July 7th EUR/USD
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July 7th breakout of U.S. low.
A = 17:30 high 1.2646 B = 19:25 low 1.2612 C = 21:40 high 1.2634 U.S. Low = 1.2612 FE 100 = 1.2599 FE 127 = 1.2590 FE 161.8 = 1.2578 (Target) Hit 04:15 Hit at/near target at 04:15, after many hours of consolidation. ----------------------------------------------- July 7th breakout of Asian Low This actually turned out to be the finish of the previous extension, hitting the 236.2 fib. A = 06:20 high 1.2601 B = 07:35 low 1.2567 C = 07:50 high 1.2590 Asian Low = 1.2567 FE 100 = 1.2556 (hit) FE 127 = 1.2536 FE 161.8 = 1.2511 (target) not reached This trade opportunity either has take profit at/near the FE 100 or break-even (moved stop-loss). ------------------------------------------------ July 7th breakout of Asian high. A = 12:15 low 1.2562 B = 13:40 high 1.2610 C = 13:50 low 1.2595 Asian High = 1.2624 FE 100 = 1.2643 (Target) FE 127 = 1.2655 FE 161.8 = 1.2673 Entry Offered = 14:35 opening candle price of 1.2629 + spread = 1.2632 Stop-loss just below 14:20 pivot 1.2613 – cushion = 1.2611 Risk = 21 pips Reward = 11 pips This is a pass due to poor of risk/reward ratio. Extension did hit the FE 100 during 14:50 candle. |
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Thanks in advance. |
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The Ichimoku Indicator Alternative Ichimoku – Setup, Examples of Usage - MQL4 Articles Also in MT4 terminal, MetaEditor or go to: MQL4 Code Base: custom indicators for MT4 Should have most indicators. Otherwise google. Sometimes, it's in the formula or directs one to web site. |
July 8th EUR/USD BReakout of Asian High
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We need to look at the 15-min chart, using the Heiken Ashi candles to ascertain the ABC swings.
A = 10:20 low 1.2642 B = 12:00 high 1.2677 C = 12:15 low 1.2655 Asian High = 1.2687 FE 100 = 1.2690 FE 127 = 1.2699 (hit) FE 161.8 = 1.2712 (target) Large distance between Point B and Asian high, 13 pips including spread. Stop-loss = just below 13:10 candle low of 1.2675 + cushion = 1.2673 Entry = 13:35 1.2688 + spread = 1.2691 Take Profit Target = 1.2712 - spread and cushion = 1.2708 Risk = 18 pips Reward = 17 pips Once extension moves pass the FE 100, we move the stop-loss (S/L) to at least break-even or just below the FE 100. In this case S/L was moved just below the FE 100 at 1.2688. Extension only reached the FE 127, but failed to confirm above. This means it failed to close a 5-min candle above that price level. If it did, we would move our stop-loss to just below that FE 127 price. End result is a small loss of 3 pips, if trade taken. The pair eventually hit the FE 161.8, but after a large retrace to below Point C, which would have stopped us out. ---- Note: To set our retrace fibs to make sure Point C is correctly plotted: Low = 10:20 1.2642 High = 12:00 1.2655 This was Point A to Point B. You'll see on the 5-min, a slight probe below our Point C price used (1.2655). We stayed with 1.2655 as Point C because that is the 61.8% retrace price of A-B. |
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The freedom bars simply show 4 time frames in red or blue denoting down or up trend. This technique is based on Fibonacci ratios, using thrust from breakout of previous session (mainly breakout of Asian). Having too many technical indicators on your charts is not a good idea. |
July 9th EUR/USD BReakout of Asian Low
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July 9th Breakout of Asian Low
A = 06:45 high 1.2722 B = 07:40 low 1.2687 C = 08:20 high 1.2708 Asian Low = 1.2674 Entry SELL 09:05 = 1.2667 Stop-Loss Options (add spread): - Just above 09:50 pivot 1.2686, which was also the FE 61.8 + spread and cushion= 1.2690 (Risk = 23 pips) - Just above 08:40 pivot 1.2694 + spread and cushion = 1.2698 (Risk = 32 pips) - Just above Point C 1.2708 + spread and cushion = 1.2712 (Risk = 45 pips) Take Profit Targets (add spread) FE 100 = 1.2672 FE 127 = 1.2662 FE 161.8 = 1.2649 + spread and cushion = 1.2653 (target) hit Risk = 23 Reward = 14 This was a Move-In-Progress or Extension-In-Progress. Distance of B from Asian low lost 13 pips. If one trades this breakout based on a 15/15 pip strategy, it was a winner if took profit at +14 pips. The ABCD technique and projections guided on exit. The 2nd ABC: A =08:20 high 1.2708 B = 09:00 low 1.2661 C = 11:25 high 1.2683 FE 100 = 1.2636 FE 127 = 1.2623 FE 161.8 = 1.2607 (hit) Cheers and have a good weekend. |
