EUR/USD traded in tight range ahead of the European session.
Traders jockeyed for position at European open, and ahead of 08:30 Spanish and 09:00 French debt auction. The rise in EUR/USD early session may have been at least partially attributed to the positive Spanish bond trading "at that particular moment".
Attached is EUR/USD 30-min with session colors and MML. Fib plotted off yesterday's European Low/high of 1.3057/1.3136.
Today's early Euro session rise touched the 138.2% extension during the 08:30 period. Thereafter, landscape was littered with data through 14:30.
Double bottom included long-legged Doji, or Hammer on the 11:30 candle.
The tighter fib plot (not shown) uses Asian Low 1.3104 and Euro High 1.3165. This produced 161.8% to downside = 1.3067, which was the 11:30 pivot low.
On the 1-hour, 12:00 candle was a long-legged Doji.
Negative U.S Jobless data at 12:30 propelled rise (hitting the 7/8th MML), and negative European Confidence at 14:00 drove pair to retrace to current European session closing.
Tight window between 13:00 - 14:00 for the day trader with small S/L, while avoiding data release.
Here is GBP/USD 1-hour chart from a couple of days ago. We have the HAMA_T3 candles and SQ9(Price) with StartPrice = 1.58179.
The StartPrice Low of 1.58179 was also support on Apr 5th and 10th.
"Directional" fib plot: Low = 1.58179 High = 1.59098
Price retraced 50% ahead of Apr 17th 08:30 GBP data. Positive data result drove price upward from the HAM_T3.
We drew red horizontal lines at previous resistance peaks
Apr 12th 17:00 1.59841 (stop-loss option)
Apr 13th 11:00 1.59655 (same level as 161.8% extension)
This is a set-up awaiting hit to the 161.8% extension level of 1.59666, which where the last resistance resides.
S/L just above the Apr 12th resistance = risk about 20 pips
TP target to top of HAMA_T3 candles, which is near the High of fib plot.
The T3 was rising and price touched at close of the 13:00 candle and price of 1.5922. Reward about 40 net pips.
R/R 40/20 and 2:1
Note that after the 08:30 GBP data, there was Euro data at 09:00. The cross-pair correlation from EUR/GBP and EUR/USD resulted in this pair going sideways prior to retrace.
Foregoing a 09:00 entry (avoiding data), did not exempt trade, as a revisit to the 161.8 occurred during the 10:30 period.
As long as we keep an eye on the R/R, we can determine whether to pass or wait for a better entry.
Using a fib plot based on the same Low, and High = 1.59841 (Apr 12th peak) not shown here,
we saw a 161.8 extension to the SQ9 180-degree level. Breakout trade from High to 161.8 area = about 100 gross pips.
Last edited by fxbaja; 04-20-2012 at 05:26 AM.
Showcased is USD/CAD 30-min, with HAM_T3 and MurreyMath1.0 (MML).
Fib plot Apr 16th/17th High = 1.00315 Low = .98637.
On Apr 19th, price made a 61.8% retrace to the 5/8th MML. Pair went into consolidation ahead of today's 12:30 CAD data, which included CPI.
When we zoom in, we can see the 08:00 first thrust below the T3 candles. Price hit support at the 3/8th MML, and bounced back up and into the T3.
This sets up the breakout of .9933 support at that pivot off the 3/8th MML. This occurred during the 10:00 period. The yellow horizontal line also represents point of breakout.
Retrace fib plot: Low = .98790 High = .99625.
We know to exit prior to the 12:30 data, and target options include the MML and retrace fib levels.
Looking left, we can see previous consolidation between the 1/8th MML of .9903 and the 61.8 fib of .9911. This would be the Exit Zone.
S/L = .9952 (above 10:00 T3 and 4/8th MML)
Entry = .9932
TP = .9908 (hit during 12:00 period)
R/R = 24/20 and ratio of 1.2:1
As time got closer to the 12:30 data, the risk increase for a sudden pop up. It is reasoned that traders, like you, are exiting and moving to the sidelines. Therefore, tightening your S/L would be prudent.
A pop up is exactly what happened during the 12:30 candle period.
Visually we can immediate see, during the set-up phase, that we have a scenario with one MML level for the S/L and 2 MML levels for the TP.
This is a gross R/R of 2:1. However, after factoring spread and cushion, it was reduced.
This example gives a good visual of trend and S&R.
Here is a split-screen on EUR/USD. On the left we have 30-min session colors and fib plot based on yesterday's European High/Low. The High is the same as today's Asian High.
This is an example of a breakout of the Asian High. With 08:00 & 08:30 data, we cannot enter at that first probe. Waiting for the next breach did pay off, as seen on the 09:30 candle.
Chart on the left shows HAMA_T3 providing trend and trailing S/L option.
S/L options include 09:00 pivot low 1.3147 + cushion.
TP at +1/8th 1.3214 or the 161.8% extension 1.32243, less cushion.
TP = 1.3210
S/L = 1.3145
Net R/R = 40/25 and ratio 1.6:1
USD/CAD Bullish Butterfly 1-Hour Apr 17th
Using the indicator Zup_V86, we see a Bullish Butterfly pattern trigger on April 17th.
The attached 1-hour chart also has a picture of the ideal pattern. Guru Carney believes ideally Point B must be .786. This pattern had .854.
Point D, where entry is effected, was a 1.618 ratio during the 14:00 candle period, which is conforming. Let's examine this area further.
The previous 13:00 candle touched the 138.2% extension level. Some would be tempted to enter here. If this was done, S/L options were the 161.8% and 200% levels. The 138.2 for Point D is a non-conforming ratio.
