Trader456's trading ideas

[trader456]

Fundamentally I think high yield currencies have gone up too far, they should peak temporary this week.

My daily indicator has signaled sell for NZD/USD, I have been waiting the whole day for the hourly chart to signal sell. Finally after 5 hours wait, its here.

Shorted 100,000 NZD/USD at 0.7605
Stop loss at 0.7645
Target level at 0.7570

[earthy8]

WHAT is your INDICATOR?
earthy8

[trader456]

Non-farm payroll (NFP) number is being released today at the exact same time that ECB President Trichet begins his press conference, which means that we could see unusual volatility at the morning of US hours. The ECB press conference and the Non-farm payroll report will either neutralize each other or be a toxic combination for the US dollar.

Trading the Non-farm payroll is usually very difficult given the inherent volatility of the currency pair but given the 2 big event risks – the ECB rate decision and the NFP release.

The market currently expects a bad number, so a negative non-farm payrolls report will not be enough of a surprise. The current forecast calls for 60k jobs to be shaved off US payrolls. If payrolls come any where near -90k, the dollar would collapse against the Euro as the market questions the viability of a 2008 rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If payrolls on the other hand are better than -40k, it suggests that the labor market is bad but not as bad as everyone may have feared, which would be dollar positive.


Currently I am holding 2 forex positions:
1. Shorted 100,000 NZD/USD at 0.7605, stop at 0.7645, target level at 0.7570.
Current price is 0.7604, unrealised gain is US$6.

2. Bought 100,000 USD/CHF at 1.0154, stop at 1.0120, target level at 1.0200.
Current price is 1.0159, unrealised gain is US$58.22.

Since I do not know the outcome Non-farm payroll and the ECB press conference, there are a few ways to reduce my risk:
a) I can close my positions before the announcement can miss out the opportunity to profit when my initial view is correct.
b) I can adjust my stop closer to my cost level but the great volatility from post NFP announcement can easily trigger stop to my positions.
c) I can hedge my position using binary options.


1. Since I had shorted NZD/USD, I had bought Over for the binary option. So this means that in the situation that NZD/USD rises, I lost money from my convention forex position, at least I still win some money from my binary option.

I had bought US$80 for NZD/USD Over trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 0.7649, odds is 3. This means if NZD/USD goes above 0.7649 by 5am China time, I will win US$240. If not I will lose US$80, but I may gain much more from my forex position.

2. I had done the same for USD/CHF. Since I had bought NZD/USD, I had bought US$80 Under for the binary option. So this means that in the situation that USD/CHF falls, I lost money from my convention forex position, at least I still win some money from my binary option.

I had bought US$80 for USD/CHF Under trade for Daily expiration, strike price is 1.014, odds is 1.78. This means if USD/CHF goes below 1.014 by 5am China time, I will win US$142.40. If not I will lose US$80, but again I may gain much more from my forex position.

[trader456]

1. My indicator showing sell signal today.
Fear factor in the market will continue to strengthen JPY.
Hourly chart showing overbought region, so I think its time to short this pair.
Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69
Stop level at 168.62
Target level at 166.50

2. Double top formed for gold, indicator also signal sell.
Shorted 1 lot of gold at 931.13
Stop loss at 946.00
Target level at 920.00

[trader456]

Originally Posted by trader456

1. My indicator showing sell signal today.
Fear factor in the market will continue to strengthen JPY.
Hourly chart showing overbought region, so I think its time to short this pair.
Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69
Stop level at 168.62
Target level at 166.50

2. Double top formed for gold, indicator also signal sell.
Shorted 1 lot of gold at 931.13
Stop loss at 946.00
Target level at 920.00

Hourly gold chart shows oversold so I decide to take profit at 926.63. Realised profit is US$450.

I will short gold again if it rises to the resistance level of $933.

[trader456]

On 4th July, I had shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 167.69, stop level at 168.62, target level at 166.50.

EURJPY keeps going up, so I decided to cut loss at 168.23, realised loss is US$534.49.

[trader456]

Germany industrial production is negative 2.40%, below expectation of positive 0.30%. This has weakened EUR.

Shorted 100,000 EURJPY at 168.18
Stop loss at 169.00
Target level at 167.50


Chart: http://binarytrading.blogspot.com/2008/07/shorted-100000-eurjpy-at-16818.html

[trader456]

My indicator shows sell signal for silver and this indicator has achieved very good profits in my back-test.

I had advised my ex-customers actively on silver trading when I was a commodity sales because silver is much more gentle and predictable compared to gold. And many customers believe that silver has much more upside compared to gold in the precious metal family.

Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98
Stop level at 18.09
Target level at 17.40
Value of 1 point is US$1000

Chart:
Metal Trading: Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98

[trader456]

Originally Posted by trader456

My indicator shows sell signal for silver and this indicator has achieved very good profits in my back-test.

I had advised my ex-customers actively on silver trading when I was a commodity sales because silver is much more gentle and predictable compared to gold. And many customers believe that silver has much more upside compared to gold in the precious metal family.

Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98
Stop level at 18.09
Target level at 17.40
Value of 1 point is US$1000

Chart:
Metal Trading: Shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98

On 7 July, I had shorted 1000 units of Silver at 17.98, stop level at 18.09, target level at 17.40.

Good support at 17.60, silver price seems like not going lower. So decide to take profit at 17.72. Realised profit is US$260.

[trader456]

My indicator is showing buy signal and hourly chart is showing positive signal as well. Fed Chairman is giving a speech now, expects some solution on the credit crunch crisis, will strengthen USD temporary.

Bought 100,000 USDCHF at 1.0263
Stop at 1.0210
Target level at 1.0330

Chart: Forex and Binary Trading: Bought 100,000 USDCHF at 1.0263