Dollar under continuing pressure

[scorpion]

1 GBP is now worth more than 2 USD again. So how long do you think this weakening dollar is going to last? How do you detect the turning point when USD gets back on its feet?

Read this news by BBC:
BBC NEWS | Business | Dollar under continuing pressure

[Libros]

Do you have any idea why dollar is weakening?



i think it will go to 2.04xx and turn when it reach 2.05xx.
i've know it when it reach near 2.xxx two weeks before and not trade this bcs of fear, in that time the chart show reversal. and hitting stop later if i trade on that time. but, it was burn up again is it stop hunt?
so i miss the chance.

[scorpion]

What surprises me the most is USDJPY is still above 120. Isn't US dollar now at the weakest? USDJPY should be 103 by now not 122. Is BoJ behind all these attempts to peg its yen with dollar.

[Libros]

is it by central bank or speculator?

[exni]

Originally Posted by Libros

Do you have any idea why dollar is weakening?



i think it will go to 2.04xx and turn when it reach 2.05xx.
i've know it when it reach near 2.xxx two weeks before and not trade this bcs of fear, in that time the chart show reversal. and hitting stop later if i trade on that time. but, it was burn up again is it stop hunt?
so i miss the chance.

Libros, there s no chance in trading....build your own trading system and trade according to it, leave chance and hope to casino and god worshipping-
same for fear : your tradin system will remove fear from the "trigger pulling" process >> to achieve this u also need to work on your psychological profile : what triggers fear in you? try and answer this and you ll see some improvement.
finally, dont try and guess : noone can, if they say they can it is just abundant lie. whenever you try and guess you are just trading with a random system which is the worst you can do in trading -- the aim is to go from a random system (50/50) to a higher probability system. Best system may achieve 60 or 80, but then you have something else : you could have a low prob system that will give you high reward : like you got it Wrong 4 out of 5, which is very low (20% win) but once you got it right you make a killing and succeed in catching the big one....

cheers

exni

[exni]

-- WHY IS THE US$ WEAKENING ?? --

this is THE question -- and the answer is also the trigger the mutation we are going to experience.

answering this would take few hours and lot of energy to read, and i hope other forex or cdty trader could hop on and debate--

here s my view :

on a large scale : empire last through secular cycles....we need economical history here, but that s a fact and i wont amplify on this...too large a topic.

if we reduce our TF, which means macro analysis : still a bit of history is required >>
1-back to bretton-woods where US took the lead of its own demise erasing gold (real money) from eco fundamentals, thus they took the lead and made their currency the world reserve, and other eco powers let them do, ....whatever....

2-then comes OIL, the dollar is linked to OIL reserves....we dont know what the real reserves are, BUT as we see the dollar falling we can have a rough guess of where they are standing!

3-Credit policy or the premises of Asset economy : the US shifted from a capital eco to an asset eco : this creates the famous series of bubbles, that you guys know ... those bubbles burst (tech, bonds, RE....) since it is the natural way to go! sky is not the limit and there s no fre lunch, thus the US inject massive liquidity into the worldwide economy!! and other powers do the same or the dollar would be down the drain for a long time .... see russia with 54% of liquidity injection! also see US removing M3 quotation so noone can see their perverted little game.

4-other things come into play like trade deficit, TIC (treasury inflow of capital), budget deficit, fed deficit...bla bla bla : this is directly influencing foreign investors in the way they perceive the US dollar ... this why US gov is faking, spinning and painting statistical figures, this is also why all news you are trying to trade are just Noise >> the Dollar will not come back to any level that could sustain US growth ... am talking about healthy growth, not the kind fo growth we have now : war economy, market manipulations, and massive liquidity injection! one thing you may ask : but why are the US equity markets still rising.... good one >> the TIC thingy i was telling you about is the reason! : you probably have heard about the ESF (exchange stabilisation funds) which is lead by big institutional traders, the US treasury...yes!...and Central banks ; so this is the money flowing into the US from foreigners : if the Equities drop, the TIC is DEAD, if the TIC is dead the US$ is OVER >> in such occurence, you would see Interest rates going to the sky, Real Estate plunging, consumers ability to borrow to sustain the economy would disappear, and the rest i dont want to say.

5- and WORST : derivatives ( US private and public debt is to level never seen in human history and they have part of this debt on derivatives OTC markets ) and hedge funds : i guess those will be the trigger - you heard the Bear Stearn hedge funds bailing out problem two weeks ago....this is a Sigma 10 ! .... the trigger : Billions of dollars being thrown at the market without ANYONE to pick it up : welcome Euro at 1.70!

hope i kept it short enough
.....next post for the Yen
hope that helped

exni

[exni]

Originally Posted by Libros

is it by central bank or speculator?

both are on it !! )) usually one against the other....CBs dont care about when or how, they just step in whenever they feel like it .... specs (big ones) try and find CBs failure, like macro distortion and arbitrage....but they are always interacting.

cheers

exni

[exni]

Originally Posted by scorpion

What surprises me the most is USDJPY is still above 120. Isn't US dollar now at the weakest? USDJPY should be 103 by now not 122. Is BoJ behind all these attempts to peg its yen with dollar.

Hedge funds are involved in the yen carry trade where billions have been poured on US money markets after japanese chests have been cleaned ))
when, and not if, the markets really feel the US$ has some unbeatable headwind then you will start to see few of those hedge funds on the redeem side which will trigger a panic sell on US MM.... that s when US interest rates will soar as the yen index...that is also when few people will turn millionaire in a few days ... the problem is the following : Japanese are the most involved in the yen carry trade, as you know Japan is one of the biggest consumer when it comes to US trasuries...Iran is also talking about pricing oil in Yen!
that could be hot! there are many other things implied as well....like inflation in china that could trigger an asian interest rate party.... it s all in rate differential and how markets perceive this....

exni

[Libros]

Originally Posted by exni

Libros, there s no chance in trading....build your own trading system and trade according to it, leave chance and hope to casino and god worshipping-
same for fear : your tradin system will remove fear from the "trigger pulling" process >> to achieve this u also need to work on your psychological profile : what triggers fear in you? try and answer this and you ll see some improvement.
finally, dont try and guess : noone can, if they say they can it is just abundant lie. whenever you try and guess you are just trading with a random system which is the worst you can do in trading -- the aim is to go from a random system (50/50) to a higher probability system. Best system may achieve 60 or 80, but then you have something else : you could have a low prob system that will give you high reward : like you got it Wrong 4 out of 5, which is very low (20% win) but once you got it right you make a killing and succeed in catching the big one....

cheers

exni

i'm fear bcs of reversal pattern that like to showing.
so not discipline sometimes getting right sometimes wrong.
so when i get that what i do is stay calm.
it's just newbie problem

[Libros]

wao exni,
your fundamental analysis looking so good.

are you big trader?