MP -- This And That About S + R
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hey
I post continuously on the subject of "repainting" because even I once put it down as being a useless situation --- that is, until I learned whats going on ! I use a number of "predictive" s + r signals on my charts, using "support AND resistance" and "zig zag pointer, which are my base indicators. Added to that are "silverlining", "supersignals", "trendsignals", HDR Projections and two forms of "price channels !" Please understand that almost all of these signals "repaint" simply because support and resistance is a DYNAMIC force for the daytrader, based on momentum, speed of price movement, overall strength AFTER the normal daily reversal points (normally, prices reverse in the US mkt between 11:30am, est and noon --- on thurs, prices retraced "slightly" and continued until 2pm, est, because of tremendous momentum on the USD currencies, putting a lie to the "usual" noon reversal !) But under "normal" usage, the zig zags and various s + r indicators will suddenly appear on a timeframe --- the NORMAL drill is to now read the arrow's price to see if there is more upside left in the move (which there usually is by a few pips) and one takes profit at whatever that arrow reads NOT when the arrow appears, unless both price and reading coincide ! next to happen will be another arrow, created by ONE or A FEW of the indicators named above and this is showing the NEW PRICE that will be reached once the price sells off from the tp price. This "selloff" (or buying at a lower dip price indicated by price dropping VERY slightly and then bouncing back up) WILL NOW GO TO THE NEXT HIGHEST RESISTANCE AREA that has been "repainted". and so it goes, each indicator repainting itself until they reach a topside, understood to be where the higher timeframes DO NOT show the same resistance area as the lower. (other words, if the 5 min shows a top of 1.9999 and the 15 or one hour only show 1.9975, you can pretty much bet the later figure is gonna be the high on this particular move. You can choose whether to play EACH dip and the new move upside as a scalper, or sit back and wait for the currency to top at its "repainted" top or use the price channels to get an even better idea ! Now, each timeframe tends to behave differently --- on the one and 5 minute, the "dip" tends to take only a few minutes, while "generally" on the 15 minute chart and above, one must wait MUCH longer for the currency to dip and then make for the NEW higher price ! (on the one hour or four hour, one had best take in a good movie, either preceeded or followed by a great dinner with a very attentive member of the opposite sex (if that be your normal choice !) and come back MANY hours later, like tomorrow ! The doing is easier than the reading, so if one puts this stuff on a chart and observes. after a period of time it becomes pretty apparent ! One trick thats been happening lately on GU is that the zig zag stops, the zig zag pointer says EXIT (at the point it reads with your cursor) and another arrow pops up ---- the currency begins to retrace, as expected, BUT STOPS AND BOUNCES BACK UP TO FORM A DBL TOP ! This retrace often happens at about 12% on the Fibs, BUT CAN GO TO 23% which usually happens in a "spike", so one has to be watching or best have their "tp" already set. LET US ASSUME your original trade IS A LONG TRADE and you go SHORT at the tp point shown by zigzags so your choices are now to take profit on the small move down to the 12%, instigate a LONG trade heading towards the original tp point, and then SHORT your trade once that top point is hit, or you could simply HOLD your original SHORT, counter with a LONG as the price moves up, and then fall back on your existant SHORT once the market TRULY reverses ! The brokers WAIT to do the TRUE reversal which then USUALLY HAPPENS AT THE NORMAL MARKET REVERSAL POINTS, which would be 10 am est, noon, 5pm est, 10 pm est -- that sort of thing. If you are holding for the longest swing position, most of this is useless, as one simply goes by the daily and weekly charts USING "price channels" and "i-DRPrjections" and with more than a glance towards the monthlies. IMO, if trading this way, one ignores most indicators except MACD and a few trusted MA crosses, as most (but not all) indicators are of little use. I shall grant you that the above is mostly for daytrading scalpers and flippers, but can also be easily used by "swing" traders although you will be giving away some pips, which may not matter much if one is holding for a longer period of time. For more exact timing of longer held trades, where one is looking for a more "static" s + r, turning to the i-DRProjections will give one a very decent idea of tops, and nothing will confirm like "price channels !" So please understand what the s+r indicators that "repaint" are doing --- theyre simply "dynamic" s + r points and as such are designed for the daytrader --- there are better weapons in the arsenal for the "buy and hold" group ! Lets take a wee look at the pix ive attached ---- the 5 minute shows a red "zigzag pointer which reads 1.4730, which agreed with price channels and "calculation for future day" indicators, and the price dropped to its next set of arrows below. Ignoring for a second whether the price will drop further, the orange arrow at 1.4734 sits there, waiting for the new upside move, which we then go on to the longer timeframes to verify. The ONE HOUR CHART shows THREE arrows, at 4730 (already taken out, but most likely to be hit again), the