Market News and Analysis by bforex

 

EURUSD:

The EUR has been trading a range between the 2 Fibonacci levels of 61.8% and 50%, generated from 2009's high and low. From a straight Support and Resistance perspective we would put Resistance at 1.38 and Support at 1.3450. As the EUR closes in on Support we will take a closer look at price action possibilities. A close below 1.35 would be significant although we would not call out the EUR bears until we see a close below the 61.8% level, which may cause the EUR to dip below 1.30.

NZDUSD:

The NZD has been using the 100 day moving average and the 200 day moving average as Resistance and Support respectively. With the recent bounce off the 100 day MA and the 200 day MA sitting right at .7000, the NZD is due for some significant price action. Using the 2009 highs and lows of the year, the Fibonacci Retrace level of 23.6% sits at .6994. It would seem that a close below the 200 day MA would have the Kiwi testing a .6800 handle. Should the Kiwi fall through that level .6600 could be the next potential target.

USDCHF:

The CHF has been trying to make its move against USD, but has run into consolidation between 1.0550 and 1.0650. Although the CHF did close below the 50 day MA, it did continue to fall until it struck trend line Resistance. The next round of price action will be particularly important. If price falls further it will have breached trend line Resistance and will then attempt to take out the 200 day MA just below 1.05. However, if we see a bounce off trend line Resistance it will turn price action into the Step pattern, whereby there are new higher high and higher lows. In which case we would expect the NZD to break above the prior high

GOLD:

Gold Prices may be headed lower. Looking at the daily Gold Chart below, we see Gold has been having a difficult time breaking free of the 100 and 50 day MA's. What we do have on the chart is a head and shoulders pattern. A break below the neckline and Gold may test the 200 day MA near midterm Support at 1,060.

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USDCHF:

The Swiss Franc continues to ride the 50 day Moving Average as it looks for direction. The 100 day MA is converging on the 200 day MA. If those two MA's cross it will signal further weakness for the CHF. When major moving averages cross there is usually a period of price consolidation as well as a retrace towards the averages. If price action fails to break across one of the major moving averages then the MA cross is likely to follow, with further price depreciation ahead.

NZDUSD:

The NZD is in a precarious position. It recently failed to pop above the 100 day Moving Average despite finding support at the 200 MA. However, the 50 day MA is about to cross below the 200 day MA, usually a signal of weakness ahead. If the cross happens, expect the NZD to test Support near .68.

USDJPY:

After crossing above the 200 day Moving Average last week the USD has managed to hold onto its gains. Price bounced off the 50% Fibonacci Retrace level generated from the 2009 high and low. The next point of Resistance sits at 93.50. A break above the Fibonacci 50% level as well as above the near term Resistance level and the JPY may be headed north to test 95.50.

bforex is a world leading foreign exchange broker established on an entrepreneurial vision to provide FX traders with simple and intuitive interaction with the Forex market. We are highly valued by our customers due to our expertise in providing traders with unrivalled execution speed, 24 hour assistance with professional analysts, tight spreads, superior exchange rates, commission free trading and an unrivalled trading platform.

 

I think USD now will be weaker....Se major pair will be storng against USD...

 

GOLD:

Gold has been trading with relatively low momentum recently. It has had a hard time staying above the 50 day and 100 day moving averages. A close above recent Resistance at 1,140, which represents the Head of the Head & Shoulders chart pattern we discussed 2 weeks ago, would give Gold a resurgence of momentum. However, if Gold fails to stay above the 100 day MA then we look for it to close below the 50 day MA, currently below 1,110.

OIL:

Oil has been trading in a range since October 2009. The high of the range had been 85 while the low was 71.95. The high of the range represents Resistance while the low of the range represents support. Oil has managed to keep above its 50 day Moving Average since February. More importantly Oil broke though Resistance and hit a high of 86.90. The 50 MA has been trading below the 100 MA, usually a pattern associated with falling prices. However, the moving averages are upwards sloping which indicates prices are moving up but at a slower speed. Now that price has accelerated, the 50 day MA is set to cross back above the 100 day MA which may mean even higher Oil prices ahead. Remember that moving averages are lagging indicators, but are still very telling as averages are no less important.

USDCAD:

The Canadian Dollar is making another attempt to overtake the U.S Dollar. The CAD, as we have mentioned several times is a commodity currency whose price is directly influenced by the price of Oil. The Canadian economy is a large exporter of Oil. If you, as a trader think in terms of correlations, the price action on these 2 products makes perfect sense. We have also mentioned that parity, or a Dollar for Dollar, acts as a point of Resistance for any pair. Therefore a close below parity is psychologically important as it states the market is ready to support this price level. The opposite is also true as an inability to close above parity indicates the market is not ready to support the current price level. For those that trade Support and Resistance this is a seemingly optimal time to get in as the CAD is floating above $1. We have drawn trend line Support and Resistance, expect that if the CAD can not close below parity that it may bounce between trend line Resistance and $1 until the market moves forward.

bforex is a world leading foreign exchange broker established on an entrepreneurial vision to provide FX traders with simple and intuitive interaction with the Forex market. We are highly valued by our customers due to our expertise in providing traders with unrivalled execution speed, 24 hour assistance with professional analysts, tight spreads, superior exchange rates, commission free trading and an unrivalled trading platform.

 

GBPUSD:

The GBP is still holding up quite well after finding Support at 1.43. Lows several times traded below 1.4250 but were always pushed back up. We are noticing a number of long wicked candles including 3 Doji's over the last 5 sessions. Both of these observation suggest a true lack of direction in the market. On the chart below we have added Bollinger Bands. The Bands widen as volatility stirs and narrow in calmer markets. When the bands narrow substantially it suggests an over consolidation in price which usually triggers a breakout. The Bands are narrowing because the GBP has been trading a tight range since mid May. The blue arrows points to the last narrowing of the bands in which was then followed by a big break out play.

USDCAD:

We are once again seeing volatility all over the market. Normally crosses of the 200 day moving average are significant occurrences and therefore become directionally significant. However the CAD has been hugging the 200 day MA for almost 2 weeks. Yesterday's price action closed below the 200 day MA. However, it is the 100 MA that has been acting as major Resistance. A close below the 100 day MA would be important as the major MA's still favor CAD appreciation. A close above 1.06 would be the first signal of a weakening CAD, however a close above 1.07 may trigger some short CAD entries while more major Support sits at 1.0850. A close above that handle coupled with a cross of the major MA's would all but seal the deal for the CAD bears to re-enter the market.

AUDUSD:

The AUD is still in recovery mode. On the chart below we have added Bollinger Bands to highlight the AUD's fall. We mentioned above that when the Bollinger Bands narrow (see blue arrows) we expect significant volatility to follow which causes the bands to widen significantly. The AUD has found Support at the .8100 handle. A close below that level and the AUD free fall will seemingly continue. However, the AUD could firm with a close above Resistance, just north of .8500. Note the major MA's favor falling prices, and with Bollinger Bands still so wide there is certainly more volatility ahead for this pair. The increased likelihood of a break over or under these levels increases in the short term when volatility levels are high as they are now.

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bforex is a world leading foreign exchange broker established on an entrepreneurial vision to provide FX traders with simple and intuitive interaction with the Forex market. We are highly valued by our customers due to our expertise in providing traders with unrivalled execution speed, 24 hour assistance, tight spreads, superior exchange rates, commission free trading and a cutting-edge trading platform.

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