July 12th Breakout of Asian Low
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July 12th Breakout of Asian Low
Attached chart is 5-min, swings easier to see/understand on 15-min. A = 05:55 high 1.2605 B = 07:30 low 1.2565 C = 08:40 high 1.2589 (61.8% retrace of A-B) Asian Low = 1.2565 (same as B) FE 100 = 1.2549 (hit) FE 127 = 1.2538 FE 161.8 = 1.2524 (target) Fibo Fan: 00:10 high 1.2645 02:00 low 1.2587 If Fibo Fan pulled on 15-min chart, and then flipped to 5-min, we can see resistance points provided by 78.6% fib. It was choppy on the way down, with extension only reaching the FE 100. As each pivot formed on the 5-min, we can move our stop-loss. Therefore, since we targeted the FE 161.8, this trade was break-even or a small loss. This was a Move-In-Progress, extension from larger ABC: A = 00:10 high 1.2645 B = 02:00 low 1.2587 C = 04:10 high 1.2609 FE 100 = 1.2550 (hit) |
July 13th Breakout of Asian High
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EUR/USD 5-min Chart:
A = 09:00 low 1.2530 B = 10:05 high 1.2595 C = 12:30 low 1.2564 Asian High = 1.2614 FE 100 = 1.2629 FE 127 = 1.2647 FE 161.8 = 1.2669 (hit) Since Point B was quite a distance from the Asian High (19 pips + spread), and target is the FE 100 (based on our rules), we did not like the risk/reward of this trade scenario. Fortunately it pivoted again after breach of Asian High. A = 12:30 low 1.2564 B = 13:10 high 1.2634 C = 13:20 low 1.2623 FE 100 = 1.2693 (target) FE 127 = 1.2711 FE 161.8 = 1.2736 (hit) Entry 13:40 open 1.2636 + spread = 1.2639 Stop-loss Options: Below Point C of 1.2623 - cushion = 1.2621 Below Asian High Below first ABC's FE 61.8 fib Risk = 18 pips Reward = 53 pips Will post chart next time, as can't seem to get it to work at the moment. Cheers Last edited by fxbaja; 07-14-2010 at 06:46 AM. Reason: add chart |
July 14th Breakout of Asian High
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After EUR/USD breakout on July 13th, pair went into consolidation for nearly 3 sessions.
We used the 15-min chart to ascertain the ABC swings. The quick probe (candle wick) at 13:10 to 1.2682 was probably not recognized by most broker's trading platform. Therefore, we utilized Point C as per below, which was established twice. A = 14:40 low 1.2658 B = 20:35 high 1.2737 C = 07:15 low 1.2690 Asian high = 1.2734 FE 100 = 1.2770 (hit) Entry = 15:05 at 1.2749 + spread = 1.2752 as breakout candle on 5-min chart quite large (fast). Stop-loss options include: - Just below Asian High of 1.2734 - Just below 1-min pivot of 1.2725 - Just below Point C pivot of 1.2702 - Just below 23.6% retrace fib of A-B price 1.2718 - Just below 38.2% retrace fib of A-B price 1.2707 If 1-min pivot was used for S/L. The loss of pips due to large breakout candle resulted in our entry rule dismissing this trade due to poor risk/reward. Risk = 27 pips Reward = 17 pips Alternatively, if S/L was based on Asian high: Risk = 19 pips Reward = 17 pips. This plot was unusual, and probably not covered before in this thread. There was also a tighter ABC pull. See the 5-min chart and plot most recent swings before breakout. The target would have been the FE 161.8 price of 1.2757. Its Point B (1.2716) was very far (18 pips) from Asian high. Another reason we did not like the tighter pull was due to highs above the Point C, which were established during the same session. Last edited by fxbaja; 07-16-2010 at 08:55 PM. |
July 15th Breakout of Asina High
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EUR/USD 15-min Chart.
A = July 14th 07:15 low 1.2690 B = July 14th 15:45 high 1.2777 C = July 15th 00:45 low 1.2708 (78.2% retrace of A-B) Asian High = 1.2763 (notice Point B is higher) Entry 1.2789 (open of 08:50 candle) FE 100 = 1.2795 FE 127 = 1.2818 FE 161.8 = 1.2849 Stop-Loss: - just below 5-min pivot 1.2762 (almost same as Asian High) Due to low reward, based on entry rule, must target more than the FE 100, or pass on this trade using this entry rule. The use of a higher Point B negated the better reward offered with entry on breach of Asian High. This is the price we pay for being more conservative, as extension could have retreated/bounced off of that price level. A 15/15 pip strategy was a winner. Note: again we omit that quick probe to 1.2682 (for Point C). |
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