EUR/USD Aug 11th European Open
  #1961 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 08:32 AM
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Default EUR/USD Aug 11th European Open

Split-screen again. On the right we have 2 charts with BAJA bearish divergence upon end of the 06:30 candle period.

Bottom chart utilizes PSQ9 and white fibs. 2 peaks at 02:00 and 06:30 were at the 61.8% and 50% fibs. We had already posted the quick short on the 02:00 peak.

Upper right chart has white 23.6 and 38.2 fibs at the 2 peaks.

Left chart is a 5-min with session colors. Fib plot was Low = 22:55 1.41215 and High = 18:25 1.42371.

07:00 European open rose to the 127.2 extension of 1.42683. Price declined to the 88.6 fib of 1.42239. Looking to left, we see previous support at this price level.

Notice indicator Money Flow Index (MFI), which is based on volume and displayed similar to RSI. Since we set RSI to 4-period (fast), it tend to display similar movement as price.

After price stopped at the 88.6 fib, we can see the divergence between the RSI(4) and MFI. Although this is on the 5-min chart, it does tell us not to get too excited with the subsequent bounce up yet.

***

European stocks up. S&P reaffirms France's AAA rating. Major French bank denied rumors of possibly requiring a bailout, or something to that effect.
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File Type: jpg EUR-USD Aug 11th European.JPG (184.0 KB, 6 views)
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Xau_usd
  #1962 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 08:46 AM
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Default Xau_usd

Gold CFD XAU_USD making move to upside, breaking trend line.

Indicator TD Lines v1.00 also displays comments in upper left corner of chart, and take-profit targets and calculations.
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File Type: jpg XAU_USD Aug 11th.JPG (123.8 KB, 9 views)
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  #1963 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 08:55 AM
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Switzerland's central bank, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is reportedly considering pegging their currency to the Euro.

Although it sounds like a long-shot it will now be in the minds of traders. Isn't this supposed to be manipulation, per finger pointers at China?

Swiss Franc Falls as SNB Sees Possible Euro Peg - Bloomberg

Attached is USD/CHF chart.
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File Type: jpg USD-CHF Aug 11th.JPG (165.1 KB, 3 views)
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Last edited by fxbaja; 08-11-2011 at 08:58 AM. Reason: chart
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CHF Pairs
  #1964 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 09:35 AM
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Default CHF Pairs

Split-screen with USD/CHF and EUR/CHF on bottom, both rising in reaction to rumors of a possible future CHF peg to the Euro.

The chart on the top is EUR/USD, which is being pulled in both directions due to the CHF crosses.

This is an example of cross currency pair correlation.
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US30 (mimics DOW Jones 30 Futures)
  #1965 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 10:20 AM
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Default US30 (mimics DOW Jones 30 Futures)

Here is a 1-hour on US30 where we have blue fib extension and the yellow horizontal marking the QE2 start price on Nov 12th, 2010 of 11,260. Orange lines are fibo fan rays.

Aug 8th 22:00 was a top right at the yellow resistance line, as well as the 61.8 fibo fan. This top also clearly had BAJA bearish divergence.

The next major pivot during the Aug 10th 19:00 period had BAJA bullish divergence.

Currently, just about 3 hours ahead of the U.S. session open, we are seeing selling pressure to 10,800.

***

The GER30, which tries to mimic the German DAX, had gapped up at 06:00, but now has erased gains and testing yesterday's lows.

Run on European banks had spread to U.S. banks, a sector that is already struggling. Bank of America is now trading in the $6 range.

Japan's economic collapse 2 decades ago also had a refusal by the government to allow some banks to fail. They also did not write down the bad loans. History characterizes that as the "Lost Decade".
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US Session
  #1966 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 04:54 PM
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Default US Session

1st chart is updated EUR/USD. We drew a vertical yellow line to highlight price divergence with both the RSI(4) and MFI.

The 2nd peak was also mentioned as a SELL based on BAJA bearish divergence. Price made it back to the 138.2 of 1.41166, which had been previous support. Nice swing back to resistance, day trader's market movement.



2nd chart is a split-screen update on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF.

On the left is USD/CHF extending to the 161.8 fib of .76800.
Plot was : High = .74457 Low = .70666.

This is gain from .73801 and +300 pips from our last post.

EUR/CHF on the right required repositioning of fibo fan's low to 11:30 1.04288.

ABC plot: A = 23:00 low 1.02543 B = 08:30 high 1.05512 C = 11:30 low 1.04288

Price hit the FE 161.8 ( 1.09240) at 14:00) where it was intersected by the fan's 88.6 ray. That's a gain of +400 pips from our last post.

***

Both pairs made significant pullbacks during U.S. USD/CHF to its 127.2 and Mars 180 and Moon 0-degree. EUR/CHF back down to the FE 100 level.

***

Major U.S. indices on positive ground thus far.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg EUR-USD Aug 11th.JPG (129.6 KB, 3 views)
File Type: jpg CHF Pairs Aug 11th.JPG (176.1 KB, 5 views)
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XAU_USD Aug 11th
  #1967 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 05:37 PM
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Default XAU_USD Aug 11th

Decline in gold and related products attributed to risk-on mode today, with money flowing back into equity markets globally. It is also affected by an increase margin requirements at the CME.

Attached 30-min XAU_USD illustrates this week's movement, starting with the gap up at open.

Fib plot uses Aug 8th Euro session range:Low = 1719.61 and High = 1779.80

Price made it near the 161.8 extension of 1817 prior to falling back down to the current 50% fib level of 1750.

Were there any clues ahead of this decline? Of course there were, and we have been speaking about it. Divergence at the top registered by RSI(4) MFI, and even the EFT.
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File Type: jpg XAU-USD to Aug 11th.JPG (151.6 KB, 6 views)
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US30 in US Session
  #1968 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 06:10 PM
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Default US30 in US Session

Here is the CFD for gold, XAU_USD. After the 2 BAJA divergence formations on the 1-hour, we zoom in on the 30-min.

The U.S. data Jobless claims came in lower (positive) than projected at 12:30, which prompted a thrust up in equity indices.

High = 06:30 10,972 Low = 11:30 10,614.

138.2 extension = 11,109 (hit during 16:30 period)

This is the same level as the 78.6 from wider plot (not shown):

Low = Aug 9th 02:00 10,444 High = Aug 9th 22:00 11,294
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  #1969 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 06:49 PM
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thanks a lot,,,, a good picture ,on my needy gold , thanks again
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  #1970 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2011, 07:47 PM
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You're always welcomed james.

Lurking shorts at this level on Dow 30 and US30.
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