Thoughts about trading.

[Ravique]

Yesterday went to the countryside, was sitting there in a house on the hill, drinking hot tea, looking at the river valley and thinking about different things.

So here is a question, what combined most of the succesfull and rich people? They came up with new ideas.

1).Einstein came up with his theories and became famous.
2).Henry Ford was the first man to develop automobiles and became rich.
3).Bill Gates came up with Windows and became world richest man.
4). And so on...

Of course you can say that there were a lot of people who followed theese ideas and became also rich , but :

1). Do you know some fisycist more famous than Einstein, or any of the one`s who followed his ideas? I think that they are famous only in the science world.
2). Many people made their fortunes on automobiles, but lookine at Ford`s time i think nobody had such a profit ( if to take those years $ ekvivalent to todays $ ) line as he did. And he is still known
3). The second computer software corp is Oracle , they own 16 billions $ to microsofts 40,5$

The difference is quite clear?

So what about trading? Isn`t trading the same?

The first person who came up with some trading style became a succesfull trader. The one whocame up with moving averages and their crossings wat sucsesfull. But then the MA`s came to the masses and they became not effective.

Steve Nissan came up with candlestick charts, and he wrote the manual on candlestick patterns, but now they don`t work so good that they have worked back then. Now he has written a book that is called bayond candlestick patterns, describing new candlestick formations, but personnaly I think that they will work for some years, until a large amount of traders start using them.

So it with all the famous trading styles. All the public and well known indicators.

If to take Williams Percent range. Williams using it made a 5000 account to 1050000 account, but who can do this now , using just this single indicator?

Of course famous indicators and trading styles are still effective in some way, but are they as effective as they were someday?

I don`t know the caouse of this , but i think that the more people are using some thing , thet less effective it get`s. maybe there is some kind of world order, that does not let a lot of people to get rich? Maybe the market addopts to the trading techniques many traders use?

What do you think?

Theese are just my thoughts. I am not trying to say something, or to moralise someone. I just trying to understand the nature.

[gazuz]

I think this is one of the reasons why the fxfisherman bot is not open for public. Just like the P2P sharing programs that were illegally sharing music got so populated that the RIAA took notice and now that one doesnt work, just like indicators they are becoming worthless because too many people used them. This time the RIAA is nature.

Just like they did in Germany a long time ago they printed MORE money, they printed so much that money was worth less than wood so they burned bills in their stove instead of wood.

I think that would be the best analogy or if you gave so much money to the poor that they rise over the working class so that they are considered as upper class and the working class known as "Poor".

When you said "Maybe the market addopts to the trading techniques many traders use?" I think yes it does, think about it this way its survival of the fittest. Actually its survival of the fastest. Take EUR/USD for example, if everyone saw the same signal and bought, the price would shoot up and each person would eventually get on the wagon so as the price rises, people keep buying, and eventually it will peak out and everyone would sell. Obviously this is would mess up the indicators since most of them use past signals.

I'm not sure if I'm making myself clear but if something is used by 95% of traders it will ruin the indicator and make it useless as there is no more diversity in trading therefore all following the same path then crashing.

And that is what I think, forex works with diversity, if none was existent then the forex would not be natural anymore and just be repeating waves going up and down and up and down. If that ever happened im sure smart traders would try to predict when it tops out and sell and when it touches the bottom then buy.

[zztop]

BAND PASS INDI any one?

[jebigabre]

I agree with your thoughts and sometimes have thought about it in a similar way. I think what it shows is that to be successful in anything, business, trading, whatever... you have to be different and think different from the crowd.

I had this theory that the next great trading system will be nothing about confusing numbers, technicals, indicators etc...but the mind. Kind of like rules based on psychology or something. I reckon who ever thinks of this will revolutionize trading.