My million-dollar forecasts

[scorpion]

I'm going to make a few forecasts a week on forex. See if I can collect a million dollars in the next few years. Seriously!

Wish me good luck!

Forecast #1, 2006-07-28 12:00 UTC:

EURUSD right now is 1.2662. I predict that it will go down at least 60 pips, most likely 100 pips!

[scorpion]

2006-07-28 13:50 UTC. EURUSD = 1.2745 (moved up 83 pips)

I made a stupid mistake! The actual forecast was that US inflation rate would rise. When inflation rises, USD will go down in value, but i thought EURUSD would go down too. In fact when USD losses value, EURUSD will go up. That means EUR can buy more USD when USD is cheaper. Will take extra caution on this one next time.

Accept the loss anyway, Total Net Profit/Loss for July 06 = -85 pips

[scorpion]

Tomorrow (2006-07-31), EUR will gain some value and at the same time USD will loss a little. This will make EURUSD pair go up a bit. This signal is not clear enough to make a real trade though, so pass it. Let's observe what will happen tomorrow.

Meanwhile, JPY will gain value a little too, so expect USDJPY to go down.

[gazuz]

This should be interesting, using the news to trade it. Maybe you should make different threads for different currency pairs? This is just my suggestion as I will stick with the EUR/USD

[scorpion]

Forecast #2, 2006-08-01 12:30 UTC: EURUSD will go down more than 50 pips starting from 12:30 GMT till day-end. So sell EURUSD at market price at 12:00 UTC. Don't let the position live longer than 5 hours, because USD will lose its by value soon after.

Forecast #3, 2006-08-01 23:30 UTC: AUDUSD will go up more than 70 pips starting from 23:30 UTC. This is surefire! so be prepare!

[scorpion]

Oh, Forecast #2 should be 07:00 UTC not 12:30 UTC. It was wrong timezone.

[gazuz]

UTC? I'm sorry I might be tired but what is UTC? I usually see times as GMT

[scorpion]

Heh UTC or GMT is the same. Some guys interpret GMT as GMT+1 in summer, but UTC is static all year round.

[scorpion]

Ok, #2 result: EURUSD did go down 40 pips starting 12:30 UTC and retrace back up at 15:30 UTC. Ok, if i were entering the trade, i would move SL to breakeven after 40 pips profit.

#3 result: AUDUSD did go up 70 pips, but the correct entry timing was at 12:30 UTC, the same as forecast #2. This forecast took home only 30 pips.

Any pending trades should be closed by now.

Total Net P/L (Aug 06):
EURUSD: 0 pips
AUDUSD: 30 pips

[scorpion]

I played at betonmarket on AUDUSD and won 54% net return. (130 bucks won 200)

I'm gonna win another 17 bucks tomorrow if AUDUSD is still above 0.7624. The joy of gambling! Will it last long?