orange 1.4734 which we see on the 5 minute, which becomes confirmation of that move going to happen, AND ANOTHER, that little blue thing at 1.4737, which hasnt shown yet (if ever) on the 5 minute ! Checking the DAILY CHART, what to our wonder - - - - - - - - 1.4743 is showing on the little blue thingie AND the purple price channel is dropping, heading to reinforce the s+r at 1.4750 or perhaps set up its own resistance at 1.4770. Above that line, note the blue Bols is MOVING UP, giving creedance to higher prices ahead, and shifting over to the left of the chart, one sees a mass of white arrows (those are my pointers, duhhhhh) pointing to upside moves to 1.4854 and 1.4966. a few months ago, I stated that from historical perspective, this currency (not the only one obviously) will move up to that area after xmas, and presently it appears to want to do right by me --- only problem with this one is the interest rate is negative if one is long, so watch for peoples running for the doors at the 5pm rollover period ! HOW it gets there I cant tell at the moment, since it could easily turn down and then come back up higher and stronger, but anyone looking LONG at EURUSD is probably not looking in the wrong direction !! enjoy and trade well a humble trader, teacher, all around good guy and lover of pastrami sandwiches ! mp [quote=scorpion;3427] I've been playing with Barry's Support and Resistance, but only to find out that the indicator repaints the past 3 bars. When an indicator repaints the past, it will look so good on chart, but in fact it's totally different in real-time. If you've been fooled by ZigZag indicator, you'll know what I mean. But anyway, let's give a cool "Multiple Personalities" to the indicator that repaints the past. One more thing about Barry's SR is that it is highly volatile (changes value too often). Support and resistance lines are supposed to be low volatile, right? Because of its high volatility, Barry's SR just allows too many false breakouts; too many that it shouldn't be called Support and Resistance.
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Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages ! As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !! Last edited by mp6140 : 12-29-2007 at 06:12 PM. |
SuperSR7
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Thanks Scorpion...
Your superSR7 indicator is a work of art. I had given up on s/r points which is what type trader I was when I first started forex but this indicator of your is simply amazing. I have been working with it on larger time frames other than 30min for GbpJpy. I seem to like the 4hr and daily. Anyway, just wanted to say thanks... Titan |
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did a comparison between the differing s + r indicators and find "super s+r" to be a "long term" indicator that WOULD work best on the longer timeframes as you mention,including the daily because it measures the TOPMOST RESISTANCE level and the BOTTOMOST SUPPORT level that is "probable" for that currency.
While that is very handy for the swing trader, my concerns are that one can wait a number of days for the conclusion of the trade AND THEREFORE SHOULD BE VERY CAREFUL ABOUT DRAWDOWNS --- simply plan for the fact that you will see them ! (I'm NOT against drawdowns in trading, just pointing out that you WILL see them with this system because of the number of days one waits for conclusion of a trade !) the OTHER s+r indicators are supplying information better suited to daytraders, and do a VERY good job for that activity which , as a trading sysem, pretty much eliminates ANY drawdowns, as one is simply trading from close by support and resitance areas to other close by areas ! I scalp, flip and hold so both ALL of the s + r indicators work nicely for the methods I'm using and dovetails nicely with my use of the LRC because "super s+r" is taking its top point from the currencies Linear Regression Channel, as it does with its bottom points, which is invariably the most reliable indicator around --- just HOW long it takes to get there is the question, not WHETHER it will get there !, which is why I warn ! interesting indicator, but for newbs --- OBEY MONEY MANAGEMENT RULES COMPLETELY (ESPECIALLY on the longer timeframes !) because there WILL BE DRAWDOWNS ! (there will also be those on the shorter timeframes, but theyre usually gentler !) enjoy and trade well mp Quote:
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Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages ! As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !! Last edited by mp6140 : 01-04-2008 at 12:24 AM. |
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Quote:
__________________
Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages ! As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence -- BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !! Last edited by mp6140 : 01-05-2008 at 12:47 AM. |
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Last edited by bossxero : 03-28-2008 at 09:49 PM. |
mchill
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Hello everyone. I am new at FXFisherman. I am also a newbie at Forex. I do have some 17 years experience in commodities.
Hope to learn from you and maybe bring along some of my knowledge from commodities, shareing with you and hopefully it will be a good experience for all. I warn you! I am not a computer programmer. I have some knowledge of patterns that I hope will work well in forex. mchill |
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