, there is literally no bid for corporate cash whatsoever
and spreads are now irrelevant. Curves have begun to invert and the
majority of front end bonds have taken it in on the nose these past few
days as they should do in a crisis scenario. Some people are starting to call the bottom however
unfortunately I think are plenty of people out there who are in denial
need to sell but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Until these guys puke
I am afraid there is not respite for my market any time soon and in
addition we have the small matter of certain local banks having serious
liquidity problems and will sell whatever they can to make upcoming
margin calls. The big wide world is pretty scary, I ask you this what would this
market look like if the Fed hadn't bailed out AIG? Morgan Stanley CDS
trading up front and if it wasn't for Lloyds swooping in who knows where
HBOS would be trading right now. I guess if you want some positive news
at least the oil price is making our Chelsea tractors cheaper to fill up
and maybe our utility bills at some stage will cheapen up too. This
however is drowned out by the wealth destruction that we are in middle
of right now and that's if you are lucky enough to keep your job. What
do the several thousand people from Lehman's do who are out of work and
face a tough search to find another job in this environment? I am sorry
to report this bad news buts its fact everyone made a lot of money
between 02 and 06 and what goes up must come down. Sorry.

(A Bank)

[Dan007]

The Daily 50ma has just been hit by Gold...

[Dan007]

Good morning all and welcome to Thursday 18th September.

Well it was a good day yesterday and the markets went into turmoil again and Gold found its support. We will need to watch this london open to see if any retracement happens. I am now flat in Gold and waiting for the next move. I still feel my DOW will break 10,000 and GOLD will hit $1,000 again. Its only a small matter of time. The world is in a bad way unfortunately.

The 63 CCI on teh GOLD 60min is looking like it might cross but today i am seriously going to wait for direction in all markets and not jump in. IF GOLD rises this am expect EURUSD to follow.

If CRUDE finds support off pivot and attacks the upside again then USD weakness will come into play across the currencies. At the moment CRUDE looks very weak on the short term charts but still above the pivot. Dont want to sell into this at the mom so going to be patient. Maybe a 30-50 pt chance later.

GOLD is in that teasing zone. The 5 min could tempt u back in but not confident that the 60min chart has retraced enough. Patience is needed here.

With USD weakness coming back into play CABLE has found support and creeping up... Fundamentally GBP isn't something i am particularly fond of at the moment but technically it needed a pullback on the 4hr. The 126 CCI has now crossed and we are in the pullback zone between the Daily 20ma and the Daily 50ma. Play the CCI's welll here and remember its about momentum on the trades use the shorter CCI to get u in on the main trending CCI.

The USDCHF 4hr play is now on, as mentioned earlier in the week. A nice longer term play, as CHF is always more attractive than the USD and GBP in uncertain times. 1.0800 should be the 1st target looking at the 4HR chart around the Daily 50ma.

Ok good luck and remember to be patient and wait for the moves to show you which way London will move it... We can't tell until that time.

Speak later

D

[Dan007]

Typical Gold breaks the 60ma and jumps 70 pips....Missed it... Thought that wouldnt happen quite yet..

[Dan007]

Hi

You all know i like GOLD higher but with such an aggressive move away from the MA's yesterday i do wonder if a small double top will form on the 60min chart and we see a bit of a sell off later on technicals, b4 a push higher either tom or monday.

Keep an eye if and when we get anywhere near yesterdays high at 895, as volatility will increase and a few pips could be made.

Not certain but technicals would suggest that...

D

[William1000]

Originally Posted by Dan007

Worth a read if u get a sec...


I am not sure whether to laugh or cry and I am sure others are feeling
the same way. It is Armageddon out there and aside from a stock squeeze
that may suck a few buyers in I really don't have any good news for you.
I don't really think you need a commentary to be informed that the market
is in free fall, there is literally no bid for corporate cash whatsoever
and spreads are now irrelevant. Curves have begun to invert and the
majority of front end bonds have taken it in on the nose these past few
days as they should do in a crisis scenario. Some people are starting to call the bottom however
unfortunately I think are plenty of people out there who are in denial
need to sell but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Until these guys puke
I am afraid there is not respite for my market any time soon and in
addition we have the small matter of certain local banks having serious
liquidity problems and will sell whatever they can to make upcoming
margin calls. The big wide world is pretty scary, I ask you this what would this
market look like if the Fed hadn't bailed out AIG? Morgan Stanley CDS
trading up front and if it wasn't for Lloyds swooping in who knows where
HBOS would be trading right now. I guess if you want some positive news
at least the oil price is making our Chelsea tractors cheaper to fill up
and maybe our utility bills at some stage will cheapen up too. This
however is drowned out by the wealth destruction that we are in middle
of right now and that's if you are lucky enough to keep your job. What
do the several thousand people from Lehman's do who are out of work and
face a tough search to find another job in this environment? I am sorry
to report this bad news buts its fact everyone made a lot of money
between 02 and 06 and what goes up must come down. Sorry.

(A Bank)

Hi, Dan,

Now I am by no means an expert at this, but I posted this in the Boiler Room yesterday.
[17/09/2008 13:31:20] Honest Bill says: How about this then:
Take a look at dax weekly chart. Price is below monthly 50. The last time that happened it fell 3000 points after the tech wreck. Now credit crunch. May be more pain ahead.

[Dan007]

Look at GOLD move down now... The elastic band never fails.

Got in on break of 60ma on 5min at 865 and took profit at 855 for some nice pipage.

Going to be very careful today. Hearing rumours of central banks in the market. Could become very volatile.

The sharks are out so don't dip your toes in too far...

D

[Dan007]

Hi

Crude is playing the box well here... Would love to play break but pivot is at 95.00. One to keep an eye on but just to watch i feel.

This market is hard to read so i'm not even thinking logically behind why it moves up or down, i am purely trading what i see technically and getting in and out b4 they can burn me. I think this is best for now...

D

[Dan007]

Oh yeah i am working on these pivots but i have to say this is my weak spot.

Dont worry if mine are slightly different as i am playing with them at the mom.

I need help...Arrrrrr

D

[Dan007]

Crude is interesting at mom... If it breaks 96.20 the upside could look vv good. The 60min looks like the curve is turning.

Lets watch and see.

Oh i love this strategy game.

D