The aqua and yellow horizontal lines inside the box are the extension levels.
Yellow line are the 161.8% and 200% extension levels of B-C.
The aqua lines are the 138.2%, 161.8% and 200% extensions of A-B.
Move over lines to see labels.
For Take-Profit (TP) targets, we can plot retracement fibs using
High = 1.00104 (April 14th 06:00 high)
Low = .98608. (Apr 17th 14:00 low)
Once again, the key retrace levels are 23.6, 38.2, 50, and 61.8.
Another important resistance is the dotted red trendline line that is a result of Point X-B alignment.
Price rose and respected the 38.2, 50, and 61.8 levels.
As always, calculate R/R in advance.
Risk = 25 pips (just below A-B 161.8 price .9848)
to 38.2% = 53 pips
to 50% = 70 pips (intersected red X-B trendline)
to 61.8% = 85 pips
The ascent of retrace was not totally smooth. The bounce off of the 38.2% was severe and would have triggered a tight trailing S/L.
Last edited by fxbaja; 04-22-2012 at 12:33 AM.
EUR/USd Bearish Butterfly - APF - Fib Channel
On 4-hour chart, Andrew's Pitchfork (APF) plot:
Handle = Feb 29 04:00 high 1.34844
Upper corner = Apr 2nd 08:00 high 1.33794
Lower corner = Mar 15th 00:00 low 1.30027
Change name of APF to AL1, by going into Objects List.
Then insert indicator AML_V1-1, to get interior fibs for APF.
Aligned Fib Channel tool plot to APF's middle and upper forks, to get extensions.
We like to use 31.4%, which is close to the standard 38.2% fib ratio. The others are the same for the extensions (50%, 61.8%, etc.)
EUR/USd ended last week at the 31.4% FC extension.
We have the ZUP v86 indicator showing this peak is a 61.8% retrace of the Apr 2nd/16th high/low.
Now, let's switch this chart to the 1-hour time-frame. The ZUP V86 ended last week with a non-conforming Bearish Butterfly.
The weak part is X-B = .94 instead of .786.
X-D = 1.49 instead of 1.27 or 1.618
We have MurreyMath1.0 (MML), which shows decline off Friday's high move from the +1/8th to the 6/8th (on the 1-hour we get more intervals).
This decline also corresponds with the fib channel: from the 31.4% extension back down to the upper fork.
Today's 14:00 pivot low was a courtesy touch of the 78.6% retrace fib of C-D leg, as seen on the ZUP. Candles proceeded to close above the APF's upper fork and 6/8th MML.
3rd chart: if you want to use the Stoch OBOS candles, here's how it looked on 1-hour with default parameters. We had red at peak and just had green at bottom.
Price opened the new week with a gap to the downside from Friday's last hour low of 1.32090. The gap was closed precisely on Apr 23rd (Monday) during the 00:00 period. Price then proceeded on its decline.
Last edited by fxbaja; 04-23-2012 at 04:27 PM.
AUD/USD SQ9(Price) & FTZ
We look at AUD/USD 1-Hour with SQ9(Price) using Apr 13th high 1.4515, direction down.
Fib Time Zone (FTZ) plot from that same point, to 2nd peak on Apr 17th 16:00 1.4175.
We only use one fib extension, the 1.618, which is the Golden Ratio. This landed on Apr 19th 08:00.
This time corresponded with the 61.8% retrace of prior swings high/low of:
Apr 17th 16:00 1.4175 and Apr 18th 13:00 1.03395
Trading a SELL to the 138.2% extension from this plot gained about 50 pips and had about 2:1 R/R. This move is basically between the SQ9 levels 68 and 113-degree.
Swing traders that kept this SELL position are guided by the rest of the extension levels. The lowest pivot at 1.0248 was at the SQ9 180-degree, today during the 03:00 period.
The bounce up off the 138.2 was harsh, so you'd risk almost all of the profit, before seeing price decline back in the direction of the trade. Conversely, if exited at the 138.2, re-entry for another SELL was there at that pullback to the 68-degree level.
EUR/USD SQ9 & Fib Extension
After some gyrations post FOMC and FED press conference yesterday, EUR/USD attempting to hurdle to next extension level.
Attached 4-hour chart plots SQ9(Price) using Apr 16th pivot low for StartPrice of 1.29937 and direction up.
We also plot fib retracement: using Apr 16th low /Apr 17th high 1.29937/1.31714
The cluster is at the 161.8% extension 1.32812, which is the same as the SQ9 225-degree.
This is a potential SELL opportunity.
Price action had previously respected the 127.2, which is the same as the 180-degree. Nearby 138.2 also produced a bounce, showing adherence.
Max S/L just above 248-degree (same as 178.6% extension) 1.33111
TP options include back down to 180-degree/127.2 price level of 1.32197.
We can conveniently see gross R/R as 2:1 in number of SQ9 levels. However, after adding spread & cushion is will be less.
An aggressive approach would be to use a smaller S/L. One way to measure this is to take your fib channel tool and plot off the Mars 135 and 180-degree (not shown). The 61.8% extension to the upside = 1.32950.
FOR DOWNLOAD: SQ9(Price 5760) & Gann_SQ9
We assume you're talking about SQ9(Price), as there are dozens of indicators featured in this thread. Some as available for download in the Gann Is The Mann thread.
While in this thread, use the button "Search this thread", and enter SQ9(Price). That will bring up some examples. You need to read through them.
The SQ9(Price) 5760 was modified to draw more lines for day trading the plot of bigger moves.
If you want to have it identify StartPrice automatically, then use the other version Gann_SQ9.
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