The London Open

[rockdrive]

Originally Posted by rollingstone

Hi All

Did anyone in the UK see "Paul Merton in India" on telly last week?

Well, Delhi is overrun with errant, cheeky street monkeys which terrify the locals so they have The Monkey Squad, government employees to chase them away - yep, bigger "take no prisoners" Langur monkeys that steam in shouting abuse and send them packing. They were real mean dudes who strolled in and loved their job. Those cheeky little monkeys just scarpered to the next neighbourhood mind you, and then the heavies have to go down the road and start again.

Ooo ooo ooo Monkey Magic.

Where are you hiding Ms White Bikini...............time for telly, but not time for trading....tut, tut, tut.....

Me thinks you are slacking....get back with the programme.

Prefect Rockie

[Dan007]

Morning all

As I type we are seeing some early moves in crude and gold.

Crude is breaking down and has broken the 15 min 20 ma on the 5 min chart. If anyone is short a target price of $78 would be where we expect some support with the hourly moving averages. We above the pivot and the hourly moving averages have crossed. This is a bearish sign and if the price holds around the figure we may see an attack of the four hourly 20 ma. If this breaks we have a big upside potential to the four hourly 50 ma.

Gold has made lower lows on the 5 min chart and looks like it wants to re test the lows at $834, however there is not much price action. If it breaks the hourly 20 ma, we may see a play up to R1 at 869.

EURUSD is overbought on the shorter term, 5 min chart. It looks like it is tired and we may see a slight retracement back to the hourly 20 ma. It is worth looking at the bigger picture here, as we can see with the angle of the four hourly 20 & 50 ma they may cross. The upside medium term target would be 1.3980

Cable is also overbought on the shorter term charts and we may see a pullback if the 5 and 15 min 20 ma can cross. For the medium term, a target price of 1.7716 is available. Remember to buy after red and sell after green.

Have a great day

D

[Dan007]

USDCHF has a strong resistance line coming down on the 15min chart. If it breaks on the upside, lok for a 123 on the 5min at around the 50 level for a potential move higher.

D

[Dan007]

Hi

Worth looking at EURJPY and USDJPY for break higher.

D

[Dan007]

Ok EURJPY and USDJPY through me the curve ball. Made 5 pips on USDJPY b4 cutting, with EURJPY falling and EURUSD falling. Went long of USDCHF and got bored of price action so cut for -3. The champ for me today was the cable. Took the short at 95 and banked on way down at 60, 50, 45 and 20. That made me the pips for the morning, so off for breakfast.

D

[Dan007]

Hi

A few guys have found me on skype...danarmitage007

Feel free to skype me and we can chat that way.

D

[rockdrive]

Today Pipsters I found myself getting royally distracted. Another trader and I were exchanging views on a thread on the direction of crude. It was an unnecessary exchange as I believe both of us are reasonably accomplished traders. The crux was it caused me to doubt my charts. Something I have not done in many a month. The lesson for me I shall share what I see, but if there be disagrement from another quarter I shall not engage in justification.

Trade what you see and don't get off by what others think, say or do. If you believe your charts you have to stay true.

Its been a miserable days trading for me. I let my Dow pips dribble away thinking it was just a small retracement. I was in at 9700 and up nearly 200 at one stage. Closed out like a chump for only 78 and the same with crude up 51 pips and closed at -9. I had some other highly notable failures on the dax and ftse where my take profit arrogance made sure I ended up with b/e!

I shall be stepping back a little. Too much pressure on myself to hit targets. I will be reverting to my old game plan; taking profit as it arises and making pips from smaller positions.

My two lessons; don't be put of by others and take profit

Tomorrow is another day.

Contrite Rockie

[Dan007]

A friend sent me this...

It's a shame I and the rest of the market were off yesterday because we couldn't really enjoy the mad rally that US stocks encountered particularly in the last hour. Its amazing what a little bear market squeeze does to people's mentality I saw more offer wanted enquiries this morning than I did for the whole of last week. Does the events of the last day mean all is fine, does a 10% rally in stocks say we are ok, the bull market is back, 100% NO. What it does mean is that we have a little more sanity in some of the pricing in my world which quite frankly had got completely out of hand on Friday. Now I am sorry to disappoint all the bulls out there because on Friday I was one of them however you cant lose sight of the fact that what is going on out there is shocking. Whilst the banks recapitalisation is great news because it covers the losses from the shambles of the last 18 months, I am guessing that banks have had to take a pretty hefty hit on their trading and loan books for the past months volatility so does that mean they will require more capital injections soon? Bottom line there is serious blood on the streets and today's price action in CDS perfectly highlighted why long corporates and long CDS as a hedge, is not a hedge unless you have the coconuts to unwind the CDS leg on the panic wide trade. So what's next, well short term we will be watching stock performance and money markets specifically, the measures introduced at the weekend should mean Libor rates come off towards central bank base/repo rates over the coming weeks which is a positive. I then think we will start to focus once again on data and my fear is that its going to be horrendous. You know I love a little anecdotal evidence well I have two snipits for you. Firstly my poor mate who is long a property with his friend (they couldn't afford a place on their own) and is now in a real pickle. In March it was valued at £310k, yesterday it was valued at £200k quite a drop and unfortunately now in negative equity, unpleasant for anyone, but even worse if its with your mate who wants out because he's fallen in love. Number 2 is more worrying, I was chatting to a friend of a friend who unfortunately had to go to the job centre after losing his job. The job centre's system was crashing under the weight of all the new applicants seeking work and when asked if it was full off bankers looking for work, the reply was "no they are from everywhere". The governments and central bankers have prevented a full blown systemic collapse, unfortunately they cannot create jobs, they cannot force us to spend money we haven't got and in my view cannot avoid a full blown global recession. I can hear some people say yes they own the banks now so they can encourage lending, that's all well and good but not at 10, 15 or 20 times your salary so property will continue to come off until it reaches sensible levels vs average wages. Unless we have a black Wednesday tomorrow it's a virtual Friday for me, as many of you know my trips abroad have coincided with many bouts of volatility in the past so get ready to strap yourself back in.

[Dan007]

Very quiet out there at mom...Looking at GOLD strength

D

[Bloom]

Sorry to hear you had a rough day yesterday Rock. At least I know you're not a robot. Seems you let a few emotions get in the way. I think you need days like that to get re-focused.

Back to taking profits. You never lose that way.